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KOIKE AtsushiGraduate School of Engineering / Department of Civil EngineeringProfessor
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■ Paper- 2025, Transportation Research Procedia, 82, 938 - 956, EnglishAnalysis of Prediction Characteristics of GRP Change by the SCGE Model for the Linkage of Road Development and Regional Industrial Policy[Refereed]
- Elsevier BV, 2025, Transportation Research Procedia, 82, 588 - 603, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2024, Japanese Journal of JSCE, 80(2) (2), n/a - n/a[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2023, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 78(5) (5), I_363 - I_373, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2023, 土木計画学研究発表会・講演集（CD-ROM）, 68交通基盤整備と医療施設維持政策の包括的分析と政策提案
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2023, Japanese Journal of JSCE, 79(20) (20), n/a - n/a, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- This study examines the causal impact of highways on the Japanese economy, with a focus on quantifying the impact on the industrial sector. The highway network has expanded remarkably in Japan after the Second World War. The understanding of the effect of the highway investments so far is really helpful for planning the project of the highway construction in the future. Following Donaldson and Hornbeck (2016), we formulate the general equilibrium trade model and theoretically derive the relationship between “market access” and land value. We estimate the impact of market access and agglomeration economies on land values, using the data about land values in 222 Urban Employment Area (UEA). To deal with the identification issues caused by reverse causality or omitted variables, we rely on an instrumental variable (IV) approach. The results show that the land values are affected strongly by market access and population density.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2022, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 77(5) (5), I_95 - I_105, Japanese
- 2021, 土木計画学研究発表会・講演集, 63, 76 - 3高速道路ネットワーク整備が都市雇用圏の地価に及ぼす因果効果の推定Scientific journal
- In this paper, we conducted a questionnaire survey on web to understand the impact of the spread of COVID-19 and the government's request to refrain from socioeconomic activities on people's attitudes and behavior. The results showed that the risk of infection and death was overestimated by several times to thousands of times more than the actual risk. In addition, people do not thoroughly avoid touching their eyes, nose and mouth, which is an effective countermeasure against contact infection, and we pointed out the problems in providing information about it by the government. The results also show that more than 65% of the respondents supported the declaration of the state of emergency, that more people find enjoyment than stress in being at home, and that the opinions of experts were more influential in making decisions than those of newscasters, pundits and politicians.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2021, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 77(2) (2), 129 - 140, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2021, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), Vol.76(No.5) (No.5), I_507 - I_514, Japanese
Most of domestic freight are carried by cars, where roads play vital roles. In assessing transportation facilities such as roads, values of time is the significant index, where time is evaluated in terms of money. The value of freight travel time savings (VFTTS) have been defined and estimated based on opportunity costs of factors or willingness-to-pay for reducing transportation time. However, these are microscopic approaches which deal with each instance. Moreover, conventional methods cannot analyze the effects of specific conditions on VFTTS, such as disruptions of the supply chains right after natural disasters. A new methodology is required to understand roles of roads and plan them properly. In this study, it is hypothesized that freight transportations affect society and the economy through logistics and supply chains. VFTTS is newly defined by using the increment of economic welfare and the decrement of total freight transportation time caused by road improvements. To calculate these variables, a standard spatial computable general equilibrium model which assumes perfect competition is used. Moreover, parameters are set exogenously to reproduce the disaster on the model, which enables us to measure VFTTS right after natural disasters. These parameters in case of emergency had been estimated in a previous study to reproduce the damage of the Great East Japan Earthquake. As the results of simulation, it has been clarified that previous studies ignored the ripple effects and underestimated VFTTS. Moreover, it has demonstrated that VFTTS would rise right after natural disasters.
