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SEYA HajimeGraduate School of Engineering / Department of Civil EngineeringAssociate Professor
Research activity information
■ Paper- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2024, Japanese Journal of JSCE, 80(2) (2), n/a - n/aScientific journal
- 2024, Geographical AnalysisScientific journal
- Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Nov. 2022, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 69(1) (1), 1 - 28Scientific journal
- Transportation networks have a hierarchical structure, and the spatial scale of their impact on urban growth differs depending on the hierarchy. However, in empirical analyses of the impacts that transportation has on land use and prices, such hierarchy is often examined using dummy variables, and the network dependence and heterogeneity of impacts are often ignored. Thus, this study develops a spatial regression method that considers not only spatial dependence, but also network dependence within a hierarchical transportation network. This method was developed by extending the random effects eigenvector spatial filtering approach. Subsequently, it was applied to a pre-existing analysis that focused on the impacts that high-speed rail (HSR) had on residential land prices in Japan over the last 30 years. The results of the analysis suggested that HSR lines had hierarchical effects on residential land prices. The results also provide interesting insight into the ongoing problem of Japanese urban hierarchy; that is, the excessive concentration of population and industry in the Tokyo metropolitan area.Frontiers Media SA, May 2022, Frontiers in Sustainable Cities, 4Scientific journal
- Elsevier, 2020, Spatial Analysis Using Big Data, 113 - 158[Refereed]In book
- Elsevier, 2020, Urban Systems Design, 199 - 255[Refereed]In book
- Apr. 2019, JOURNAL OF URBAN MANAGEMENT, 8(1) (1), 89 - 108, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2019, Environmetrics, EnglishSpatially filtered unconditional quantile regression: Application to a hedonic analysis[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2019, Applied Economics Letters, EnglishParameter estimation of the spatial panel stochastic frontier model with random effects[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2018, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 74(5) (5), I_715 - I_734Scientific journal
- 2018, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), Japanese大規模小売店舗の出店が既存小売店舗の撤退及び売上げに与えた影響[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2018, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), Japanese社会的相互作用に着目したエビデンスベース研究の展開と土木計画への応用可能性[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2018, Journal of Urban Management, EnglishStudy on the substantiation of location equilibrium in the CUE Model[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2018, Transportation, EnglishDecisions on truck parking place and time on expressways: An analysis using digital tachograph data[Refereed]Scientific journal
- May 2017, EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT AND INFRASTRUCTURE RESEARCH, 17(3) (3), 411 - 424, EnglishElderly's heterogeneous responses to topographical factors in travel mode choice within a hilly neighborhood: An analysis based on combined GPS and paper-based surveys[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Feb. 2017, SPATIAL STATISTICS, 19, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2017, WORLD CONFERENCE ON TRANSPORT RESEARCH - WCTR 2016, 25, 1820 - 1828, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 2017, 土木学会論文集D3(土木計画学), Japanese交通サービス水準と活動機会の関連性分析-行動データに基づく活動機会の計測-[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2017, Asian Transport Studies, EnglishInfluences of tour complexity and trip flexibility on stated commuting mode: A case of mass rapid transit in Ho Chi Minh City[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jul. 2016, LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING, 151, 89 - 102, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jul. 2016, JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT GEOGRAPHY, 55, 1 - 10, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Elsevier BV, Mar. 2016, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 85, 123 - 134, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Feb. 2016, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH, 13(2) (2), English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- THE JAPANESE SOCIETY FOR GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES, 2016, GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES, 71(3) (3), 118 - 132, Japanese
