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KINKYO TakujiGraduate School of Economics / Division of EconomicsProfessor
Research activity information
■ Award- 2015 Lifescience Glogal, Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Editor's Choice, Kinkyo, T. and Hamori, S., (2014) Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Integration of the Securities Market in East Asia, Journal of REviews on Global Economics, Vol.3, pp.293-309Official journal
- One primary objective of the early warning system literature is to construct more accurate financial vulnerability prediction models and investigate the mechanisms and key factors that differentiate healthy from vulnerable financial states. Despite the importance of identifying and predicting financial vulnerabilities, existing research does not fully explain whether—and how—the financial behavior associated with corporate bankruptcy differs across crises. This study investigates (1) whether the financial mechanisms of corporate bankruptcy differ across three crises—the Global Financial Crisis, the European debt crisis, and the COVID-19 crisis; (2) whether these crises differ from tranquil periods before the Global Financial Crisis and after the European debt crisis; and (3) how these differences manifest. To conduct this analysis, we introduce a unique framework based on a random forest model, utilizing a corporate bankruptcy dataset spanning 2002–2023. The results show that the bankruptcy mechanisms during the Global Financial Crisis and the European debt crisis are not significantly different, whereas the COVID-19 crisis exhibits distinct characteristics. Additionally, we find that “Credit period days,” “Collection period days,” “Gross margin,” and “Solvency ratio (asset-based)” are key financial factors distinguishing these events.MDPI AG, Aug. 2025, Risks, 13(8) (8), 158 - 158, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd, Jul. 2025, The Singapore Economic Review, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- As corporate sector stability is crucial for economic resilience and growth, machine learning has become a widely used tool for constructing early warning systems (EWS) to detect financial vulnerabilities more accurately. While most existing EWS research focuses on bankruptcy prediction models, bankruptcy signals often emerge too late and provide limited early-stage insights. This study employs a random forest approach to systematically examine whether a company’s insolvency status can serve as an effective multi-stage financial distress EWS. Additionally, we analyze how the financial characteristics of insolvent companies differ from those of active and bankrupt firms. Our empirical findings indicate that highly accurate insolvency models can be developed to detect status transitions from active to insolvent and from insolvent to bankrupt. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the financial determinants of these transitions differ significantly. The shift from active to insolvent is primarily driven by structural and operational ratios, whereas the transition from insolvent to bankrupt is largely influenced by further financial distress in operational and profitability ratios.MDPI AG, Apr. 2025, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 18(4) (4), 195 - 195, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- World Scientific Pub Co Pte Ltd, Feb. 2025, The Singapore Economic Review, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- IEEE, Jul. 2024, 2024 16th IIAI International Congress on Advanced Applied Informatics (IIAI-AAI), 541 - 544International conference proceedings
- Corresponding, Mar. 2024, Journal of Economics & Business Administration, 228(1) (1), 163 - 176, EnglishClassifying Currencies Using Common FacotorsResearch institution
- Corresponding, Elsevier BV, Jun. 2023, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 85, 101764 - 101764, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Wiley, Apr. 2022, International Journal of Finance & Economics, 27(2) (2), 1769 - 1784, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Feb. 2022, 国民経済雑誌, 225(2) (2), 29 - 44, EnglishAsian Currency Market IntegrationResearch institution