[Refereed] - 2020, 土木学会論文集D3(土木計画学), Vol.76(No.2) (No.2), 114 - 127, JapaneseSCGEモデルを活用した道路整備のストック効果最大化検討[Refereed]
- Iceberg transport cost model is widely employed to describe transportation cost in theoretical economic analysis and quantitative analysis such as Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) analysis. Iceberg transport cost is, however, assumes that the production of goods and the transportation of the goods are conducted using same production technology. Therefore, in SCGE model, each production sector produces goods and the transportation services of the goods. The problem of SCGE model with iceberg transport cost model is that the level of goods production and their transportation are indistinguishable. This study analyzes the problem theoretically and quantitatively. The quantitative analysis is conducted using two types SCGE models: a SCGE model employing iceberg transportation cost model and employing non-iceberg transportation cost model. The quantitative analysis shows that a SCGE model employing iceberg transportation cost model is not suitable to assess the change in the level of goods production caused by traffic improvement.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2020, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), Vol.76(No.2) (No.2), 91 - 99, Japanese[Refereed]
- Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is widely used to investigate the economic impacts of freight transportation cost reduction brought by the development of transportation infrastructure. When using CGE model for this kind of policy evaluation, it is important to model the freight transportation cost appropriately with the limited availability of data. This study considers two representative models of transportation cost. The first is 1) iceberg transportation cost model and the second is 2) transportation sector model. With both analytical calculation and numerical simulation, this study identifies the properties of the bias of each model’s assumption that distorts the evaluation of the economic impacts of transportation cost reduction. Then, this study considers the appropriate modeling of transportation cost and the appropriate procedure when using CGE model in order to reduce these bias.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2020, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), Vol.76(No.2) (No.2), 72 - 90, Japanese[Refereed]
- SCGE (S̄patial C̄omputable Ḡeneral Ēquilibrium) model has been developed as a comprehensive policy assessment methodology in the infrastructure planning and management field. Since this field is strongly interested in spatial economic impacts of transport policy, disaster shock and so on, many researches have made efforts to improve how to model the “spatial” interaction via transport system. This article reviews the development of SCGE models in the infrastructure planning and management field as an introduction of the special issue “Frontier of spatial computable general equilibrium analysis in the infrastructure planning and management” and describe the breakthrough of each paper included in this issue. We furthermore mention some perspectives of the future research.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2020, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), Vol.76(No.2) (No.2), 63 - 71, Japanese
- 2020, 土木学会論文集D3(土木計画学), Vol.75(No.6) (No.6), I_29 - I_36, Japanese地域別公共投資によるクラウディングイン・アウト効果の計量[Refereed]
- 2020, Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Vol. 13(No. 1) (No. 1), 21 - 35, EnglishEstimation of Armington elasticities for trade-policy analysis[Refereed]
- 2020, Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 8(1) (1), 76 - 88, EnglishPRICE RISKS AND THE LEAD-LAG RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FUTURES AND SPOT PRICES OF SOYBEAN, WHEAT AND CORN[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Oct. 2019, CHINA AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, 12(1) (1), 71 - 89, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Aug. 2019, Sustainability, 11(16) (16), 4426 - 4426, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Apr. 2019, JOURNAL OF URBAN MANAGEMENT, 8(1) (1), 89 - 108, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2019, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), 75(5) (5), I_25 - I_32詳細地域間産業連関表推定における地域間所得移転の同定[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2019, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), 75(5) (5), I_17 - I_24, Japanese建設産業におけるTFP変化の要因分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Edward Elgar Publishing, 2018, Transportation, Knowledge and Space in Urban and Regional Economics, pp.123 - 145, EnglishArmington elasticities in multi-regional trade for transport policy in Japan[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2018, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2(3) (3), 283 - 301, EnglishA Heuristic Approach to the Estimation of Key Parameters for a Monthly,Recursive,Dynamic CGE Model[Refereed]Scientific journal
- EDP Sciences, Apr. 2017, MATEC Web of Conferences, 103, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- EDP Sciences, Apr. 2017, MATEC Web of Conferences, 103, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 2017, 土木学会論文集D3, Vol.73(No.5) (No.5), I_147 - I_161, Japanese震災直後の交通施設復旧施策と経済影響分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2017, 土木学会論文集D3, Vol.73(No.5) (No.5), I_195 - I_214, Japanese交通整備水準と生産性分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In Asian and ASEAN countries, there are many urban development plans based on the concept of Transit Oriented Development (TOD). The Computable Urban Economic (CUE) model, which enables simultaneous evaluation of urban and transportation development, is one of the major approaches for estimating the effects of a development plan based on TOD. However, these effects have been difficult to evaluate, especially in Asian and ASEAN countries apart from Japan, owing to the lack of public data on geographic land use by small zone units. We have estimated a detailed spatial scale land use dataset by using satellite images. This enables land use classification on an appropriate scale for the evaluation of TOD. This paper describes the evaluation results of the development plan of Taoyuan City, Taiwan that was carried out by building a detailed spatial scale CUE model based on data and our estimation approach.Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2017, Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4(Issue3) (Issue3), 565 - 584, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2017, INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING 2016 (ISCEE 2016), 103, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 2017, The Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Volume 12, pp1143 - 1162, EnglishDevelopment of a CUE Model Considering Heterogeneous Households[Refereed]Scientific journal
- This paper constructs a new economic geography (NEG) model incorporating a natural disaster risk and examines the interrelationship between industrial agglomeration and vulnerability of a spatial economy. We shows that the location pattern emerging as the market equilibrium is characterized by over-agglomerationJSCE, Mar. 2016, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 72(1) (1), 99 - 112, Japanese
and more vulnerable than that of social optimum. By analyzing the[Refereed]Scientific journal - 2016, 土木計画学研究・講演集, vol.53独占的競争型SCGEモデルにおける交易再現性の改善Scientific journal
- As economic losses caused by natural disasters increase, assessing the economic impact of a future possible natural disaster is becoming more and more important. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a strong candidate for such an assessment. The CGE approach is, however, criticized in that key parameters are often not econometrically estimated.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2016, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), Vol.72(No.5) (No.5), I_111 - I_121, Japanese
The first purpose of this study is to calibrate a set of substitution parameters in a CGE model for the economic impact assessment of a natural disaster. The study develops a recursive-dynamic multiregional CGE model for Japan and then calibrates a set of substitution parameters for this model. A heuristic method is employed for the calibration, in which the substitution parameters in the CGE model are adjusted so as to reproduce the actual economic impacts of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake.
