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KONDO Keisuke
Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration / Global Economy Unit
Associate Professor

Researcher basic information

■ Research Keyword
  • Spatial Economics
  • Urban and Regional Economics
  • Agglomeration Economies
  • Urban Wage Premium
  • Regional Revitalization
  • Commuting
  • Migration
  • Evidence-based Policy Making
  • Social Implementation
■ Research Areas
  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic policy / Spatial Economics
  • Humanities & social sciences / Economic policy / Urban and Regional Economics
■ Committee History
  • Apr. 2024 - Present, Applied Regional Science Conference, Managing Committee Member
  • 2023, Applied Regional Science Conference, Program Committee of the 37th Annual Meeting
  • 2022, Applied Regional Science Conference, Audit committee member
  • 2021, Applied Regional Science Conference, Audit committee member

Research activity information

■ Award
  • Mar. 2025 一般社団法人社会基盤情報流通推進協議会, 銅賞（一般部門）、アーバンデータチャレンジ2024, 地方移住支援アプリ「移住シミュレーション」
    近藤恵介
    https://keisuke-kondo.shinyapps.io/migration-simulator-jp/
    Publisher
    共同研究・競争的資金等の業績IDIRI

  • Mar. 2024 Association for Promotion of infranstructure Geospatial Information Distribution, Bronze Award (General Category) (2023 Urban Data Challenge with 2023 Infrastructure Data Challenge), Visualization System of Human Mobility Based Regional Attractiveness
    Keisuke Kondo
    https://keisuke-kondo.shinyapps.io/regional-attractiveness-japan/
    Others
    共同研究・競争的資金等の業績IDIRI

  • Feb. 2015 Western Regional Science Association, Springer Prize, Disentangling the channels of agglomeration impacts on individual wages: The case of Mexican banking sector
    Keisuke Kondo
    International society
    IRI

  • May 2014 Kanematsu Foundation for the Research of Foreign Trade, Kanematsu Fellowship (Nishijima Prize), Spatial dependence in regional business cycles: Evidence from Mexican states
    Keisuke Kondo
    Publisher
    IRI

  • Jun. 2013 Kobe University Rokkodai Foundation, Ryoso Award
    Keisuke Kondo
    Publisher
    IRI

■ Paper
  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study proposes a novel concept of a regional attractiveness index based on human mobility flows. Assuming that individuals’ mobility choice is based on utility maximization, this study aims to recover the attractiveness of trip destinations by estimating the gravity equation for interregional trip flows. Using mobility data from a person trip survey and mobile phone data in Japan, this study investigates whether different trip purposes (e.g., commuting to office and school, recreational trips, business trips, and returning home) and seasonal and tourism factors (e.g., holidays, events, and amusement facilities) can reveal spatial and temporal variations in the attractiveness of trip destinations. This study found that the proposed approach using interregional trip flows can effectively capture the extent to which trip destinations attract people. As real-time human mobility data become increasingly available, the new index of regional attractiveness is expected to become a key performance indicator for daily monitoring of urban and regional economies.
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Nov. 2025, Scientific Reports, 15(45485) (45485), 1 - 18, English
    [Refereed]
    Scientific journal
    Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study investigates how regional business cycles are spatially dependent in Mexico by developing a Markov switching model with a spatial autoregressive process. The Markov switching model with two regimes distinguishes business cycles between expansion and recession phases (i.e., high- and low-growth rate regimes). The objective of this study is twofold. First, this study aims to identify which states transitioned from expansion to recession during the Great Recession in 2008–2009. Second, it numerically examines the extent to which states that experienced this transition caused a deterioration in neighboring states’ economies. Employing Bayesian inference for the Markov switching model with quarterly data of state economic activity during the period 2003:Q1–2015:Q4, this study finds that Mexican states with higher manufacturing sector shares tended to be in recession during the Great Recession. Although some states experienced economic downturns in this period, they were not in a recessionary regime. This study also finds that business cycles across states were spatially dependent during the Great Recession. The numerical simulations of spatial spillover effects suggest that states that regime-switched from expansion to recession during the Great Recession caused a reduction in the quarterly growth rate of their neighboring economies by an average of 0.39 percentage points.
    Springer Science and Business Media {LLC}, Dec. 2022, Journal of Spatial Econometrics, 3(1) (1), English
    [Refereed]
    Scientific journal

  • Keisuke Kondo
    A spatial susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered (SEIR) model is developed to analyze the effects of restricting interregional mobility on the spatial spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection in Japan. National and local governments have requested that residents refrain from traveling between prefectures during the state of emergency. However, the extent to which restricting interregional mobility prevents infection expansion is unclear. The spatial SEIR model describes the spatial spread pattern of COVID-19 infection when people commute or travel to a prefecture in the daytime and return to their residential prefecture at night. It is assumed that people are exposed to an infection risk during their daytime activities. The spatial spread of COVID-19 infection is simulated by integrating interregional mobility data. According to the simulation results, interregional mobility restrictions can prevent the geographical expansion of the infection. On the other hand, in urban prefectures with many infectious individuals, residents are exposed to higher infection risk when their interregional mobility is restricted. The simulation results also show that interregional mobility restrictions play a limited role in reducing the total number of infected individuals in Japan, suggesting that other non-pharmaceutical interventions should be implemented to reduce the epidemic size.
    Springer Science and Business Media {LLC}, Dec. 2021, Scientific Reports, 11(18951) (18951), 1 - 15, English
    [Refereed]
    Scientific journal

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Oxford University Press ({OUP}), May 2019, Journal of Economic Geography, 19(3) (3), 677 - 704, English
    [Refereed]
    Scientific journal

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd, May 2018, World Economy, 41(5) (5), 1437 - 1456, English
    [Refereed]
    Scientific journal

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Spatial analysis is attracting more attention from Stata users because of the increasing availability of regional data. In this article, I present an implementation of hot and cold spot analysis using Stata. I introduce the new command getisord, which calculates the Getis–Ord G*i (d) statistic. To implement this command, one only needs the latitude and longitude of regions as the additional required information. In combination with shape files, the results obtained from the getisord command can be visually displayed in Stata. In this article, I also offer an interesting illustration to explain how the getisord command works.
    Sep. 2016, Stata Journal, 16(3) (3), 613 - 631, English
    [Refereed]
    Scientific journal