- Springer International Publishing, 2016, Urban Resilience, 25 - 43[Refereed]In book
- 2016, 土木学会論文集D3(土木計画学), Japanese非市場的相互作用を考慮した住宅地区住民の買物目的地選択行動のモデル分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jan. 2016, APPLIED ENERGY, 162, 1336 - 1344, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Elsevier BV, Nov. 2015, Applied Energy, 158, 255 - 262[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jul. 2015, GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, 47(3) (3), 284 - 299, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- OpenEdition, Mar. 2015, Articulo, (14) (14)[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Institution of Engineering and Technology, Feb. 2015, IET Intelligent Transport Systems, 9(1) (1), 38 - 49, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- CRC Press, Jan. 2015, Remote Sensing of Water Resources, Disasters, and Urban Studies, 3, 599 - 612, EnglishIn book
- Japan Association for Real Estate Sciences, 2015, The Japanese Journal of Real Estate Sciences, 29(1) (1), 40 - 45, Japanese
- 2015, CLEAN, EFFICIENT AND AFFORDABLE ENERGY FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE, 75, 2751 - 2756, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- Aug. 2014, JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 53(8) (8), 1886 - 1900, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Recently, model averaging techniques have been employed widely in empirical investigations as an alternative to the conventional model selection procedure, a procedure criticized because it disregards a major component of uncertainty, namely, uncertainty regarding the model itself, and, thus, it leads to the underestimation of uncertainty regarding the quantities of interest. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is one of the most popular model averaging techniques. Some studies indicate that BMA has cumbersome aspects. One of the major practical issues of using BMA is its substantial computational burden, which obstructs the process of obtaining exact estimates. A simulation method, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), is required to resolve this problem. Weighted-average least squares (WALS) estimation has been proposed as an alternative to BMA. The computational burden of WALS estimation is negligible; therefore, it does not require the MCMC method. Furthermore, WALS estimation has theoretical advantages over BMA estimation. This article presents two contributions to the WALS literature. First, it applies WALS to spatial lag/error models in order to consider spatial dependence. SeWiley, Apr. 2014, Geographical Analysis, 46(2) (2), 126 - 147, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- One of the principal triggers of industrial agglomeration is the reduction of costs for business trips; business trip data-based analysis seems to furnish a lot of insights about industrial agglomeration. Fortunately, business trip data is provided every 10 years in Tokyo metropolitan area, though, to the best of the authors' knowledge, no studies have discussed spatial industrial agglomeration using its small zone-level detailed business trip data. This study analyzes spatial industrial agglomeration in the 23 wards of Tokyo utilizing the small zone-level data. Specifically, we first show that the spatial scan statistics, a test statistics of spatial agglomeration, is readily applicable to the business trip data, and, then, spatial industrial agglomerations of the business trips in each industry classification are analyzed by applying the statistics. Besides, we analyze the difference between the agglomerations of the business trips and those of the number of employees too.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2014, INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW, 70(5) (5), I_343 - I_351, Japanese