The second purpose of this study is to conduct a quantitative assessment of the economic impacts of inoperative oil refinery plants stemming from the Nankai trough great earthquake using the CGE model with the calibrated substitution parameters. The impacts on GDP, GRP, and production of the other industries are assessed.[Refereed]Scientific journal - Although it is important to understand the influence of consumer behavior on regional economy, as far as we know, no empirical research has been conducted in Japan. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the economic impact of consumer's behavior on regional economy. We investigated two local merchants and four chain stores in Kyoto-city in order to compare the local economic return of consumption. As a result it was shown that if some shopping is done at local merchant, approximately 52% of consumption revenue will return to local economy, however if some shopping is done at chain store, the return rate will become about its half. This result suggests us about a desirable consumer behavior for regional vitalization.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2016, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), Vol.72(No.5) (No.5), I_393 - I_405, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2016, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, 72(1) (1), pp.99 - 112, Japanese産業の過剰集積がもたらす災 害脆弱性と交通インフラの減災施策[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Spatial economic equilibrium model requires a inter-regional trade data as monetary term by Input-Output table. However, we only have the Input-Output table on the among nine region data in Japan. We need to prepare the another index to apply the economic equilibrium model, because the empirical policy analysis requires at more subdivided regional data. This paper shows the characteristic comparison between statistical data on inter-regional trade/freight data and inter-enterprise data as another index. At a conclusion, although we show the inter-regional freight census data by MLIT and inter-enterprise data by TDB is effective index to subdivide into small region, they have some problem. In this paper, we propose some measures to mitigate those problem at empirical analysis.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2016, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学, Vol.72(No.5) (No.5), I_201 - I_211, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- CUE model (Computable Urban Economic models) is a tool for analyzing real urban economies and evaluating urban policies. In CUE model, utility level of household is formularized as household behavior model. households earn income by providing labor and consume composite goods and land services so as to maximize utility under given monetary and time constraints. Location Choice function is formularized as logit model based on household's utility. However, the statistical verification of the dispersion parameter are insufficient. Also, the dispersion parameter's value is set as 1 mainly on precedence research. So, analyses for Kobe city were conducted to validate validity of the location choice functions. Then, precision on long term prediction are low and impacts on adjustment item are high. However adjustment item is unclear logically. Therefore, 3 suggestions for improvement about location choice functions are given and the directions of expansion in CUE model are indicated.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2016, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), Vol.72(No.5) (No.5), I_695 - I_705, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2015, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol. 71(No. 5) (No. 5), I_553 – I_545, Japanese物流拠点を経由する都市間物流モデルの構築[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 土木学会, 2015, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol. 71(No. 5) (No. 5), I_201 – I_208, Japanese高速道路のリダンダンシー効果が地域経済に与える影響分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2015, Uddevalla Symposium 2014 - Geography of Growth - The Frequency, Nature and Consequences of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Regions of Varying Density, pp507 - pp521, EnglishArmingon Elasticities in the Multi-Regional Trade for the Transport Policy in Japan[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- Japan Transport Research Institute, 2014, Transport Policy Studies' Review, 17(2) (2), 2 - 12, Japanese
By using a travel demand forecasting model that covers both inner-city and inter-city transportations of whole of Japan, we discuss economically efficient regional CO2 emissions reduction quotas. We calculate the CO2 emissions reduction by introducing a fuel tax as a countermeasure against global warming at each region and illustrate the results can be applied to decide the regional quotas. In our analysis, it has been shown that the CO2 emissions reduction per capita due to the taxation, which is equal to the region's reduction quota per capita, is bigger in rural areas than in urban areas.