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Elsevier, Nov. 2015, Japan and the World Economy, 36, 113 - 122, English
    [Refereed]
    Scientific journal

  • Keisuke Kondo, Toshihiro Okubo
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd, Mar. 2015, Papers in Regional Science, 94(1) (1), 67 - 87, English
    [Refereed]
    Scientific journal

  • Keisuke Kondo
    先行研究において日本の失業率の地域間格差は徐々に減少していることが指摘されている．そこで，本論文では，人口移動が地域労働市場間の調整としてどのように機能しているのかを1980年から2010年までの市区町村データを用いて実証的に明らかにする．本研究の特徴は，空間計量経済モデルを用いることで，人口移動の地域間の相互従属性を同時に考慮している点である．分析結果より，高失業率が人口移動のプッシュ要因として機能していたこと，また人口流出率と人口流入率がそれぞれ正の有意な空間従属性を示すことを明らかにしている．さらに，相対失業率の変化率と人口流出率の間には負の相関関係があることも明らかにしている．以上の分析結果から，失業率の高かった地域から失業者が流出することで翌期には失業率が低下し，一方で，失業率の低かった地域では失業者の流出が十分ではなく翌期には失業率が上昇していたことが失業率の地域間格差縮小の背景として示唆される．
    Japan Statistical Society, 2015, 日本統計学会誌, 45(1) (1), 69 - 98, Japanese
    [Refereed][Invited]
    Scientific journal

■ MISC
  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study examines the relationship between total fertility rates and urban agglomeration in Asia through a comparative descriptive analysis of subnational data from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. Against the backdrop of a nationwide decline in fertility, the study asks whether low fertility is systematically associated with population density within Asian countries and region, rather than constituting a national-level demographic outcome solely. The empirical analysis is based on explanatory spatial data analysis, combining maps of population density and total fertility rates. The empirical analysis finds that, within each country examined, fertility tends to be lower in denser and more urbanized areas, particularly in major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Ho Chi Minh City, Jakarta, and Bangkok. Although the strength and dispersion of the relationship vary across national contexts, a broadly similar negative density–fertility gradient is observed throughout Asia. These findings suggest that low fertility in Asia should be understood not only as a demographic transition, but also as a spatial phenomenon closely associated with urban concentration.
    Mar. 2026, RIEB Discussion Paper Series, 2026-14, English

  • Keisuke Kondo, Okubo Toshihiro
    This study focuses on “Location Rationalization Plans,” which is one of the place-based policies initiated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan. In accordance with the “Amended Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction,” which took effect in August 2014, each local government is diligently engaged in formulating “Location Normalization Plans” to propel compact community development in preparation for a future society grappling with a declining population. As of March 31, 2024, 568 local governments had successfully formulated and published their plans. However, the formulation of plans remains in progress in some local governments. Reasons for the inability of some municipalities to formulate their plans early, while others are still in the process of doing so, have not yet been fully clarified. This study aims to elucidate which local governments have successfully completed their urban planning in a timely manner. Creating an original municipal dataset, this study finds that learning and spillovers are factors that contribute to the policy-making process. Specifically, learning exerts a substantial influence on the decision-making process regarding initiation and the swift development of analogous ongoing policies.
    Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Aug. 2025, RIETI Discussion Paper, 25-E-078, English

  • Keisuke Kondo, Toshihiro Okubo
    This study focuses on the Japanese leisure industry, including golf, bowling, and amusement and theme parks, to empirically evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business performance. Given the necessity for interpersonal interaction in the leisure industry, the restrictions on outings due to the COVID-19 outbreaks had a considerable impact on business operations. The novelty of this study lies in its integration of establishment-level microdata with geocoded location information and human mobility data collected as big data, to assess the impact of surrounding locations on business performance before and during the COVID-19 outbreak. Using establishment-level monthly panel data from January 2019 to December 2021, this study finds the direct negative effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on business performance. Interestingly, the COVID-19 pandemic led to structural changes in the relationship between business performance and weekday outings, suggesting behavioral changes in leisure activities.
    Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Aug. 2025, RIETI Discussion Paper, 25-E-074, English

  • Shinichiro Iwata, Keisuke Kondo
    he spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) presented the government with the difficult challenge of balancing measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 infections with socioeconomic activity. In the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, when vaccines and treatments were not yet available, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restrictions on movement and crowd control, were imperative to halt the spread of the COVID-19 infections. However, NPIs aimed at curtailing the spread of the virus by reducing interpersonal contact substantially influenced socioeconomic activity. Using monthly panel data from Japanese retail establishments from January 2019 to December 2021, this study quantitatively assesses the impact of NPIs on retail performance by analyzing human flow around establishments. The analysis revealed a robust correlation between changes in the human flow in the surrounding area and changes in retail sales including before the COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, this study found that NPIs temporarily increased this relationship, suggesting that lower human mobility due to NPIs decreases retail sales. Interestingly, the study also found that the effectiveness of NPIs decreased with each intervention. The first state of emergency declaration in 2020 had the largest impact through human mobility.
    Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Aug. 2025, RIETI Discussion Paper, 25-E-073, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study utilizes micro-geographic data to examine wage premiums across different residential and employment agglomerations. In the existing literature on economies of density, the distinction between residents and workers is often addressed without a clear differentiation between the two. This oversight hinders the formulation of practical policy recommendations for compact urban planning and industrial location strategies. Amid Japan’s ongoing population decline, certain regions retain the capacity to attract industrial activity despite their waning appeal as residential areas. However, when policy discussions focus exclusively on residential agglomeration, regions with substantial potential to revitalize local industrial clusters may be overlooked. To bridge this gap, the study integrates manufacturing establishment data with regional mesh data on both residents and workers. This study finds that employment concentration, rather than residential concentration within compact geographic areas accounts for wage premiums, thereby highlighting the critical role of spatial locality of employment in shaping industrial location strategies.
    Jul. 2025, RIETI Discussion Paper, 25-E-069, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study proposes a novel policy evaluation framework for the concept of a relationship population from the perspective of network analysis. In Japan, which is facing a rapid decline in population, the national and local governments have been implementing a set of regional revitalization policies for “creation and expansion of relationship populations” since the second phase of the "Comprehensive Strategy for the Creation of Communities, People, and Jobs " in 2019. This study shows that the relationship population can be conceptualized as a network of connections among individuals and regions. It can be structured as the number of individuals connected to a region, termed the “relationship population,” and the number of regions to which an individual is connected, referred to as the “relationship region.” This study evaluates the potential of individuals to attain a high level of subjective well-being by becoming a relationship population in multiple regions. The findings, derived from the creation and analysis of relationship region variables constructed from individuals’ residential history, indicate that residential experience in various regions is more likely to lead to relatively high levels of subjective well-being in the lives of the subjects.
    Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Apr. 2025, RIETI Discussion Papers (Japanese), 25-J-008, Japanese

