Research activity information

• On the Possibility of Arbitrage in Kanazawa, Nagoya, Morioka, and Mizusawa City Horse Racing

  Masahiro ASHIYA

  Sep. 2023, 国民経済雑誌, 227(5) (5), 55 - 62, Japanese

  Research institution


• Sales Volume, Noise Traders, and Efficiency of the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Jul. 2023, Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 16(1) (1), 3 - 14, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal


• FX市場におけるゴトー日アノマリーを利用した投資戦略と獲得利益額

  櫻場正悟, 芦谷政浩

  Dec. 2021, 国民経済雑誌, 224(6) (6), 35 - 46, Japanese

  Research institution

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• 高知競馬における裁定機会の出現頻度

  芦谷政浩

  Nov. 2021, 国民経済雑誌, 224(5) (5), 51 - 62, Japanese

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• 園田競馬・姫路競馬における裁定取引の実行可能性

  芦谷政浩

  Apr. 2020, 国民経済雑誌, 221(4) (4), 31 - 36, Japanese

  Research institution

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• The Frequency of Arbitrage Opportunities in Mombetsu City Horse Racing

  ASHIYA MASAHIRO

  Apr. 2018, 国民経済雑誌, 217(4) (4), 49 - 59, Japanese

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• The Frequency of Arbitrage Opportunities in Mombetsu City Horse Racing

  ASHIYA MASAHIRO

  Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, May 2017, Discussion Paper Series No. 1713, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, No. 1713, Japanese

  Research institution

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• On the efficiency of the betting market of Arao city horse race

  ASHIYA MASAHIRO

  Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, Jul. 2016, Discussion Paper Series No. 1618, Japanese

  Research society

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market

  ASHIYA MASAHIRO

  Apr. 2015, Journal of Sports Economics, 16(3) (3), 322 - 330, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• On the Possibility of Arbitrage in Ohi, Kawasaki, Funabashi, and Urawa City Horse Racing

  ASHIYA MASAHIRO

  May 2014, Kokumin Keizai Zassi, 209(5) (5), 59 - 63, Japanese

  Research institution

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• The Frequency of Arbitrage Opportunities in Saga City Horse Racing

  ASHIYA MASAHIRO

  神戸大学経済経営学会, Jun. 2013, Kokumin Keizai Zassi, 207(6) (6), 53 - 59, Japanese

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Demographic Changes, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence

  HARUYAMA TETSUGEN, ASHIYA MASAHIRO, HAMORI SHIGEYUKI

  Kobe University, 2013, Kobe University Economic Review, 59, 1 - 23, English

  Research institution

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• 日本の公営競馬における『競馬必勝法』の具体例

  ASHIYA Masahiro

  Jun. 2012, 国民経済雑誌, 第205巻第6号、pp.81-91, Japanese

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• A Survey on the Favorite-Longshot Bias

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Aug. 2010, Kokumin Keizai Zassi, 202(2) (2), 13 - 28, Japanese

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Aug. 2010, Journal of Forecasting, 29(5), pp.435-441, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Mar. 2009, Journal of Forecasting, 28(2), pp.120-130, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Japanese individual forecasters: are they all equal in forecasting ability?

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Aug. 2008, Kokumin Keizai Zassi, 198巻(2号) (2号), pp.55 - 60, Japanese

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Consensus and Accuracy of Japanese GDP Forecasts

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Oct. 2007, Applied Economics Letters, 14(13), pp.969-974, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Forecast Accuracy of the Japanese Government: Its Year-Ahead GDP Forecast Is Too Optimistic

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Jan. 2007, Japan and the World Economy, 19 (1), pp.68-85, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Arbitrage on foot in Japanese National High School Championship at Koshien

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Sep. 2006, Kokumin Keizai Zassi, 第194巻(3号) (3号), pp.41 - 55, Japanese

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Forecast Accuracy and Product Differentiation of Japanese Institutional Forecasters

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Apr. 2006, International Journal of Forecasting, 22 (2), pp.395-401, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal


• Are 16-Months-Ahead Forecasts Useful? A Directional Analysis of Japanese GDP Forecasts

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Apr. 2006, Journal of Forecasting, 25, 3, pp.201-207, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• An Evaluation of GDP Forecasts Made by Japanese Individual Economists

  Masahiro Ashiya

  2006, Kobe University Economic Review, 51, pp.65-75., English

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Testing the Rationality of Forecast Revisions Made by the IMF and the OECD

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Jan. 2006, Journal of Forecasting, 25, 1 pp.25-36, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Twenty-two Years of Japanese Institutional Forecasts