- Elsevier Ltd, 2014, Energy Procedia, 61, 357 - 360, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 2014, INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON APPLIED ENERGY, ICAE2014, 61, 1446 - 1450, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 2014, INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON APPLIED ENERGY, ICAE2014, 61, 84 - 87, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- After the Tohoku Earthquake, the concept of urban resilience has been discussed widely in Japan. Resilient cities cannot be realized without considering energy and natural disaster risks. In this paper several land-use scenarios are used for the Tokyo Metropolitan Area in 2050 using a land-use model considering these two aspects. These scenarios consider the co-benefits of [i] change of urban form (compact city), [ii] adaptation to flooding risks, and [iii] diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) and solar photovoltaic (PV) panels. Also, in this paper the effects of emission factor change on direct/indirect CO2 emissions due to the shutdown of nuclear power plants after the earthquake are analyzed. The results suggest that the diffusion of PVs is more important in the non-nuclear world to reduce CO2 emissions, and that EVs still can contribute to CO2 emission reduction despite changes in emission factor. Also, compact urban form can effectively reduce CO2 emissions.Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Dec. 2013, Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS), Vol.10, 1025 - 1044, English[Refereed]
- Informa UK Limited, Sep. 2013, Annals of GIS, 19(3) (3), 153 - 168, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- May 2013, Regional Science and Urban Economics, 43(3) (3), 429 - 444, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Feb. 2013, Proceeding of the 10th Symposium of the International Urban Planning and Environment Association (UPE10 Next City), 14 - 26, EnglishGeographically explicit direct/indirect CO2 emission scenarios for a compact city in 2050[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- Intelligent Transportation Society of America, 2013, 20th ITS World Congress Tokyo 2013, EnglishAgent-based simulation of local electricity sharing system: Can we charge all EVs in a city only with the PVs?International conference proceedings
- CUPUM, 2013, Proceedings of CUPUM 2013: 13th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management - Planning Support Systems for Sustainable Urban Development, 1 - 22, EnglishIntegrated CO2 emissions evaluation system for climate change mitigation and flood risk adaptation scenariosInternational conference proceedings
- CUPUM, 2013, Proceedings of CUPUM 2013: 13th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management - Planning Support Systems for Sustainable Urban Development, 1 - 21, EnglishRegional electricity planning support system - electricity demand modeling with assimilation of smart electricity meter data -International conference proceedings
- CUPUM, 2013, Proceedings of CUPUM 2013: 13th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management - Planning Support Systems for Sustainable Urban Development, 1 - 17, EnglishA multilevel model based hedonic analysis of 3D visibility: An empirical case study of Yokohama BaycityInternational conference proceedings
- Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 2013, Econometrics: New Research, 63 - 88, EnglishApplication of model averaging techniques to spatial hedonic land price modelsIn book
- This paper extends the concept of our proposed (Yamagata and Seya, 2012) community-based disaster resilient electricity sharing system (DRESS) as a complement or alternative to a feed-in tariff(FiT) to achieve CO2-neutral transportation in cities. In our proposed system, electricity generated from widely introduced solar photovoltaic panels (PVs) is stored in the"cars not in use "in a city. For example, almost half of the cars in the central Tokyo metropolitan area are used only on weekends and thus are kept parked during weekdays. These cars represent a huge new potential storage depot if they were replaced by electric vehicles (EVs), that is, they could be used as storage batteries in a V2G system. The present study extends our proposed system in the following two senses. Firstly, different from Yamagata and Seya (2012), this paper uses actual ground area data (footprint) of each building to estimate PV supply, which may lead to more accurate estimations. The results show that although the entire electricity surplus (PV supply minus demand) could be stored without waste if 12% of the EVs not in use were utilized as storage batteries at an aggregate (city) level,there exist significant regional mismatches at the local district level. Hence secondly, based on the geographical PV supply-demand estimates, this paper analyses the possibility of local electricity sharing by looking at the geographical distribution of high-storage potential areas using a spatial clustering technique. This paper extends the concept of our proposed (Yamagata and Seya, 2012) community-based disaster resilient electricity sharing system (DRESS) as a complement or alternative to a feed-in tariff(FiT) to achieve CO2-neutral transportation in cities. In our proposed system, electricity generated from widely introduced solar photovoltaic panelsJapan Management Training Center, 2013, iscm, 7(3) (3), 75 - 82, English