[Refereed]Scientific journal - The purpose of this paper is to develop the SCGE model for finely-divided regions in order to conduct positive analysis and estimate economic impacts. In our study, the model deals with 2,342 cites in Japan and takes into account inter-regional freight transport, commuting and capital flows between each city.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2014, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 70(5) (5), I_151 - I_159, Japanese
In the positive analysis, the developed model is applied to the case of Great East Japan Earthquake. The damage of the earthquake is expressed as decrease in the production efficiency of firms, which is assumed to be equivalent to the rate of capital stock decrease in the inland and coast regions in the suffered area, i.e., Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, and Ibaraki Prefecture. The result shows not only that large economic damage has occurred in these suffered areas, but also that the economic damage has affected all East Japan and industrial areas of Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku and Kyushu District.[Refereed]Scientific journal - 2014, 土木学会論文集D3, Vol.70(No.1) (No.1), pp.102 - 112, Japanese災害時のソーシャルメディアと帰宅行動の関連性分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Armington elasticity is one of the most important parameter in the application of SCGE models. So, a number of researches were have been published in order to estimate this parameter. However, they have not considered a change of the time. If some kind of factors such as catastrophe happened, this Armington parameter might have been changed.土木学会, 2014, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.70(No.5) (No.5), I_161 - I_171, Japanese
In this paper, time series data was used to examine a time stability of Armington parameter. As a result, it was stable in many industries. However, in some industries, such as iron and steel industry, Armington elasticity has changed before and after the disaster.[Refereed]Scientific journal - This paper will assess the current development status of Corridor 5 as a transport corridor. To assess the current development status, the report will observe the road conditions and Border Crossing Point (BCP) procedure processing durations. Second, impact of the improvement of Corridor 5 on Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic exports to major trading partners will be considered. Third, the report will estimate the possible time reduction of transportation along Corridor 5 and consider the impacts of time saving on exports of Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic. The findings of the report will be utilized as basis for the study to consider Corridor 5 as an economic corridor. The report conducts a model analysis using a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model called RAEM-Light model. It assesses how time reduction of transportation along Corridor 5 due to improvement of the corridor will expand exports from Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic.土木学会, 2014, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.70(No.5) (No.5), I_229 - I_240, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- The Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) models have been empirically applied at several spatial sizes such as international and interregional scale. These models require a decision making model for trade change. The trade model is one of critical component because the SCGE model provides the effective information at each regional zone. Therefore, the characteristics of these trade models should be cleared. This paper focus on the interregional trade model which has not been cleared the theoretical and empirical characteristic. Interregional trade model is defined by two approaches which are Armington approach and Dispersed Spatial Price Equilibrium approach. Although these models have been already empirically installed to the SCGE model, these have some theoretical or empirical problem. In this paper, we propose some improvements for these problems and show the characteristics of each model.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2014, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.70(No.5) (No.5), I_173 - I_186, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- When proposing policies that aim to promote inbound and outbound tourism markets, there should be a focus not only on the tourism demand in a certain region but also on interregional relationships. To address this issue, we have developed the methodology for the quantitative analysis of tourism demand structure by focusing on the elasticity of destination choice activities. The demand function of destination choice activities is defined as a Dynamic AIDS (Almost Ideal Demand System) model. The main goal of this research is to examine the applicability of the AIDS models to the estimation of Japanese international tourism demand.Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2014, Asian Transport Studies, Volume3(Issue1) (Issue1), pp.125 - 142, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2013, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.69(No.4) (No.4), I_265 - I_272, Japanese西日本における国土強靭化インフラ整備による総合的マクロ効果予測研究[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 運輸政策研究機構, 2013, 運輸政策研究, Vol.16(No.2) (No.2), pp.41 - 52, Japanese高速道路料金割引施策による経済効果の空間的帰着分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- The objective of this paper is to construct the SCGE (Spatial Computable General Equilibrium) model not only estimate the road development effect but also port development effect. This constructed model has the advantage which can estimate the differences of development effect and the synergetic effect among the road and the port policy at same analytical platform. Especially, this paper develops the empirical SCGE model based on the RAEM-Light model which can estimate the product change at subdivided regional area such as the municipalities. Therefore, these analytical information by the constructed model will contribute to the effective decision making on the project priority and combination of the project implementation at regional policy.