- Elsevier BV, Jan. 2022, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 59, 101598 - 101598, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Elsevier BV, Nov. 2021, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 58, 101515 - 101515, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Elsevier BV, Oct. 2021, International Review of Financial Analysis, 77, 101855 - 101855, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- This study analyzes the importance of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Co-Location dataset (TSE Co-Location dataset) to forecast the realized volatility (RV) of Tokyo stock price index futures. The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is a popular linear regression model used to forecast RV. This study expands the HAR model using the TSE Co-Location dataset, stock full-board dataset and market volume dataset based on the random forest method, which is a popular machine learning algorithm and a nonlinear model. The TSE Co-Location dataset is a new dataset. This is the only information that shows the transaction status of high-frequency traders. In contrast, the stock full-board dataset shows the status of buying and selling dominance. The market volume dataset is used as a proxy for liquidity and is recognized as important information in finance. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to use the TSE co-location dataset. The experimental results show that our model yields a higher forecast out-of-sample accuracy of RV than the HAR model. Moreover, we find that the TSE Co-Location dataset has become more important in recent years, along with the increasing importance of high-frequency trading.{MDPI} {AG}, May 2021, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(5) (5), 215 - 215, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Elsevier BV, Jan. 2021, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 56, 101360 - 101360, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Elsevier BV, Nov. 2020, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101289 - 101289, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In this study, we analyze the degree of intra-regional integration in European and Asian stock markets. We first use the methods of wavelet multiple correlation (WMC)and wavelet multiple cross-correlation(WMCC)to examine the multiscale correlations of stock returns in the two regions. Then, we estimate the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index for the stock returns and their wavelet details at each scale. The results indicate that the integration of European stock returns is stronger than that of Asian stock returns at every time horizons. They also indicate that France is the primary contributors to stock market integration in the eurozone, while Hong Kong and Singapore assume similar roles in Asia.Corresponding, 神戸大学経済経営学会, Jun. 2020, 国民経済雑誌 = Journal of economics & business administration, 221(6) (6), 21 - 34, EnglishScientific journal
- Elsevier BV, Apr. 2020, Research in International Business and Finance, 52, 101174 - 101174[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Informa UK Limited, Feb. 2020, Applied Economics Letters, 27(4) (4), 255 - 261, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Oct. 2019, Applied Economics Letters, 26(18) (18), 1548 - 1551[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Elsevier BV, Sep. 2019, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101067 - 101067, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Wiley, Jun. 2019, Economic Inquiry, 57(4) (4), 2017 - 2034, Abkhazian[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Informa UK Limited, May 2019, Applied Economics Letters, 27(5) (5), 400 - 405, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Elsevier BV, Apr. 2019, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 48, 567 - 581[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Informa UK Limited, Mar. 2019, Applied Economics Letters, 26(6) (6), 465 - 472[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jan. 2019, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1) (1), 9 - 9, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Dec. 2018, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11(4) (4), 86 - 86, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Nov. 2018, Proceedings - International Conference on Pattern Recognition, 2018-August, 830 - 835, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- MDPI, May 2018, Sustainability (Switzerland), 10(5) (5), 1530, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Mar. 2018, JSAI Technical Report, SIG-FIN-020, 90 - 96, JapaneseLSTMネットワークによる企業財務データの回帰分析Symposium
- Allied Business Academies, Dec. 2017, Journal of Management Information and Decision Science, 20(Specialissue1) (Specialissue1), 1 - 24, EnglishForecasting the vulnerability of industrial economic activities: Predicting the bankruptcy of companies[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Mar. 2017, JSAI Technical Report, SIG-FIN-018, 111 - 118, Japanese深層生成モデルによる時系列ネットワークの低次元埋め込みSymposium
- Nov. 2016, Economics Letters, 148, 118 - 121, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 神戸大学経済経営学会, Sep. 2016, Journal of Economics and Business and Administration, 214(3) (3), 17 - 32, JapaneseScientific journal