- 2013, Proceedings of the International Conference on Dependable Systems and Networks, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- Elsevier Ltd, 2013, Applied Energy, 112, 1466 - 1474, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2013, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 69(5) (5), I_381 - I_389, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- COMPUTABLE URBAN ECONOMIC MODELS: CURRENT ISSUES AND PERSPECTIVESThe computable urban economic (CUE) model, which is completely based on microeconomic foundations, is an advanced form of the urban model that was developed from land-use transport-interaction models; further, theCUEmodel is both operational and practical. In recent times, theCUEmodel has been widely used as a tool for analyzing real urban economies and evaluating the implementation of urban polices in practice. In this paper, we discuss the current issues and perspectives of CUE models. First, the significance of the CUE models is reiterated by providing an overview of its prehistory and a description of their characteristics. Subsequently, the paper lists the current issues from the viewpoints of model construction, identification, and application as well as its practical applications and propagation. Finally, the paper presents important perspectives on the issues and discusses the directions for further theoretical developments.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Nov. 2012, INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW, 68(4) (4), 344 - 357, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Intelligent Transportation Society of America, 2012, 19th Intelligent Transport Systems World Congress, ITS 2012, EnglishIntegrated modelling for a future smart city: Toward efficient CO2 Management of EV transport using PV systemsInternational conference proceedings
- Jan. 2012, Economic Modelling, 29(1) (1), 60 - 71, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Dec. 2011, Procedia Social and Be-havioral Sciences, 21, 120-129, EnglishEmpirical Comparison of the Various Spatial Predication Models: In Spatial Econometrics, Spatial Statistics, and Semiparametric Statistics[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 環境科学会, Jun. 2011, Environmental Science, 24(3) (3), 169 - 179, Japanese[Refereed]
- Dec. 2009, Journal of Geographical Systems, 11(4) (4), 357 - 380, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jan. 2008, Paper in Regional Science, 87(3) (3), 385-401, EnglishMeasuring the Impact of Large-Scale Transportation Project on Land Price Using Spatial Statistical Models[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Elsevier, 02 Nov. 2019, Spatial Analysis Using Big Data: Methods and Urban Applications, 1 - 302, EnglishOthers
- 地理科学学会, Jul. 2016, 地理科学, 71(3) (3), 118 - 132, JapaneseLongitudinal Analysis of Factors Affecting Inter-prefecture Population Mobility based on a Discrete Choice Model with Spatial Context Dependency
- 2016, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 53空間競争に関する離散選択モデル-ガソリンスタンドの撤退行動の実証分析-
- 統計数理研究所, Jun. 2012, 統計数理, 60(1) (1), 3 - 25, JapaneseBasics of Applied Spatial Statistics : Spatial Statistics and Spatial Econometrics
- 日本気象学会, 30 Apr. 2012, 大会講演予講集, 101, 264, JapaneseP238 東京都市圏夏季を対象とした都市形態変化によるヒートアイランド緩和効果(ポスター・セッション)
- It is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate change. We are developing 1) dynamical downscaling method using socio-economic land use scenarios in Tokyo Metropolitan Area to add spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change for regional scale adaptation, 2) regional-scale assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change on flood and agriculture with the bottom-up perspective and landuse scenarios in Tokyo Metropolitan Area using an urban economic model. We will introduce our current perspectives and progress on this newly launched integrated research project.水文・水資源学会, 2012, Proceeding of Annual Conference, 25(0) (0), 260 - 260, Japanese
- 土木学会, 2012, 土木学会論文集. D3, 土木計画学, 68(5) (5), I_1 - 20, JapanesePERSPECTIVE ON APPLIED SPATIAL STATISTICS : FOCUSING ON THE APPLICATION TO INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING
- 日本測量協会, Nov. 2011, 測量, 61(11) (11), 14 - 16, Japanese平成22年度土木学会論文賞 受賞論文 便益計測への空間ヘドニック・アプローチの適用