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This paper introduces the new Stata command moransi, which allows users to easily compute global and local Moran's I statistics in Stata. The fundamental feature of the moransi command is that the spatial weight matrix is constructed internally within a sequence of the program code. The additional information required in the dataset to implement this command are the latitude and longitude of regions. This paper presents two applied examples of the moransi command to deepen the understanding of global and local spatial autocorrelation.
    Lead, Mar. 2025, RIEB Discussion Paper Series, 2025-03, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    As Japan is facing a declining population, there are fears that rural population centers may disappear in the future due to decreases in the resident populations through outmigration. On the other hand, there are still many regions in rural areas that are attractive to many people from outside the region or overseas, and it is necessary to re-evaluate regional values and sustainability from a different perspective. This study attempts to develop a novel indicator to quantify regional attractiveness as a destination in a way that is not dependent on the size of the local resident population. This index provides insight in developing populations related to regional revitalization that could be seen as more substantial than tourism and less so than true immigration. The regional attractiveness index proposed by this study quantifies the attractiveness of trip destinations as a force that draws people to the destination from further away, using big human flow data. The data was obtained from "Mobile Spatial Statistics" (NTT Docomo) through the RESAS API, from September 2015 to August 2016. In addition, a regional attractiveness index visualization system was developed as a web application to facilitate the public implementation of academic research. The possibility of using this system for agile policy formation and evaluation in regional revitalization will also be discussed.
    Lead, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Apr. 2024, RIETI Policy Discussion Papers (Japanese), 24-P-005, Japanese

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study bridges the gap between the urban wage premium and human capital externalities. Merging the worker-level microdata with the geographical data in Mexico and taking the two-step approach of the Mincer wage equation, this study finds that the spatial sorting and human capital externalities entirely explain the urban wage premium in Mexico. This study finds heterogeneous effects of human capital externalities on wages between high- and low-skilled workers. Low-skilled workers benefit from human capital externalities, whereas high-skilled workers do not. Instead, high-skilled workers get more than twice as high private return to education anywhere they work as low-skilled workers.
    Lead, Mar. 2024, RIEB Discussion Paper Series, 2024-09, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study empirically tests the hypothesis that neighboring exporters increase the probability of export market entry (extensive margin) and export values (intensive margin). As mentioned in the international trade literature, export initiation requires additional fixed entry costs, and therefore, a high productivity is required to earn a positive profit. If neighboring establishments are already exporting, the necessary information for initiating exports is available in those areas, thus lowering entry costs. Prior studies provide mixed evidence on local export spillovers and need further validation. Using panel data on Japanese manufacturing establishments, this study provides evidence regarding intra-industry local export spillover effects on the extensive and intensive margins of exports; however, evidence concerning inter-industry local export spillovers is limited.
    Lead, Dec. 2023, RIETI Discussion Paper, 23-E-090, English

  • Yang Liu, Keisuke Kondo
    Several studies have examined immigrants’ labor force participation and economic outcomes and highlighted immigrants’ geographic behaviors in host countries; however, Japanese cases remain unexplored. This study provides novel evidence of the immigrant–native differentials in commuting and residential preferences in Japan. This study uses individual data from the 2010 Population Census. Controlling for individual characteristics, employment status, regions, industries, and occupations, we observe that the gender gap in commuting distance is much smaller for immigrants than for the Japanese natives. Among married couples, male immigrants commute significantly shorter distances than native males. No significant differences exist in commuting distance between female immigrants and natives. While analyzing residential preferences, we find that immigrants who have lived in Japan for 5 years or more tend to reside in areas with a higher population density than those who have lived for less than 5 years. Immigrant–native differentials in residential preferences differ according to home countries. The result contributes to the literature on immigrant economic integration. Further, it provides empirical evidence for policies that address the labor shortage problem in Japan.
    Aug. 2023, RIETI Discussion Paper, 23-E-057, Japanese

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Real Estate Companies Association of Japan, Mar. 2023, FORE (Future of Real Estate), (127) (127), 10 - 11, Japanese, Domestic magazine
    [Invited]
    Introduction commerce magazine

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study proposes a novel concept of regional attractiveness index based on human mobility flows. Assuming that individuals' mobility choice is based on utility maximization, this study aims to recover the attractiveness of trip destinations by estimating the gravity equation for interregional trip flows. Using data from a Person Trip Survey in the Kansai region of Japan, this study investigates whether different trip purposes (e.g., commuting to office and school, recreational trips, business trips, and returning home) can reveal variations in the attractiveness of trip destinations in a geographical space. This study found that the proposed approach using interregional trip flows can effectively capture the extent to which trip destinations attract people from a region-wide perspective. As real-time human mobility data becomes increasingly available in the age of Big Data, the new index of regional attractiveness is expected to become a key performance indicator for daily monitoring of urban and regional economies.
    Lead, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Mar. 2023, RIEB Discussion Paper Series, DP2023-07, Japanese

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This paper explains a method of constructing municipality-level panel data for Japan for the period of 1980–2020. Municipal mergers conducted in the mid-2000s, which are collectively known as “the Great Mergers in the Heisei era,” resulted in a reduction of almost half of the number of Japanese municipalities. The significant changes in administrative borders resulting from these municipal merges cause difficulties in constructing municipality-level panel data. To address this problem, this paper proposes a method of aggregating municipalities as a collective geographical unit that remains identical over decades.
    Lead, Feb. 2023, RIETI Technical Paper, 23-T-001, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study proposes a simple framework for the ex ante evaluation of migration subsidy. Recently, the Japanese government initiated a migration subsidy program to promote urban-to-rural migration for regional revitalization under the economy with a monopolar concentration in Tokyo. The ex ante evaluation framework proposed in this study formulates the payback period of interregional migration as investment behavior. In the model, households compare the sum of the expected benefits available each year after migration with the lump-sum costs of migration, which are estimated with structural estimation using the interregional migration flow data. The migration subsidy leads to an incentive for interregional migration by reducing the payback period. This study finds that households incur different migration costs at each stage of life, implying that a uniformly determined migration subsidy may have different policy effects. Counterfactual simulations provide scientific insight into the potential impact of the migration subsidy program, helping policymakers determine the optimal amount under the budget constraint.
    Lead, Dec. 2022, RIETI Policy Discussion Paper, 22-P-031, English