- Corresponding, Informa UK Limited, Jul. 2016, Applied Economics Letters, 24(6) (6), 422 - 426, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Mar. 2016, Applied Economics, 48(12) (12), 1130 - 1139, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Routledge, Feb. 2016, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol.52(Issue 3) (Issue 3), 722 - 723, EnglishRevisiting the Roles of Financial Access and Deepening for Growth and Reducing Inequality[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Informa UK Limited, Jan. 2016, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(3) (3), 733 - 742, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Springer India, Jan. 2015, Global Economic Cooperation: Views from G20 Countries, 211 - 226, English[Refereed]In book
- 神戸大学経済経営学会, Sep. 2014, Journal of Economics & Business Administration, 210(3) (3), 55 - 67, JapaneseResearch institution
- Lead, Lifescience Global, Aug. 2014, Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 3, 293 - 309, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Lead, Apr. 2014, Japan and the European Union in the Global Economy (Bruegel Blueprint Series Vol. XXII), EnglishEast Asia’s Integration: Progress Made and Implications for EU-Japan CooperationSymposium
- Corresponding, Mar. 2014, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 29, 1 - 12, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Lead, Springer India, Dec. 2013, Global Cooperation Among G20 Countries: Responding to the Crisis and Restoring Growth, 101 - 108, EnglishIn book
- Lead, Jan. 2013, The Palgrave Handbook of EU-Asia Relations, EnglishCoordinating Regional Financial Arrangements with the IMF: Challenges to Asia and Lessons from the EU[Refereed]In book
- Kobe University, Oct. 2012, Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 第206巻第4号63-78頁(4) (4), 63 - 78, JapaneseSecurities Market Integration in East AsiaScientific journal
- Aug. 2012, Economics Bulletin, Volume 32, Issue 3, EnglishDe facto exchange rate regimes in post-crisis Asia[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 世界経済研究協会, Mar. 2011, 世界経済評論, 3/4月号(通巻658号)Vol.55 No.2(2) (2), 43 - 50, Japanese東アジアの金融協力:チェンマイ・イニシアティブの現状と課題Scientific journal
- Kobe University, Feb. 2011, 神戸大学経済学研究年報, 第57号, 19 - 38, JapaneseScientific journal
- Lead, World Scientific Publishing Co., Jan. 2011, Two Asias: The Emerging Postcrisis Divide, 155 - 176, EnglishIn book
- Kobe University, Nov. 2010, 国民経済雑誌, 202(5) (5), 61 - 70, Japanese世界金融危機の東アジア新興国経済への影響Scientific journal
- Kobe University, Feb. 2010, 神戸大学経済学研究年報, 第56号, 59 - 76, JapaneseScientific journal
- Jul. 2007, World Development, 35(7) (7), 1120 - 1133, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jan. 2007, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32(1) (1), 111 - 124, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Taylor and Francis, 01 Jan. 2013, Financial Globalization and Regionalism in East Asia, 1 - 208, EnglishOthers
- World Scientific Publishing Co., 01 Jan. 2012, Global Linkages and Economic Rebalancing in East Asia, 1 - 213, EnglishOthers
- Mar. 2011, 神戸大学経済経営学会編『経済学ハンドブック』, 第25章, Japanese新興国経済 東アジアの経済統合Introduction scientific journal
- Contributor, アジア経済研究所, Mar. 2020『変容するASEAN商業銀行』第3章「財務諸表によるASEAN商業銀行の特徴の分析」
- Contributor, ミネルヴァ書房, Oct. 2017, Japanese「現代東アジア経済論」第6章「国際金融環境と東アジア経済」Scholarly book
- Joint editor, World Scientific, Apr. 2016, English, ISBN: 9789814723565Moving up the ladder : development challenges for low and middle-income Asia
- Joint editor, World Scientific, Jan. 2016, English, ISBN: 9789814713399Financial linkages, remittances, and resource dependence in East Asia
- Joint editor, Routledge, Nov. 2013, English, ISBN: 9780415659840Financial globalization and regionalism in East Asia
- Joint editor, World Scientific, May 2012, English, ISBN: 9789814412841Global linkages and economic rebalancing in East Asia
- Single work, 東洋経済新報社, Sep. 2011, Japanese, ISBN: 9784492443842為替レート制度選択の経済分析 : 東アジア持続的成長の条件
- アジア政経学会2023年秋季大会, Nov. 2023, Japanese自由論題3「金融」(司会)Oral presentation
- 日本金融学会2023年秋季大会, Sep. 2023, JapaneseA common-factors approach to currency classificationOral presentation
- 日本金融学会2022年秋季大会, Nov. 2022, EnglishHedging effectiveness of bitcoin and gold: evidence from G7 stock marketsOral presentation
- 日本金融学会2022年春季大会, May 2022, EnglishBenefits and costs: The impact of capital control on growth-at-risk(討論者)Oral presentation
- 日本金融学会2020年秋季大会, Nov. 2020, Japanese購買力平価が為替レートのアンカーだというのはどういうことか(討論者)Oral presentation
- Japan-Republic of Korea Economic Relations for the Future (Asian Development Bank Institute), Nov. 2019, EnglishFIVE OBSERVATIONS ABOUT JAPAN-ROK ECONOMIC RELATIONS[Invited]Nominated symposium