- 2011, 応用地域学研究, (16) (16), 43 - 54, JapaneseApplying weighted-average least squares estimator to spatial econometric models
- 日本住宅総合センタ-, 2009, 住宅土地経済, (72) (72), 27 - 35, Japaneseヘドニック・アプローチを用いた便益評価と空間計量経済学・空間統計学
- Others, Routledge, 2018, EnglishAn overview of Asian studies on transport and land use, in Junyi Zhang and Cheng-Min Feng (eds.), Routledge Handbook of Transport in AsiaScholarly book
- Others, Springer, 2017, EnglishThe car-dependent life, in Junyi Zhang (eds.), Life-Oriented Behavioral Research for Urban PolicyScholarly book
- Others, Springer, 2016, EnglishUrban economics model for land-Use planning, in Yoshiki Yamagata, Yoshiki and Hiroshi Maruyama (eds.), Urban Resilience: A Transformative ApproachScholarly book
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 統計数理研究所, 01 Apr. 2024 - 31 Mar. 2029空間統計学と機械学習の融合による時空間回帰の開発・ツール化
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 金沢大学, 01 Apr. 2024 - 31 Mar. 2028都市狭域における交流促進に資する属性別滞在人口分析モデルの構築
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2024 - 31 Mar. 2026東京一極集中の要因の再検証
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2023 - 31 Mar. 2026東京一極集中の要因の再検証
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory), Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory), Kobe University, 30 Jun. 2022 - 31 Mar. 2025An Attempt to Improve Empirical Research in Economics Focusing on Statistical Hypothesis Testing
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2022 - 31 Mar. 2025Development of a comprehensive evaluation method for medical equalization policy本研究は,社会資本の中でも特に重要な医療の均霑化施策に着目し,権利のストック効果の計測のための包括的分析手法の構築を行うことを目的としている.医療の「均霑化」とは主に医療政策の分野で用いられる用語で,医療サービスの地域格差をなくし,全国どこでも誰もが等しく高度な医療を受ける権利を享受できるようにすることを目指しており,その中で交通整備に代表されるインフラストラクチャーの役割を明確にすることを目的としている.具体的には,需要面から①地域別将来患者数・病床数予測モデルの構築を行い小地域での医療需要の将来予測を可能にする.また供給面から②医療サービス供給モデルの構築を行い,地域における医療機関の参入・撤退要因を明らかにする.さらに,③両モデルを用いたシナリオ分析を通して,医療均霑化のための地域に応じた最適施策を提案し,社会資本が持つ権利のストック効果の定量化の方法を提案する. すでに,これらのモデル分析をすべて終え,様々な知見を得ることができた.特に,交通整備だけでは,医療の均霑化の実現は難しく,医療政策と同時に総合的に考えなければならないなどの結論が得られた.なお,最終年となるR6は各種政策提案の頑健性を確認すると同時に,公表に向けた準備を行う.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2022 - 31 Mar. 2025Development of a comprehensive evaluation method for medical equalization policy
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2022 - 31 Mar. 2025Designing convenient and sustainable demand responsible transport services in rural areas
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Tohoku University, 01 Apr. 2021 - 31 Mar. 2025Extraction of multi-scale spatial heterogeneity
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Hiroshima University, 01 Apr. 2021 - 31 Mar. 2024Urban and transport planning theories towards enhancing positive externalities
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Tohoku University, 01 Apr. 2020 - 31 Mar. 2024Infrastructure and design for next-generation transport systems in the MaaS + CV era本研究では,次世代交通システムの構成要素である「利用主体」「MaaS(Mobility as a Service)」「輸送主体」「CV(Connected Vehicle)による交通制御+道路インフラ」の特性を記述する数理モデルを構築し,これらの特性を数学的手法および数値計算によって解析し,さらに実データによって検証する.今年度(2020年度)は4年間の研究機関の初年度であり,各要素の条件を限定した比較的単純な数理モデルの構築と解析に着手した.今年度構築のモデルのポイントは,輸送主体やMaaSが多数のときの制度設計のための分析と,CVを前提とした優先制御の効果の分析の2点である.前者の分析においては,ネットワークに混雑が発生しない場合としうる場合の2つの状況を考慮した.混雑が発生しない場合は,輸送主体間に混雑による外部性が発生しないため,理想的状況では競争による最適な資源配分が期待できる.一方,混雑が発生する場合は,資源配分の調整が混雑により行われることになり,社会的損失が発生する.混雑料金や通行権のような規制により前者の状況を維持することが望ましい.それはできないときは,輸送主体間の外部性の排除を実現することが社会的に見てよりよい状況を実現するポイントとなる.後者の分析においては,輸送主体ごとに道路の容量を分割して割り振ることを制御の基本方策とした分析を行った.このための分析手法としては,信号機の適合制御で用いられる方法と,Cell Transmission ModelあるいはVariational Theoryを拡張した方法の2つを用いている.前者については大規模シミュレーションによる計算方法を開発している.後者については,いわゆるFirst in First Out制約の緩和による数理的手法を開発している.以上2点のほか,需要モデルの構築の着手も行っている.
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(B), 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2020 - 31 Mar. 2023EBPMに向けた交通インフラ・ストック効果計測手法の確立と事後評価への展開令和3年度の研究実績として,主に以下に示す成果を得た. 1.差の差分(DD) 法による交通インフラ・ストック効果計測手法の開発と実証 我が国における高速道路整備がIC 周辺地域の雇用や事業所立地に及ぼす因果効果をランダムサンプリングと傾向スコアマッチング・差分の差分法を用いて推定した.その上で,処置群をいくつかの距離帯に分けて推定を行うことによって,効果の及ぶ空間範囲を明らかにした.さらに,従来より採用される代替的手法である,処置群の周辺地域(あるいは,周辺地域に含まれる個体)を対照群とする手法との比較を通じて,提案手法の有効性を示した.また,Synthetic control法や複数処置変数を考慮した傾向スコア法など新たな手法を適用し,交通インフラ整備の影響に関する実証分析を行なった. 2.操作変数法による高速交通ネットワーク整備政策の事後評価 三大都市(東京・大阪・名古屋)を除いた地方部の都市雇用圏を対象として,高速道路ネットワークの整備水準を示す市場アクセスと集積の経済を示す雇用者密度がそれぞれ地価に及ぼす因果効果の推定を行った.その際,欠落変数や逆の因果性によるバイアスが生じる可能性を考慮し,明治時代の市場アクセスと人口密度を操作変数とする操作変数法を採用した.推定の結果,市場アクセスと雇用者密度に関して共に有意な結果が得られたことから,高速道路ネットワークによる他都市へのアクセス性や雇用者密度が地価に正の因果効果を及ぼすことが明らかとなった.最小二乗法と操作変数法の推定値の差が比較的に小さいことから,これまでの高速道路整備が地方都市圏間で大きな偏りが生じないように満遍なく進められてきた可能性が示唆された.