  • Nobuaki Hamaguchi, Keisuke Kondo
    This study examines the extent to which spatial gaps in real minimum wages affect the location choice in job search of new high school graduates in Japan. We exploit the exogenous shock related to the 2007 amendment of the Minimum Wage Act which expanded variations in real minimum wage between urban and rural prefectures. We propose Bartik-like instruments for differential exposure to these shocks to perform a causal inference of the impact of spatial gaps in real minimum wages on the location choice in job search of unskilled young workers. Our estimation results show that the real minimum wage gaps partially motivate job search outside resident prefectures. Our counterfactual evaluation for the uniform minimum wage across prefectures shows that approximately 10-25% of new high school graduates in rural prefectures seek jobs outside their resident prefectures even under the uniform minimum wage setting. This result suggests that the simple correlation overestimates the impact of minimum wage on outmigration because other factors than wages such as urban amenity may explain spatial behavior in job search.
    Mar. 2022, RIETI Discussion Paper, 22-E-022, English

  • Shinichiro Iwata, Keisuke Kondo
    The compact city policy of Toyama City, Japan, aims to encourage density in both the city center and suburban hubs linked by public transport systems. The policy framework relates to the place-based policy, which targets geographic underperforming zones. Several town developments projected by this policy, including the development of housing, public and commercial facilities, and public transport systems, are conducted to increase the attractiveness of the target zones. Retail revitalization is then expected as a spillover effect through increasing market size. Using a difference-in-difference matching estimation with establishment-level panel data, this paper evaluates the policy impact on incumbent retailers located in the target zones, corresponding to the treatment group. The empirical results demonstrate that while the policy effects are not observed in the short run, the policy has a positive impact on both inputs and outputs for incumbent retailers in the long run. The existing policy framework, however, does not generate positive spillover effects on incumbent retailer productivity.
    Oct. 2021, RIETI Discussion Paper, 21-E-085, English

  • Keisuke Kondo, Toshihiro Okubo
    This study evaluates urban policy on revitalization in city centers focusing on the Japanese service sector. Many Japanese cities have experienced a decline in population and economic activity in city centers. The 2006 Amended Act on Vitalization in City Centers shows a renewed effort toward city center revitalization. Local governments that applied for the related subsidies have implemented policies in targeted areas (generally, the area surrounding the main train station) to attract residents and employment from the suburbs and to revitalize economic activity. Using matching difference-in-differences estimations, this study finds that revitalization policies have improved the economic performance of service establishments only in city centers of regional core cities, but finds no evidence of similar effects in regional non-core cities.
    May 2020, RIETI Discussion Paper, 20-E-050

  • Keisuke Kondo, Toshihiro Okubo
    This study analyzes how local market size affects the probabilities of firm exit by focusing on single-establishment firms in the service sector. The novelty of this study is that it identifies geographic ranges of local markets using the matched data of geocoded firm location and micro-geographic data with detailed firm exit information of all Japanese firms. The results reveal that the probability of firm exit increases as local market size increases within a narrow range (3 km radius) in the service sector. We also find that small firms tend to leave the market. Our results suggest that firm selection is stronger in larger markets, where larger firms are more likely to survive.
    May 2020, RIETI Discussion Paper, 20-E-053, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study evaluates the disutility of long-distance commuting by structurally estimating a random utility model of commuting choice. Using estimated structural parameters for commuting preferences and considering the factors that produce heterogeneity across workers, the study quantifies the extent to which workers incur disutility from commuting under a counterfactual scenario in which they commute the same distance before and after marriage. Using inter-municipal commuting flow data in Japan, the counterfactual simulations uncover a significant gender gap in the disutility of commuting, particularly because having children after marriage greatly increases the disutility of commuting for female but not for male workers. Residential relocation plays a role in mitigating the disutility of commuting for female workers, implying that the additional disutility that arises after marriage can be offset through endogenous residential location choice.
    Apr. 2020, RIETI Discussion Paper, 20-E-031, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study provides novel insights on the hypothesis of tougher demand competition in larger cities, focusing on the accommodation sector. In recent years, Japan has experienced a sudden increase in foreign tourists, which has increased the room occupancy rates of hotels, especially in large cities, such as Tokyo and Osaka. Large cities also attract domestic visitors from across the country, meaning that the inbound tourism boom results in a situation where hotel demand of Japanese visitors is in direct competition with that of foreign visitors. This study finds that the increase in hotel demand of foreign visitors has increased the difficultly for Japanese visitors to find vacant rooms (vice versa) since the beginning of inbound tourism boom around 2013, especially in both business and city hotels in large cities, suggesting that visitors to larger cities face higher costs of searching for vacant rooms.
    Dec. 2019, RIETI Discussion Paper, 19-E-106, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This paper explains how to construct the municipality-level panel data in Japan in the period of 1980–2020. Municipal mergers conducted around 2005, which is known as “Great Mergers in the Heisei era,” result in reduction of almost half of the number of Japanese municipalities. The big change in shapes of municipalities by these municipal merges causes difficulties in constructing municipality-level panel data. To address this problem, this paper proposes a method of aggregating municipal districts in the past by identical geographical unit throughout the period. The converter file made in this paper is distributed to the public.
    Mar. 2019, RIETI Technical Paper, 19-T-001, Japanese