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2013, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.69(No.5) (No.5), I_283 - I_295, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Construction Management Committee, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2013, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.69(No.4) (No.4), I_265 - I_272, Japaneseわが国の建設産業と技術進歩－全要素生産性を用いて－[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2013, Proceedings of Uddevalla Symposium 2013, pp.425 - 441, EnglishThe Spatial Economic Impacts of Road Network Development on the Tourism Industry-An Analysis Based on Estimates of Value-Added at the Municipal Level in Japan[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 2013, 13th World Conference on Transportation Research Society (WCTR),RIo de Janeiro, Brazil, EnglishTheoretical and Empirical Verification of the Inter-regional Trade Modeling in the Spatial CGE model for Transport Improvements[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- Dec. 2012, JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS, 18(4) (4), 252 - 260, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- IS-LM analysis has been a mainstream of effects on public investment with interests on if "crowding out" affects private investments. Authors' past studies in this subject have concluded crowding out would not occur under deflationary recessions when economy is in a liquidity trap. Yet, IS-LM analysis will not counter the criticism that it does not reflect future expectations (i.e. Lucas critique). However, recent advancement in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model allowed the situation to improve. Hence, this study estimates the effects of public investment (i.e. fiscal policy) in Japan under a liquidity trap, using DSGE model by estimating deep parameters with Bayes estimation and MCMC procedure based on the data since 2000.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2012, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.68(No.4 特集号論文集) (No.4 特集号論文集), I_21 - I_19, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Thus far, in the field of infrastructure planning and management, many types of economic equilibrium models have been developed. They have been advanced independently based on traditional economics through careful consideration of geographical spaces, for example, cities or regions. In recent times, they have been widely and successfully used in practice as tools for policy and project evaluation. This article reconfirms the significance of economic equilibrium models in the field of infrastructure planning and management in the special issue "Recent progress in economic equilibrium modeling for infrastructure planning and management; computable general equilibrium models and computable urban economic models." The article proceeds to describe the papers that are included in this special issue.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68(No.4) (No.4), 285 - 290, JapaneseScientific journal
- 2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68(No.5) (No.5), I_111, Japanese電力供給不足による経済的影響分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68(No.5) (No.5), I_55, Japanese地域間交易の代替弾力性の推定[Refereed]Scientific journal
- The difference of the unit price of water used has been focused. Since water pricing has some effects on the local economic development, it is important to set an appropriate water price considering the amount of water used in different type of industries. In this study, a statistical approach has been performed to examine the relationship between unit price of water use and area characteristics such as the rate of manufacturing business amount, immigration of laborers and management of sewerage system. In addition, a local economic model that includes the manufacturing industries and households has constructed. In terms of economic welfare, it is desirable to reduce unit of water price in the local area which is depended on the manufacturing industries.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2012, 土木学会論文集G（環境）, Vol.68(No.7) (No.7), Ⅲ_175 - Ⅲ_183, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2012, 第４９回環境工学研究フォーラム講演集, 199 - 201, Japanese社会・経済的産業関連表の構築による人口減少・高齢化の社会的影響分析Symposium
- 高速道路調査会, 2012, 高速道路と自動車, 第55巻(第3号) (第3号), 18 - 26, Japanese高速道路破断に伴う経済的影響の空間的把握－地域間産業連関表を用いた短期的影響分析－[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Many studies of infrastructure productivity have been conducted. Researchers have estimated the production function including infrastructure stock as a production factor by using time-series and regional data as macro data and have determined whether or not infrastructure development has significant effects on national economy. On the other hand, Barro and Sala-i-Matin (1992) reported that the influence of accessibility improvement by infrastructure development has marginally decreased recently. Although these discussions have focused on the national economic growth, we don't get the information how economic changes in the regional economic level by infrastructure development. On the other hands, we know the regional infrastructure development has several effects as our current experience. Some of the effects are positive, such as increasing productivity in a private sector and inducing regional development, but some are negative, such as inducing the outflow of consumption from smaller, local cities to larger cities (This is known as the "Straw Effect"). These phenomena, however, have not been studied in practical terms. In this paper, the fixed effect model based on the panel data is used to clarify the positive and negative regional economic effects of existing expressway development. Using panel data (time series and regional statistical information), it is possible to analyze the spatial influence of expressway development. And this model is constructed by formulating a correlation between expressway development (change of accessibility) and regional economic effect. We used this model to clarify the positive and negative effects about population, productivity and production changes by existing expressway development in Japan. In the conclusion, the population in most rural regions is decreasing with expressway development. However, economic activities such as manufacturing, wholesale and retail production are increasing. This shows that the expressway development has a possibility to make relocate the population distribution, and contributes to an efficient economic activity.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68(No.4) (No.4), 388 - 399, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 土木学会, 2012, 土木学会論文集D3, Vol.68(No.5) (No.5), I_349 - 361, Japanese交通ネットワーク整備が観光産業の生産活動へ与える空間的影響の把握～鳥取・兵庫県の日本海地域における基礎自治体レベルの観光産業の付加価値推計をふまえた検討～[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68(No.4) (No.4), 344 - 357, Japanese応用都市経済モデルの課題と展望[Refereed]Scientific journal