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(B), 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2020 - 31 Mar. 2023大規模小売店舗の影響に関する総合的実証的研究
本研究は,大規模小売店舗(大型店)の出店・撤退の影響を総合的な実証分析により把握することを目的としている.具体的には [I] 統計的因果推論アプローチ,[II] 構造推定アプローチ,[III] 行動モデルアプローチの3つのアプローチを用いて,研究期間内に以下の点を明らかにするものである.[I]大型店の出店・撤退が地域に与えた因果的な影響を統計的因果推論により明らかにする.[II] 経済モデルを用いて,[I]と合わせて複数のアプローチによる大型店の出店・撤退の影響分析を行うとともに,社会的厚生に与えた影響を明らかにする. [III]. 大型店の出店・撤退メカニズムを相互作用を考慮した行動モデルの開発と適用を通じて明らかにする. 昨年度は,[I],[II],[III] それぞれにおいて引き続き文献レビューとデータ収集を行うとともに,[I] については統計的因果推論手法の検証と関連する実証分析,[II],[III]については,アンケート調査に基づくモデル分析を行い,一定の成果を得た.具体的には,[I] については,「大型小売店データ」(東洋経済)と公示地価のデータセットを構築し,大規模小売店舗の出店が固定資産税に与える影響を考える上での基礎として,商業地価への影響を地方別に分析し,いくつかの有益な示唆を得た.また,その成果を論文として投稿した.[II],[III]については,アンケート分析に基づき,地域通貨両面市場における消費者と店舗の相互作用に関するモデル開発と実証分析を行った. - Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Hiroshima University, 01 Apr. 2019 - 31 Mar. 2023Redevelopment of theory in transport management during synergistic torrential rainfall disaster and its social implementation本申請課題では,今後も頻発することが見込まれる相乗型豪雨災害時の交通マネジメントのための理論再構築と社会への実装を行うことを目的とする。研究対象を被災直後から復興期までの4つの段階に分け,行動論の立場から主としてデータ収集,心理・行動分析,政策評価を行う。開発した一連の手法をパッケージ化したソフトウェア「TMRescue」(仮称)を,独自に収集した実データに適用し,実用性を検証する。 2021年度は、理論研究に基づきTMRescueの社会実装研究に取り掛かった。具体的には、 ①タイムライン型避難支援アーカイブの構築に関しては,タイムラインの考え方を援用し,土砂洪水氾濫被害に対応した避難支援アーカイブを構築した。被災者の意識や行動に関する自由回答形式のアンケート調査とSNSのテキストデータを取得し,機械学習手法の一つであるトピックモデルを適用して,住民避難の阻害要因を特定した。 ②災害時の動的交通情報提供システムの構築に関しては,災害発生後の公共交通運行の動的な交通情報提供システムを構築した。被災地区において居住地と避難所を結ぶグリーンスローモビリティによる移動支援の実験を行い,交通規制時の情報配信プラットホームを試行した。 ③時間・空間的集積を考慮した交通マネジメント施策の決定に関しては,災害時に関係者が自由にアクセスできるオープンデータとして,需給マッチング技術および需給均衡点の予測技術に公共交通情報提供技術を同期させ,被災後のTDM×TSMを実現するサービスコンテンツを試作した。 ④交通ネットワークの復旧優先度決定支援システムを用いた施策の評価に関しては,復旧優先度決定支援システムを相乗型豪雨災害の復旧・復興過程に適用し,道路区間の抽出,優先順位,交通容量の回復水準の妥当性について検証した。また,短時間で敷設可能な緊急仮橋モバイルブリッジの敷設効果を定量化した。
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(A), 基盤研究(A), 筑波大学, 01 Apr. 2018 - 31 Mar. 2023空間計量経済学における最重要課題への挑戦と新たな展開空間計量経済学の最重要課題を解決するとともにさらなる発展を目的として,[Ⅰ]空間重み行列の内生化に関する実証研究と新たなモデル開発 [Ⅱ]ビッグデータへの新たな対処法の開発 [Ⅲ]組成データ解析を応用した空間計量経済学の新たな展開 [Ⅳ]研究成果の公開・利用促進と日本における空間計量経済学分野の研究者の育成 の四つの課題に対し,それぞれ以下のとおり研究を実施した. [I] 空間重み行列Wの内生性を扱う方法論を整理した.また,昨年度に引き続き従来の空間計量経済モデルを計量経済学的に拡張することで実証研究への適用性を広げるため,いくつかのモデルにおいて新たに空間的自己相関を考慮することを試みた. [II] 100万オーダーの大規模な不動産データを用いて,深層学習,XGBoost等に代表される機械学習モデルと空間統計モデルの予測性能の比較を試みるとともに,新たな空間予測モデルの開発を行った.また計算効率を維持しながら,空間効果とその非空間効果を安定的に識別する方法,ならびに幅広い非ガウスデータをモデル化する方法を開発した. [III] 昨年度に引き続き,地理的加重回帰モデル(Geographically Weighted Regression: GWR)などに代表される「空間異質性」を考慮するモデルを,組成データに適用可能となるように拡張し,モデルの改良を行った. [IV] 本申請課題のメンバーが中心となって誘致した,空間計量経済学に関する国際組織であるSpatial Econometrics Association (SEA)の2021年度大会の全日程を確定させ, 5月26日-28日で開催するための準備を概ね完了した.前年10月に主催した国際ワークショップに参加した研究者からも多くの参加の見通しを得た.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2019 - 31 Mar. 2022Optimal level of infrastructure related expenses -theoretical and empirical approach-現在,わが国の公共事業関係費は対GDP比で3.2%であり,ピーク時と比較して半減している.他方,欧米諸国との比較では,依然高い水準にある.この水準が適切であるかどうかの判断は,単純な各国比較や時系列比較だけでなく,理論的・実証的・構造的アプローチが不可欠である.理論的分析では動学マクロ経済学のフレームでインフラストラクチャーの特性を再定義し,理論的な最適性がどのような要因に依存するのかを検証する.その結果,不確実性が高いわが国では,インフラストラクチャーの社会的価値が高く,より高い水準での整備が正当化されることを証明した.実証的分析では社会資本ストック額および公共事業関係費と経済成長力に関する因果推論を実施することで,様々な面でのインフラストラクチャーの効果の計測に成功している.さらに,構造的分析では,建設産業および入札制度,地理的要因などに着目し,わが国の公共事業の費用構造に関する特異性を分析した.これら,3つの分析を総合的に判断し,最終的にはわが国の公共事業関係費の現状水準は,最適水準と比較して低いことがあきらかになった.そして,その要因をインフラの意思決定手法にあると考え,公共財としてではないインフラストラクチャーの価値としてまとめた.