  • This study investigates employment risk caused by new technology, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, using the probability of computerization by Frey and Osborne (2017) and Japanese employment data. The new perspective of this study is the consideration of regional heterogeneity in labor markets due to the uneven geographical distribution of occupations, which is especially observed between male and female workers. This study finds that female workers are exposed to higher risks of computerization than male workers, since they tend to be engaged in occupations with a high probability of computerization. This tendency is more pronounced in larger cities. Our results suggest that supporting additional human capital investment alone is not enough as a risk alleviation strategy against new technology, and policymakers need to address structural labor market issues, such as gender biases for career progression and participation in decision-making positions, in the AI era to mitigate unequal risk of computerization between workers.
    Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, May 2018, RIETI Discussion Paper, 18-E-032, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    This study empirically investigates how market size affects markups in the Japanese manufacturing sector. Recently developed models on monopolistic competition with endogenous price-cost markups show that markups in larger markets are lower because competition is stronger. This study proposes a new empirical approach to identify the effective geographical ranges of market competition that affect markups in the tradable goods sector. The approach in this study is novel because market size is measured as the market potential within the threshold distance from 100 km to 1,000 km. This study finds both the size of the market in closer proximity to the production location and the size of the distant market affect markups, suggesting that manufacturing establishments face stronger competition in geographically wider markets.
    Lead, Mar. 2018, RIETI Discussion Paper, 18-E-017, English

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Recent studies on the empirics of agglomeration economies have assumed a two-step channel of the urban wage premium in which agglomeration increases total factor productivity (TFP) and results in higher wages. Therefore, the present study empirically examines the validity of this two-step channel via TFP and investigates other channels of the urban wage premium by using matched employer-employee data in the Japanese manufacturing sector. The findings show that the standard wage regression approach used in the literature captures not only the TFP channel of the urban wage premium but also other effects (e.g., firm size effects on wage). Furthermore, when this TFP channel is quantified, the city size elasticity of wage becomes smaller than those in the existing literature. The implication of this study is that, by exploiting the features of the Japanese employment system, it is possible to obtain interesting results concerning the urban wage premium, especially in regard to basic pay and bonuses.
    Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Mar. 2017, RIETI Discussion Paper, 17-E-047, English

■ Books And Other Publications
  • 近藤恵介
    Contributor, ＜新たな産業への期待＞地方消滅を乗り越える地域未来戦略：「魅力度」軸に産業振興とまちづくりの調和を実現, 株式会社日本金融通信社, Jan. 2026, 28–31, Japanese

  • 近藤恵介
    Contributor, ＜政策と学術研究の架け橋を目指して vol.2＞誰もが参加できるEBPMの実現に貢献する, 株式会社日本評論社, Nov. 2025, 46–50, Japanese

  • Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism
    Contributor, インタビュー 我が国の労働市場の流動性と賃上げ・イノベーションの関係, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Jun. 2024, 14-15, Japanese

  • Economics of the COVID-19 Crisis: Proposals and Analyses
    Keiichiro Kobayasi, Masayuki Morikawa
    Contributor, Chapter 19 Combating Infectious Diseases and Urban Policy, Nikkei Business Publications, Jul. 2020, 315-329, Japanese, ISBN: 9784532358617
    Scholarly book

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Contributor, Location determines wage level, NIPPON HYORON SHA, May 2018, Japanese
    General book

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Contributor, Kiei No Keizai Ronten "Decreasing international trade costs and regional economic decline", Nikkei Business Publications, Oct. 2016, Japanese

■ Lectures, oral presentations, etc.
  • Learning and spillovers in place-based policy making
    Keisuke Kondo
    65th Annual Meeting of Western Regional Science Association, Feb. 2026, English, Western Regional Science Association, Eldorado Hotel & Spa, Santa Fe, New Mexico, United States, This study focuses on “Location Rationalization Plans,” which is one of the place-based policies initiated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan. In accordance with the “Amended Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction,” which took effect in August 2014, each local government is diligently engaged in formulating “Location Normalization Plans” to propel compact community development in preparation for a future society grappling with a declining population. As of March 31, 2024, 568 local governments had successfully formulated and published their plans. However, the formulation of plans remains in progress in some local governments. Reasons for the inability of some municipalities to formulate their plans early, while others are still in the process of doing so, have not yet been fully clarified. This study aims to elucidate which local governments have successfully completed their urban planning in a timely manner. Creating an original municipal dataset, this study finds that learning and spillovers are factors that contribute to the policy-making process. Specifically, learning exerts a substantial influence on the decision-making process regarding initiation and the swift development of analogous ongoing policies.
    Oral presentation

  • Assessing the Impact of Human Mobility on Retail Performance during the COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    CCSS Workshop on Computational Social Science: Simulation + Data Science + Networks, Dec. 2025, English, Center for Computational Social Science of Kobe University, UTS Business School, Sydney, Australia, Australia, The spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) presented the government with the difficult challenge of balancing measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 infections with socioeconomic activity. In the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, when vaccines and treatments were not yet available, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restrictions on movement and crowd control, were imperative to halt the spread of the COVID-19 infections. However, NPIs aimed at curtailing the spread of the virus by reducing interpersonal contact substantially influenced socioeconomic activity. Using monthly panel data from Japanese retail establishments from January 2019 to December 2021, this study quantitatively assesses the impact of NPIs on retail performance by analyzing human flow around establishments. The analysis revealed a robust correlation between changes in the human flow in the surrounding area and changes in retail sales including before the COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, this study found that NPIs temporarily increased this relationship, suggesting that lower human mobility due to NPIs decreases retail sales. Interestingly, the study also found that the effectiveness of NPIs decreased with each intervention. The first state of emergency declaration in 2020 had the largest impact through human mobility.
    Oral presentation

  • Assessing the Impact of Human Mobility on Retail Performance during the COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    The 39th Annual Meeting of the Applied Regional Science Conference, Nov. 2025, Japanese, Applied Regional Science Conference, University of Toyama, Japan, The spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) presented the government with the difficult challenge of balancing measures to combat the spread of the COVID-19 infections with socioeconomic activity. In the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, when vaccines and treatments were not yet available, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restrictions on movement and crowd control, were imperative to halt the spread of the COVID-19 infections. However, NPIs aimed at curtailing the spread of the virus by reducing interpersonal contact substantially influenced socioeconomic activity. Using monthly panel data from Japanese retail establishments from January 2019 to December 2021, this study quantitatively assesses the impact of NPIs on retail performance by analyzing human flow around establishments. The analysis revealed a robust correlation between changes in the human flow in the surrounding area and changes in retail sales including before and during the COVID-19 outbreaks. Furthermore, this study found that NPIs temporarily increased this magnitude, suggesting that NPIs restricted unnecessary outings. A notable finding of the study was the observation that the effectiveness of NPIs diminished with each intervention. The initial state of emergency declaration in 2020 had the most significant impact on outings. This study provides evidence that NPIs had geographically heterogeneous impacts on retail sales through dynamic changes in human mobility.
    Oral presentation