  芦谷 政浩

  Mar. 2005, Applied Financial Economics Letters, 1(2) 79-84, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• The Directional Accuracy of 15-Months- Ahead Forecasts Made by the IMF

  芦谷 政浩

  May 2003, Applied Economics Letters, 10(6) 331-333, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Testing the Rationality of Japanese GDP Forecasts: The Sign of Forecast Revision Matters

  芦谷 政浩

  Feb. 2003, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 50(2) 263-269, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Sequential Entry in a Vertically Differentiated Market

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Sep. 2002, Japanese Economic Review, 53(3), pp.315-336

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Accuracy and Rationality of Japanese Institutional Forecasters

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Apr. 2002, Japan and the World Economy, 14(2), pp.203-213

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)


• Herd Behavior of Japanese Economists

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Nov. 2001, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 46(3), pp.343-346

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal


• Weak Entrants Are Welcome

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Aug. 2000, International Journal of Industrial Organization, 18(6), pp.975-984

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)

• Economic Forecasting

  ASHIYA Masahiro

  Joint work, Chapter 6, pp.163-179, Nova Science Publishers, Inc., Jun. 2010, English, ISBN: 9781607410683

  Scholarly book


• microeconomics

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Single work, yuhikaku, Dec. 2009, Japanese, ISBN: 9784641163508


• Inflation: Causes and Effects

  Masahiro Ashiya

  Joint work, Chapter 2, pp.27-57, Nova Science Publishers, Oct. 2009, English, ISBN: 9781607418238

  Scholarly book

• Forecast Accuracy of the Japanese Government

  芦谷 政浩

  日本経済学会秋季大会, Oct. 2003, English, 日本経済学会, 明治大学, Domestic conference

  Others

• 公営賭博市場におけるtail eventと穴馬バイアス・逆穴馬バイアスの発生要因

  芦谷 政浩

  日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(C), 基盤研究(C), 神戸大学, Apr. 2022 - Mar. 2026, Principal investigator


• Sales volume and efficiency of the racetrack betting market

  ASHIYA Masahiro

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Kobe University, Apr. 2018 - Mar. 2022, Principal investigator

  This project examines 3270 races of Japanese thoroughbred racetrack betting market. It finds that market efficiency improves with the sales volume and deteriorates with the increase of less-informed bettors or the expansion of the bet universe.


• Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market

  Ashiya Masahiro

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Kobe University, Apr. 2012 - Mar. 2016, Principal investigator

  This research project has found arbitrage opportunities in the Japanese racetrack betting market, where risk-free profits are guaranteed. There are 175 thoroughbred races operated by Arao city in the period of September 30 through December 23, 2011. Among them, arbitrage opportunities are found in Race 5 on October 20 and Race 11 on November 25. This result is published in Ashiya, M. (2015) “Lock! Risk-Free Arbitrage in the Japanese Racetrack Betting Market.” Journal of Sports Economics, 16(3), April, pp.322-330.


• 経済的・社会的規制における市場の機能とその補正をめぐる法律学的・経済学的検討

  泉水 文雄

  科学研究費補助金／基盤研究(A), Apr. 2010 - Mar. 2013, Coinvestigator

  Competitive research funding


• CPI forecasts of Japanese economists

  ASHIYA Masahiro

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Kobe University, Apr. 2009 - Mar. 2011, Principal investigator

  This research project evaluates the rationality of 42 Japanese forecasters using monthly consumer price index(CPI) forecasts. It finds that 86% of zero-month forecasts are inferior to the "same-as-the-last-month" forecast, and that most forecasters fail to utilize the latest realization of CPI. Furthermore, the same tendency was observed in one-month forecasts and two-month forecasts : almost all forecasts are irrational in the sense that their forecast errors could be reduced using the latest realization of CPI at the time the forecasts were made. The forecast error of the consensus forecast is smaller than that of a typical forecaster, but it could be reduced using the latest realization of CPI.


• Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters

  ASHIYA Masahiro

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Kobe University, Apr. 2006 - Mar. 2008, Principal investigator

  本研究課題では、「予測情報を顧客獲得に利用している企業は、予測精度を犠牲にしても他企業との差別化を図って、予測的中時の注目度を高めようとする」という仮説を検証し、日本の研究機関の実質GDP予測データにこの仮説が当てはまる事を示した。本研究課題の成果は、Ashiya, M. (2009) "Strategic Bias and Professional Affiliations of Macroeconomic Forecasters."J. of Forecasting, 28, 120-130.として刊行された。


• 技術進歩と経済成長に対する知的財産権と競争の長期的効果についての理論的分析

  春山 鉄源

  科学研究費補助金／基盤研究(B), Apr. 2005 - Mar. 2008, Coinvestigator

  Competitive research funding