- WEAI 14th. International Conference, Jan. 2018, English, Newcastle, Australia, International conferenceFORECASTING THE VULNERABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: PREDICTING THE BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIESOral presentation
- 日本金融学会2017年度春季大会, Sep. 2017, Japanese, 鹿児島大学, Domestic conferenceThe Effect of the 2015 Renminbi Reform on the Relationship between Onshore and Offshore Exchange Markets(討論者)Oral presentation
- 日本金融学会2017年度春季大会, May 2017, Japanese, 早稲田大学, Domestic conference中国・アセアン経済の行方とアジアの金融・通貨秩序(討論者)[Invited]Nominated symposium
- Post-Crisis Restructuring of Trade and Financial Architecture: Asian and European Perspectives, Dec. 2015, English, Asian Development Bank Institute (Tokyo), International conferenceASEAN Banking Integration[Invited]Nominated symposium
- International Conference on Applied Econometrics in Hawaii, Nov. 2015, English, Honolulu, Hawaii, International conferenceHousing Wealth and Aggregate Fluctuation: The perspective of Large-Open economy (Discussion)Others
- Workshop on Economic Stagnation and Deflation: Challenges for Japan in Comparative Perspective, Jul. 2015, English, SOAS, University of London, Domestic conferenceThe Spillover Effects of Japanese Economic Shocks in the Asian Pacific Region[Invited]Nominated symposium
- 日本金融学会2015年度春季大会, May 2015, Japanese, 東京経済大学, Domestic conference中国の金融(座長)Others
- Managing Financial Integration and Inclusiveness in ASEAN, Sep. 2014, English, ADB Institute & Minstry of Finance, Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, International conferenceFinancial Development, Inclusiveness and Openness[Invited]Nominated symposium
- 日本金融学会2014年度春季大会, May 2014, Japanese, 日本金融学会, 慶応大学, Domestic conference中国におけるシャドーバンキング(討論)Others
- Governance and Development: Views from G20 Countries, Sep. 2013, Japanese, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India, International conferenceMacroprudential Regulations: Challenges and ImplicationsOral presentation
- 2nd. OECD-AMRO Joint Asian Regional Roundtable, Jul. 2013, English, OECD & AMRO, Singapore, International conferencePortfolio Investment Flows and Capital Controls[Invited]Nominated symposium
- アジア政経学会2012年度全国大会, Oct. 2012, Japanese, 関西学院大学, Domestic conference金満アジアの課題(討論者)Others
- Global Economic Cooperation: Views from G20 Countries, Oct. 2012, English, ICRIER, India, New Delhi, India, International conferenceExchange Rate Flexibility and Economic Rebalancing in ChinaOral presentation
- 日本金融学会2012年度春季大会, May 2012, Japanese, 立正大学, Domestic conference金融危機後の北東アジアにおける金融協力(討論者)Others
- The 6th. Trilateral Workshop of CASS-KIEP-PRI, May 2012, English, 中国社会科学院, 中国 北京, International conferenceExchange Rate Regimes and Financial Integration in East Asia: Empirical Evidence and Policy ImplicationOral presentation
- Singapore Economic Review Conference, Aug. 2011, English, Singapore Economic Review, Singapore, International conferenceDe Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Post-Crisis AsiaOral presentation
- 日本金融学会2010年度秋季大会, Sep. 2010, Japanese, 日本金融学会, 神戸市, Domestic conferenceアジア通貨危機後の為替レート制度Oral presentation
- 京都大学経済研究所主催国際シンポジウム,“Global Shock Wave: Rethinking Asia’s Future in Light of The Worldwide Financial Crisis and Depression 2008-2010”, Sep. 2010, English, 京都大学経済研究所, 京都市, Domestic conferenceThe Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on East Asia and its Implication for Regional CooperationOral presentation
- 神戸大学金融研究会, Jun. 2010, Japanese, 神戸大学金融研究会, 神戸市, Domestic conference東アジア新興国の為替相場制度Oral presentation
■ Research Themes
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(C), 基盤研究(C), 神戸大学, Apr. 2022 - Mar. 2027, Principal investigatorCOVID-19パンデミックの東アジア金融システムへの影響
- 学術研究助成基金助成金/基盤研究(C), Apr. 2018 - Mar. 2022, Principal investigatorCompetitive research funding
- 科学研究費補助金/基盤研究(A), Apr. 2017 - Mar. 2021Competitive research funding
- 学術研究助成基金助成金/挑戦的研究(萌芽), Apr. 2017 - Mar. 2019Competitive research funding
- 学術研究助成基金助成金/基盤研究(C), Apr. 2015 - Mar. 2018, Principal investigatorCompetitive research funding
- 科学研究費補助金/基盤研究(C), Apr. 2012 - Mar. 2015, Principal investigatorCompetitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up, Kobe University, 2009 - 2010, Principal investigatorThis study has examined the progress of financial reforms in East Asia after the crisis of 1997-98. It has shown that more flexible exchange rates and prudent financial systems have made Asian economies less vulnerable to external shocks. It has also shown that China's exchange rate system remains rigid, preventing macroeconomic adjustments necessary for the resolution of global imbalances. In addition, the study has discussed the significance and limitation of East Asian financial cooperation from the perspectives of macroeconomic adjustments and financial stability in the region.Competitive research funding