- This paper studies how the multiplier effects of public investment under deflation economy differ from those under inflation economy. And this study seeks the necessary size and period of impact to recover from deflation by Keynesian model, focusing on presence or absence of crowding out of public investment under deflationary recession. In particular, the primary purpose of this study is empirical analysis of the effects by public investment under many policy scenarios, such as the investment on reconstruction of the Great East Japan Earthquake or the construction of the New Tomei Expressway. The results show that since crowding out does not occur under deflation, multiplier effect would be higher (approximately 0.2 point) than that under inflation. Moreover, assuming that the current financial situation continues, the deflation will be diminished if the size of public investment of the 1990s continues.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2012, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.68(No.4 特集号論文集) (No.4 特集号論文集), I_21 - I_32, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68(No.4) (No.4), 316 - 332, Japaneseアジア高速鉄道整備の経済・環境影響の国際比較－旅客を考慮したSCGEモデルによる計量分析－[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Construction Management Committee, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2011, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.67,No.4, I_327-I_338(4) (4), 327 - 338, Japanese現下の経済動向を踏まえた公共投資効果に関する基礎的研究[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2011, International Journal of GEOMATE, Vol. 1, No. 2 (Sl. No. 2), pp., EnglishImpact Analysis of Water Price Reform of Zhangye, China[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 運輸政策研究機構, 2011, 運輸政策研究, Vol.14 No.3,pp.2-8(3) (3), 2 - 8, JapaneseAI Demand Systemモデルによる交通需要弾力性推定による政策分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jul. 2010, JOURNAL OF FOOD AGRICULTURE & ENVIRONMENT, 8(3-4) (3-4), 772 - 778, EnglishEfficiency and its determinant factors for smallholder farms in the Grain for Green Program on the Loess Plateau, China[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Apr. 2010, JOURNAL OF FOOD AGRICULTURE & ENVIRONMENT, 8(2) (2), 1185 - 1192, EnglishAssessing total factor productivity and efficiency change for farms participating in Grain for Green program in China: A case study from Ansai, Loess Plateau[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Feb. 2010, Kozgazdasagi Szemle, Vol.LVII, pp.165-180, EnglishEffect analysis of regional development policy using a spatial numerical model of general equilibrium[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2010, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.27,No.1,pp.71-80, Japanese地方の社会資本整備についての分配的公正心理に関する研究[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.141-148, Japanese防災計画のための空間被害分布分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 国際交通安全学会, 2009, IATSS Review, Vol.34,No.1,pp.6-14(1) (1), 6 - 14, Japanese道路ネットワーク整備が人口・社会構成へ及ぼす影響分析-中国地方におけるパネルデータ分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.189-196, Japanese港湾取扱貨物量を明示化した道路ネットワーク評価モデルの構築~応用一般均衡モデル「RAEM-Light」を用いたアプローチ~[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 国際交通安全学会, 2009, IATSS Review, Vol.34,No.1,pp.34-44(1) (1), 34 - 44, Japanese港湾貨物取扱貨物量の変化が中国地方の道路ネットワーク整備効果へ与える影響-東アジアの経済成長を視野に入れた検討-[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.209-218, Japanese空間的応用一般均衡分析における地域細分化による道路整備便益の影響分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.161-168, Japanese空間的応用一般均衡モデル「RAEM-Light」を用いた道路ネットワーク評価~地域間公平性の視点からの実務的アプローチ~[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2009, TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD, Volume 2133, pp.46-55(2133) (2133), 46 - 55, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2009, Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, Vol.26, No.1, pp.3-15, 3 - 14, ChineseSCGE Model Construction and Simulation Analysis of the Agricultural Subsidy Policy in China[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2009, Systems Engineering -Theory & Practice, Vol.29, No.10, pp.13-20, ChineseImpact analysis on China cotton economy from cotton subsidies cancellation by developed countries: Based on the spatial computable general equilibrium model[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.133-140, 133 - 140, JapaneseDEA手法による公営企業の運営効率性評価-公営バス事業を事例とした評価[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 運輸政策研究機構, 2008, 運輸政策研究, Vol.10,No.4,pp.21-32(4) (4), 21 - 32, Japanese準動学的SCGEモデルによる国際物流需要予測および港湾整備の便益評価[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 高速道路調査会, 2008, 高速道路と自動車, Vol.51,No.12,pp.27-33(12) (12), 27 - 33, Japanese帰着便益分析による道路ネットワーク整備の公平性評価[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 高速道路調査会, 2008, 高速道路と自動車, Vol.51,No.7,pp.23-30(7) (7), 23 - 30, Japaneseパネルデータ分析による道路ネットワーク整備の事後分析[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Kobe University, Oct. 2007, 国民経済雑誌, 196巻,4号,pp1-18(4) (4), 1 - 18, JapaneseScientific journal
- Recently, society needs more efficient public investments because of the financial difficulty in both of the central and the local governments. To make an efficient public investment plan, planner should understand quantitative structure of benefit incidence and cost burden of the local public investments. In this study, we propose measurement methods of benefit incidence and cost burden of the local public investments between regions. Finally, we apply this model to Japanese capital investment policy in order to understand the policy target of national spatial planning in Japan.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2007, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.24,pp.51-58, 51 - 58, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- It has become common to use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for evaluation of transportation investment, recently. In this study, we apply Dynamic Spatial CGE model to the prediction of transportation demand. SCGE model has some advantages to use for the prediction of transportation demand compared to using four-step method. Firstly, we summarize the advantage of SCGE model from ex-post evaluation point of view and propose a methodology for ex-post evaluation of the prediction of transportation demand. And, we apply this method to estimate the transportation demand in Japan.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2007, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.24,pp.67-74, 67 - 74, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 高速道路調査会, 2006, 高速道路と自動車, Vol.49,No.7,pp.17-26(7) (7), 17 - 26, Japanese新潟県中越地震における磐越道・上信越道のリダンダンシー効果[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In recent years, the computable general equilibrium analysis which faithfully reproduced the Warlas system has been widely used as the evaluation technique of infrastructure plan.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2006, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.23,pp.59-66, 59 - 66, Japanese
This study aims at performing sensitivity analysis of benefit evaluation for the road investment in consideration of a future social economy environmental change such as the population reduction and the economic growth of East Asia area in the future.