そこでは,これまでインフラストラクチャーがサミュエルソンが定義した公共財としての価値のみに注目していることを指摘し,宇沢弘文が定義した社会的共通資本としての価値,すなわち,国民の基本的権利を満たすものとする価値が存在し,その価値観の共有こそが重要であることを示した.次年度は,これらの知見を欧米のインフラストラクチャー評価手法と比較検討することで,わが国におけるインフラストラクチャーの評価手法の再構築を目指す.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Hiroshima University, 18 Jul. 2018 - 31 Mar. 2022Cross-border Regional Development with Diverse Connectivity in Asian Developing CountriesThis research aims to review planning practices of border towns in Asian developing countries, reveal desirable development of the border towns with a variety of connectivity and propose methodologies to realize the desirable development. Findings from this research include, (1)correction of valuable primary data about both border town planning practices and cross-border mobilities, (2)clarifying factors affecting permanent residence in border towns, (3)evidence of place attachment formation and protection/creation of identities of border towns, (4)proposal of border town development strategies reflecting local contexts, (5)proposal of PASS approach for pandemic policymaking (closely related to cross-border mobilities), and (6) proposal of evidence-based packaged policies of pandemic control and the maintenance of tourism economic development.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Hiroshima University, 01 Apr. 2018 - 31 Mar. 2021Advanced use of trade statistics based on data fusionThis study aims to develop a method for create true trade volume from trade statistics based on data fusion approach. As the results, the study built an identification system of factors affecting the discrepancies with trade statistics. In addition, Non-negative Matrix Factorization method was applied into the discrepancies with trade statistics as a newly data fusion approach. Finally, the effectiveness of trade regulation to mercury and mercury added products in the Minamata Convention was evaluated from the perspective of the trade discrepancy.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory), Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Research (Exploratory), Hiroshima University, 30 Jun. 2017 - 31 Mar. 2020Transport and land use model for next generation mobility and its uncertainty analysisWe conducted a series of analyses to confirm the impacts of new mobility services (autonomous vehicles, and sharing services) and their uncertainties. The results imply that (1) the introduction of autonomous vehicle would affects the distribution of facilities and residential location, and (2) the diffusion of autonomous vehicles and its impacts would depend on the design of the vehicles and marketing strategies, indicating that high uncertainties would exist in the prediction results.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Kobe University, Apr. 2017 - Mar. 2020, Principal investigatorStandard spatial econometric models assume that data is "clean" in that spatial data is complete and accurate in terms of attributes and locations. However, of course, real spatial data is "dirty." We attempted to develop spatial econometric models which are applicable to dirty spatial data. More specifically, we proposed two new models: (1) A spatial sample selection model, (2) A spatial unconditional quantile regression model, and the parameter estimation methods for these models.