  • Learning and Spillovers in Place-Based Policy Making
    Keisuke Kondo
    2025 Autumn Meeting of Japanese Economic Association, Sep. 2025, Japanese, Japanese Economic Association, Hirosaki University, Japan, This study focuses on “Location Rationalization Plans,” which is one of the place-based policies initiated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan. In accordance with the “Amended Act on Special Measures concerning Urban Reconstruction,” which took effect in August 2014, each local government is diligently engaged in formulating “Location Normalization Plans” to propel compact community development in preparation for a future society grappling with a declining population. As of March 31, 2024, 568 local governments had successfully formulated and published their plans. However, the formulation of plans remains in progress in some local governments. Reasons for the inability of some municipalities to formulate their plans early, while others are still in the process of doing so, have not yet been fully clarified. This study aims to elucidate which local governments have successfully completed their urban planning in a timely manner. Creating an original municipal dataset, this study finds that learning and spillovers are factors that contribute to the policy-making process. Specifically, learning exerts a substantial influence on the decision-making process regarding initiation and the swift development of analogous ongoing policies.
    Oral presentation

  • App for Supporting Regional Migration: Migration Simulation
    Keisuke Kondo
    アーバンデータチャレンジ2024ファイナル！地域の課題解決に貢献する作品を一挙大公開 〜最終オンライン公開審査会〜, Mar. 2025, Association for Promotion of infranstructure Geospatial Information Distribution, The University of Tokyo, Japan

  • Local Export Spillovers Within and Between Industries in Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    38th Annual Meeting of Applied Regional Science Conference, Nov. 2024, Japanese, Applied Regional Science Conference, Kyushu Sangyo University, Japan, This study empirically tests the hypothesis that neighboring exporters increase the probability of export market entry (extensive margin) and export values (intensive margin). As mentioned in the international trade literature, export initiation requires additional fixed entry costs, and therefore, a high productivity is required to earn a positive profit. If neighboring establishments are already exporting, the necessary information for initiating exports is available in those areas, thus lowering entry costs. Prior studies provide mixed evidence on local export spillovers and need further validation. Using panel data on Japanese manufacturing establishments, this study provides evidence regarding intra-industry local export spillover effects on the extensive and intensive margins of exports; however, evidence concerning inter-industry local export spillovers is limited.
    Oral presentation

  • Ex ante evaluation of migration subsidy: Evidence from Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    Economic and Social Dynamics in a Changing World: Insights from spatial economics, Oct. 2024, English, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI), Japanese Economic Association (JEA), Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO), Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
    [Invited]
    Oral presentation

  • Local Export Spillovers Within and Between Industries in Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    The 13th Spring Meeting of The Japan Society of International Economics, Jun. 2024, English, The Japan Society of International Economics, Tohoku Gakuin University, Japan, This study empirically tests the hypothesis that neighboring exporters increase the probability of export market entry (extensive margin) and export values (intensive margin). As mentioned in the international trade literature, export initiation requires additional fixed entry costs, and therefore, a high productivity is required to earn a positive profit. If neighboring establishments are already exporting, the necessary information for initiating exports is available in those areas, thus lowering entry costs. Prior studies provide mixed evidence on local export spillovers and need further validation. Using panel data on Japanese manufacturing establishments, this study provides evidence regarding intra-industry local export spillover effects on the extensive and intensive margins of exports; however, evidence concerning inter-industry local export spillovers is limited.
    Oral presentation

  • Visualization System of Human Mobility Based Regional Attractiveness
    Keisuke Kondo
    2023 Urban Data Challenge with 2023 Infrastructure Data Challenge, Mar. 2024, Japanese, Association for Promotion of infranstructure Geospatial Information Distribution, The University of Tokyo, Komaba Research Campus, Japan

  • Measuring the attractiveness of trip destinations: A study of the Kansai region
    Keisuke Kondo
    37th Annual Meeting of Applied Regional Science Conference, Dec. 2023, English, Applied Regional Science Conference, Osaka University, Japan, This study proposes a novel concept of a regional attractiveness index based on human mobility flows. Assuming that individuals’ mobility choice is based on utility maximization, this study aims to recover the attractiveness of trip destinations by estimating the gravity equation for interregional trip flows. Using mobility data from a Person Trip Survey and mobile phone data in the Kansai region of Japan, this study investigates whether different trip purposes (e.g., commuting to office and school, recreational trips, business trips, and returning home) and seasonal and tourism factors (e.g., holidays, events, and amusement facilities) can reveal spatial and temporal variations in the attractiveness of trip destinations. This study found that the proposed approach using interregional trip flows can effectively capture the extent to which trip destinations attract people from a region-wide perspective. As real-time human mobility data become increasingly available, the new index of regional attractiveness is expected to become a key performance indicator for daily monitoring of urban and regional economies., Domestic conference
    Oral presentation

  • spgen: Creating spatially lagged variables in Stata
    Keisuke Kondo
    2023 Stata Conference, Jul. 2023, English, StataCorp LLC., Stanford, United States
    Oral presentation

  • Ex ante evaluation of migration subsidy: Evidence from Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    The Urban Economics Workshop, May 2023, Japanese, Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy, The University of Tokyo, The University of Tokyo, Japan, This study proposes a simple framework for the ex ante evaluation of migration subsidy. Recently, the Japanese government initiated a migration subsidy program to promote urban-to-rural migration for regional revitalization under the economy with a monopolar concentration in Tokyo. The ex ante evaluation framework proposed in this study formulates the payback period of interregional migration as investment behavior. In the model, households compare the sum of the expected benefits available each year after migration with the lump-sum costs of migration, which are estimated with structural estimation using the interregional migration flow data. The migration subsidy leads to an incentive for interregional migration by reducing the payback period. This study finds that households incur different migration costs at each stage of life, implying that a uniformly determined migration subsidy may have different policy effects. Counterfactual simulations provide scientific insight into the potential impact of the migration subsidy program, helping policymakers determine the optimal amount under the budget constraint.
    Oral presentation