Specifically, it suggests the methodology to model the influence of a future social economic scenario conformably to the conventional spatial general equilibrium model and to carry out the actual empirical analysis.[Refereed]Scientific journal - In metropolitan area, traffic congestion will be serious and it will effect to the economic growth of national level in long term. Traditional traffic demand forecasting approaches was not able to estimate the economical impact on the current situation. Because of the traditional approach suppose that economic incidents were exogenous in the simulation. The purpose of this study is developed dynamic SCGE model with agglomeration economy that it can be comprehended quantitative economic impact of congestion simulation. By using developed dynamic SCGE model with agglomeration economy, it solves problem of multi equilibrium solution and evaluate quantitative economic impact.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2006, 土木計画学研究・論文集, pp.179-186, 179 - 186, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Recently, society needs more efficient public investment because of the financial difficulty of central and local government. Beside, regional economies through the interregional trade are connecting each other more strongly. To make a plan of the efficient public investment, planner should understand quantitative effect from the regional social capital investment. In this study, we analyze the regional propagation of the social capital investment by spatial computable general equilibrium model. In this analysis, we suppose 3 cases about contribution to Total Factor Productivity of social capital stock and estimate production functions in each case.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2006, 土木計画学研究・論文集, pp.203-209, 203 - 209, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Sumatra earthquake (that occurred on December, 2004.) had a devastating impact on both of the human damages and the physical damages, like physical assets and economy. Especially, economic damage by the catastrophe has spread not only stricken area but also not stricken area. However, it is difficult to assess the damage directly. So, the purpose of this study is to build spatial computable equilibrium (SCGE) model in order to estimate economic damages of Tsunami and applied this model for asses of the catastrophe. To be concrete, we build new SCGE in order to estimate economic damage by decreases of human resource, physical resources and Technology on stricken area.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2006, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.23,pp.273-280, 273 - 280, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In this paper, we develop a SCGE model which can measure the benefit of face-to-face communication in trip destination as technological externalities, in addition to user's benefit of transport facilities. By estimating the parameters and simulating the effect of inter-regional transport cost reduction, we indicate the possibility that the benefit of face-to-face communication is as large as the user's benefit. This SCGE model can be very useful and practical tool, because it can measure the effect of large-scale transport investment which has been measured by regional econometric models before.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2005, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.22,pp.111-120, 111 - 120, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2005, Global Competition in Transportation Markets: Analysis and Policy Making, 13, 165 - 196, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 2005, Global Competition in Transportation Markets: Analysis and Policy Making, 13, 233 - 249, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 地域農林経済学会, 2004, 農林業問題研究, 第40巻・第1号,pp.97-102(1) (1), 97 - 102, Japanese中国における農業関税削減政策による社会厚生効果の計量分析-空間的応用一般均衡モデルを[Refereed]Scientific journal
- For regional area, A decline of industry is caused by many type of social problem. In that case, local governments try to carry out some activation policies for regional industries. However, it is impossible to compare among those evaluations now, because a common evaluation method for those policies has been confined to Input-Output table analysis calculates not benefit only economic ripple effect as an output. Therefore, the purpose of this study is evaluation among those policies by benefit applying Computable General Equilibrium. We have already developed a basic model. In this study, we expand that model to be available for an evaluation of regional industrial policy.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2004, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.21,pp.217-224, 217 - 224, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Social capital investments affect not only to investment region's economy but also to other regions economy. This means that demolished social capital stock by catastrophe cause economic damage all over the nation. To assessment these economic damage, we need to build new spatial computable equilibrium model in the context of the production function of social capital stock. In this study, we build these SCGE model and apply this model for assessment of Japanese earthquake.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2004, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.21,pp.367-374, 367 - 374, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2004, Quantitative and Technical Economics, Economics, Vol.21, No.8, pp.19, ChineseA Model of Spatial Computable Equilibrium Analysis and Its Use in Analyzing China Agricultural Customs Tariff Policy[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Recently, It has become more common to use a computable general equilibrium model for evaluation of social capital investment policy. This is because that planner wants to know not only social net benefit, but also benefit incidence and cost burden of the project. However, when using CGE model in the urban area, the following issues are concerned.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2003, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.20,pp.79-85, 79 - 85, Japanese
(1) Input-Output data in urban area, being the base data in CGE analysis, do not actually exist.