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Hiroshima University, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2019Interdisciplinary research on policies promoting young people's migration to and permanent residence in local citiesThis study aims to provide scientific insights into revitalization policies for local cities of Japan, in which young people are willing to work and reside, from an interdisciplinary perspective. We have derived various significant findings/insights by integrating knowledge of the life-oriented approach (proposed/advocated by the principal researcher), local culture and public policy studies for decisions on effective policies promoting young people's migration to and permanent residence in local cities of Japan, in terms of clarifying the mechanisms of migration to and permanent residence in local cities, examining how to enhance the attractiveness of local cities, and creating employment opportunities that are also beneficial to the solutions of regional issues based on effective use of regional resources.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), University of Tsukuba, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2018Spatial analysis and downscaling of inter-regional flow data with a consideration for spatial auto-correlationThis study focuses on the analysis and spatial downscaling of inter-regional Origin -Destination (OD) Flow Data represented by regional traffic volume and trade volume data with a consideration for spatial autocorrelation which is one of the characteristics of geographical spatial data. The study analyses various OD flow data, such as industrial location and inter-municipality migration data and proposes a spatial clustering technique for OD flow. The study also proposes a statistical methodology and technique to predict OD flows in spatial downsclaing.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Hiroshima University, 01 Apr. 2014 - 31 Mar. 2017Mitigation Policies for Old Newtown Problem in Developing Countries in AsiaThis study proposes a new planning concept of "Self-containment" for sustainable neighborhood focusing on various newtowns with different development stages in developed and developing cities in Asia. Self-containment is an indicator of the extent to which residents can complete their daily activities inside the newtowns. This study developed an equilibrium model describing the interaction between travel behavior and physical and social conditions (i.e. social capital and social network) to measure the index. Based on the proposed concept, the study proposed neighborhood planning policies to mitigate the old newtown problem which will appear in developing world in the future. Finally, the study examines an approach to analysis the forward/backward propagation of neighborhood transportation policies between developed and developing cities.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Apr. 2014 - Mar. 2017, Principal investigatorWe developed new imputation method for spatially dependent missing data. The method attempts to apply spatial information to the prior distribution of missing values. We found that [1] By using spatial information for prior distribution, the imputation accuracy of some spatially auto-correlated explanatory variables can be improved (e.g., rent price, accessibility index). [2] Prior spatial information on missing data may not be effective for variables with a high {nugget/sill} ratio; in other words, the measurement error and/or micro-scale variation is dominant in total variation (e.g., FAR(Ratio) and age).Competitive research funding