  • Ex ante evaluation of migration subsidy: Evidence from Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    62nd Annual Meeting, Feb. 2023, English, Western Regional Science Association, Hilton Waikoloa Village in Big Island, HI, United States, This study proposes a simple framework for the ex ante evaluation of migration subsidy. Recently, the Japanese government initiated a migration subsidy program to promote urban-to-rural migration for regional revitalization under the economy with a monopolar concentration in Tokyo. The ex ante evaluation framework proposed in this study formulates the payback period of interregional migration as investment behavior. In the model, households compare the sum of the expected benefits available each year after migration with the lump-sum costs of migration, which are estimated with structural estimation using the interregional migration flow data. The migration subsidy leads to an incentive for interregional migration by reducing the payback period. This study finds that households incur different migration costs at each stage of life, implying that a uniformly determined migration subsidy may have different policy effects. Counterfactual simulations provide scientific insight into the potential impact of the migration subsidy program, helping policymakers determine the optimal amount under the budget constraint., International conference
    Oral presentation

  • Ex ante evaluation of migration subsidy: Evidence from Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    36th Annual Meeting, Dec. 2022, English, Applied Regional Science Conference, University of Yamanashi (Kofu Campus), Japan, Domestic conference
    Oral presentation

  • Spatial gaps in minimum wages and job search of young workers: Evidence from Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    37th Annual Meeting, Nov. 2021, Applied Regional Science Conference, オンライン, Japan, This study examines the extent to which spatial gaps in real minimum wages affect the location choice in job search of new high school graduates in Japan. We exploit the exogenous shock related to the 2007 amendment of the Minimum Wage Act which expanded variations in real minimum wage between urban and rural prefectures. We propose Bartik-like instruments for differential exposure to these shocks to perform a causal inference of the impact of spatial gaps in real minimum wages on the location choice in job search of unskilled young workers. Our estimation results show that the real minimum wage gaps partially motivate job search outside resident prefectures. Our counterfactual evaluation for the uniform minimum wage across prefectures shows that approximately 10-25% of new high school graduates in rural prefectures seek jobs outside their resident prefectures even under the uniform minimum wage setting. This result suggests that the simple correlation overestimates the impact of minimum wage on outmigration because other factors than wages such as urban amenity may explain spatial behavior in job search., Domestic conference
    Oral presentation

  • The costs of urban agglomeration: Evidence from inbound tourism boom in Japan
    Keisuke Kondo
    33rd Annual Meeting, Nov. 2019, Japanese, Applied Regional Science Conference, Saga University, Japan, This study provides novel insights on the hypothesis of tougher demand competition in larger cities, focusing on the accommodation sector. In recent years, Japan has experienced a sudden increase in foreign tourists, which has increased the room occupancy rates of hotels, especially in large cities, such as Tokyo and Osaka. Large cities also attract domestic visitors from across the country, meaning that the inbound tourism boom results in a situation where hotel demand of Japanese visitors is in direct competition with that of foreign visitors. This study finds that the increase in hotel demand of foreign visitors has increased the difficultly for Japanese visitors to find vacant rooms (vice versa) since the beginning of inbound tourism boom around 2013, especially in both business and city hotels in large cities, suggesting that visitors to larger cities face higher costs of searching for vacant rooms.
    Oral presentation

  • Human mobility in Japan: Commuting
    Keisuke Kondo
    32nd Annual Meeting, Dec. 2018, Japanese, Applied Regional Science Conference, Nanzan University, Japan, This study evaluates the disutility of long-distance commuting by structurally estimating a random utility model of commuting choice. Using estimated structural parameters for commuting preferences and considering the factors that produce heterogeneity across workers, the study quantifies the extent to which workers incur disutility from commuting under a counterfactual scenario in which they commute the same distance before and after marriage. Using inter-municipal commuting flow data in Japan, the counterfactual simulations uncover a significant gender gap in the disutility of commuting, particularly because having children after marriage greatly increases the disutility of commuting for female but not for male workers. Residential relocation plays a role in mitigating the disutility of commuting for female workers, implying that the additional disutility that arises after marriage can be offset through endogenous residential location choice. * The latest version of this paper is published as "A structural estimation of the disutility of commuting" (RIETI DP 20-E-031)., Domestic conference
    Oral presentation

  • A I・ロボット時代における地域経済と雇用
    近藤恵介
    2040年の AI社会到来を考える, Mar. 2018, Japanese, 横須賀の2040 年を考える会, 横須賀市, Japan
    [Invited]
    Keynote oral presentation

  • Spatial quantitative analysis by Stata: Program development using Mata
    Keisuke Kondo
    Japanese Stata Users Group Meeting, Sep. 2017, Japanese, Lightstone Corp, Kyoto, Japan, A programming language called Mata is available in Stata. In this presentation, I will show that flexible program development can be performed according to the purpose of each researcher using Mata. I will introduce examples of spatial statistics and spatial econometric applications that have been actively performed in recent years at Stata. The advantage of Mata is that it handles matrix operations intuitively. Because geographical space is treated as a matrix, one can perform flexible spatial analysis in Stata by linking it with Mata. The range of statistical analysis broadens widely by using the spgen command to calculate the space lag variables developed by the author; the getisord command can perform hotspot analysis and mutually uses the advantages of Stata and Mata. I will also introduce examples of using the Stata command related to the geographic information system, such as the method of creating maps in Stata.
    Oral presentation

■ Affiliated Academic Society
  • American Economic Association
    Apr. 2021 - Present

  • Regional Science Association International
    Jan. 2015 - Present

  • Western Regional Science Association
    Dec. 2013 - Present

  • Japan Society of International Economics
    Apr. 2012 - Present

  • Japanese Economic Association
    Apr. 2012 - Present

  • Applied Regional Science Conference
    Apr. 2011 - Present

■ Works
  • Keisuke Kondo
    Apr. 2024 - Present
    In response to the news "Eventual Extinction of Japan's municipalities" by the Population Strategy Council, I developed the web app that visualizes the percentage change in the female population aged 20-39.

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Jan. 2024 - Present
    As Japan is facing a declining population, there are fears that rural areas may disappear in the future due to a decrease in the population as residents through outmigration. On the other hand, there are still many attractive regions in rural areas that attract many people from outside, and it is necessary to re-evaluate regional values and sustainability from a different perspective. This study attempts to develop a novel indicator to quantify the regional attractiveness as a destination in a way that is not dependent on the size of the population as a place of residence. In the context of regional revitalization, this index is closely linked to creating a related population, as it is sometimes likened to more than tourism and less than immigration. The regional attractiveness index proposed by this study quantifies the attractiveness of trip destinations as a force that draws people from further away, using big data on people flow from "Mobile Spatial Statistics" (NTT Docomo) obtained through the RESAS API, from September 2015 to August 2016. In addition, a regional attractiveness index visualization system was developed as a web application to facilitate the social implementation of academic research.

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Mar. 2023 - Present
    This Web App visualizes the regional attractiveness index proposed by Kondo (2023, "Measuring the Attractiveness of Trip Destinations: A Study of the Kansai Region," RIEB Discussion Paper Series No. DP2023-07).

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Oct. 2022 - Present
    I propose a simple framework for the ex ante evaluation of migration subsidy. Recently, the Japanese government initiated a migration subsidy program to promote urban-to-rural migration for regional revitalization under the economy with a monopolar concentration in Tokyo. The ex ante evaluation framework proposed in my study formulates the payback period of interregional migration as investment behavior. In the model, households compare the sum of the expected benefits available each year after migration with the lump-sum costs of migration, which are estimated with structural estimation using the interregional migration flow data. The migration subsidy leads to an incentive for interregional migration by reducing the payback period. This Web app provides scientific insight into the potential impact of migration subsidy program, helping policymakers determine the optimal amount under the budget constraint.

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Mar. 2020 - Present, https://keisuke-kondo.shinyapps.io/covid19-simulator-japan/
    This shiny app visualizes simulation results of the spatial spread of COVID-19 obtained from the spatial SEIR model with interregional mobility in Japan. See Kondo (2021) for more details.
    DOI

■ Research Themes
  • Economic and social integration of immigrants in Japan: gender differences in behaviors and outcomes
    Yang Liu, Risa Hagiwara, Keisuke Kondo
    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Apr. 2023 - Mar. 2028, Coinvestigator

  • Integrated economic analysis of microdata and geospatial information
    近藤 恵介
    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, 01 Apr. 2021 - 31 Mar. 2026

  • Communication systems and development of urban and regional space: Implications for Tokyo monopolar concentration and work style reform
    Nobuaki Hamaguchi, Toshitaka Gokan, Keisuke Kondo, Hiroshi Goto, Masahisa Fujita
    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Kobe University, Apr. 2023 - Mar. 2026, Coinvestigator

  • Keisuke Kondo
    Kobe City, University's Urban Innovation Kobe, Nov. 2022 - Mar. 2023, Principal investigator
    神戸は、歴史・文化・芸術に富んだ日本有数の大都市であると同時に、海や山に面した自然豊かな都市でもある。しかしながら、新型コロナウイルス感染症の影響により、大都市の経済成長の源泉である外部からのビジネス・観光需要は落ち込んだままである。さらに、構造的な問題として人口減少に直面しており、都市内部の需要も減少することが予想される。今後、withコロナ・ポストコロナを見据えながら、いかに外部地域からビジネス・観光需要を継続的に取り込めるのかが神戸の経済成長の鍵となる。本研究では、人流データを解析することで、どのような目的で、どのような手段で、どこから神戸に来ている人々がにぎわいを創出しているのかを明らかにする。さらには、人が集まることによって神戸の商業活性化につながっているのかを統計分析により明らかにする。本研究により、人流データを活用した新たな政策立案の枠組みの提示を目指す。
    Competitive research funding

  • 近藤 恵介
    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, Apr. 2017 - Mar. 2023, Principal investigator
    【研究成果の概要】 人口減少に直面する日本において、仕事と子育ての両立をいかに達成していくのかが重要な課題となっている。人口減少のもと、まちづくりの観点からは都市集積の必要性が指摘される一方で、都市集積によってもたらされる混雑費用の増大は仕事と子育ての両立を困難にさせる可能性が指摘されている。本研究では、人口減少時代に求められる都市の在り方を踏まえ、都市集積が夫婦の出生行動に与える影響、大都市における通勤の混雑費用の定量的評価、地方創生に向けた移住支援事業の政策評価の3つのプロジェクトを実施した。以上の研究成果は、今後の少子化対策や地方創生の政策立案に大きく寄与することが期待される。 【研究成果の学術的意義や社会的意義】 本研究の学術的意義は、経済学における効用最大化理論の枠組みを軸に、都市集積が子どもの数に与える影響および通勤や移住における移動費用の評価において、定量的に示したことである。通勤や移住の分析では、性別、年齢、婚姻状態、子どもの有無、教育水準等の属性毎に移動費用が異なることを示した点にも大きな貢献がある。 本研究の社会的意義は、少子化対策への政策的含意をエビデンスに基づいて議論した点である。また本研究成果を社会実装するためウェブアプリを独自に開発し、政府が進めるエビデンスに基づく政策形成における先駆的な取り組みを行ったことである。
    Competitive research funding

  • Kondo Keisuke
    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2017
    In the literature on agglomeration and urban economics, it is known that wages are, on average, higher in larger cities. Many empirical studies find the "urban wage premium," which describes the positive relationship between wages and city size. In order to investigate the mechanism of urban wage premium, this study proposes a new decomposition approach using matched employer-employee data. This study finds that agglomeration economies contribute not only to firms' total factor productivity, but also to workers' dynamic skill upgrading, which explains why wages are higher in larger cities.

■ Social Contribution Activities
■ Media Coverage
■ Academic Contribution Activities
■ Others
  • Mexican Government Scholarship Program for International Students (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mexico)
    Aug. 2012 - May 2013, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mexico, Mexican Government Scholarship Program for International Students. URL: https://www.gob.mx/amexcid/acciones-y-programas/becas-para-extranjeros-29785

  • Japan-Mexico Exchange Program (National Council of Science and Technology)
    Aug. 2008 - Jul. 2009, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Japan-Mexico Training Program for the Strategic Global Partnership. URL: https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/mexico/jm_kk.html

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