(2) Closed economy assumption, which is the basis in conventional CGE model, cannot be applied to the analysis of urban area.
We have already developed an estimation method for urban area Input-Output table using non-survey. The purpose of this study is developed the CGE model in the context of open economy assumption. We apply this model to evaluate urban transportation policy.[Refereed]Scientific journal - The purpose of this study is to build an CGE model in the context of OLG model in order to evaluate optimal policy rules for provision of social overhead capital. The model includes a capital stock both of social overhead and private sections among economical behavior of industry and household, and evaluates economical effects of the two kinds of capital stocks. The model can explain productivity effects of social overhead capital, intergenerational income distribution effect of public loan, and substitutability between public service and social overhead capital. Empirical simulation based on macroeconomical data reveals the relationship between policy changes and social welfares, and the relationship between change of social economical conditions and optimal policy rule.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2003, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.20,pp.155-162, 155 - 162, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 高速道路調査会, 2002, 高速道路と自動車, 第45巻,第10号,pp.37-44(10) (10), 37 - 44, Japanese道路整備による地域別帰着便益の簡易計測手法の開発[Refereed]Scientific journal
- The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model has recently become to use as an evaluation technique of social capital improvement in the field of the infrastructure planning. This study aims to develop the CGE model that the effect measurement by a social overhead capital stock becomes possible, and to compare and to examine the simulation result ofusing the model and the result of the effect measurement by production function approach. It makes clear that accuracy of reproducibility of the current state in the CGE model causes deviation of change of value added and benefit by comparing between equivalent valuation obtained by simulating the CGE model and productive effect of the production function approach.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2002, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.19,pp.123-128, 123 - 128, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- The spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) models which are the extended CGE model, have been applied in order to estimate the spatial and economic impacts of transport policies. However, these model are developed for only freight transport improvement. Because, theoretical background of these models is based on spatial price equilibrium theory. So, the purpose of this study is development of a SCGE model for passenger transport improvement and applied this model for evaluation of Japanese new-Shinkansen project.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2000, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.17,pp.237-245, 237 - 245, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 1999, 運輸政策研究, Vol.2,No.2,pp.2-12, Japanese便益帰着構成表アプローチの現状と発展方向について[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Importance of higher education and R & D have been known, because they accumulate the human capital and lead to the regional development. The choice of highereducation is the most important factor for mobility of young people, and it is said this is regarded as one of the reasons of population concentration. Educational system has been analyzed in fields of educational economics, but in that studies spatial models haven't been applied. Therefore we build a system of two generation and two cities model with human capital, and we evaluate population distribution patterns due to the educational investment and discuss the way of educational investment in order to relax the population concentration.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 1999, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.16,pp.217-224, 217 - 224, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- The advance age society is the characteristic of industrialized countries. Japan is rapidly advancing the aging of population so that public service specific to the aged people must be a great concern. The benefit of investment to advanced age, but the cost should be burdened by not only them but also young people. Therefore we build A System of Cities Model with Over Lapping Generation, and analyze the effect the investment to local public goods for specific to aged people give nation wide spatial structure.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 1999, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.16,pp.201-206, 201 - 206, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Recently, transportation demand estimation model and land use model is developed based on microeconomics theory in the field of infrastructure planning. The purpose of this study is construct transportation and land use model that integrate these two model that developed for these independence. By this modeling, we can consider change of attending office behavior between cities due to transportation investment in this model. And, its benefit is easy to defined and measured. Finally, The practicality of this model is shown by numerical simulation.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 1997, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.14,pp.259-267, 259 - 267, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 1996, 応用地域学研究, 第2号,pp.179-187(2) (2), 179 - 187, Japanese首都機能移転効果分析のための一般均衡モデルと帰着便益連関表[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Unbalanced distribution of population, or mono-polar concentration, into the metropolitan area is the most serious issue in nationwide spatial planning. With the above background, this paper aims first, at showing a framework of modeling a system of cities and some examples of population distributions, or patterns of equilibrium geography. Then, the impact of transport investment under the mono-polar concentration is to be examined. For this purpose of the study, we build a socio-economic model within the framework of Walrasian multi-market equilibrium, and analyze the impact of transport investment on the population distribution and on the social welfare.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 1996, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.13,pp.289-294, 289 - 294, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Some studies on mesurement of effect of Sea Level Rise are discussed, but did not take account of indirect damage, are fear double count and lose count of damage etc. In this study, we propose mesurement method of benefits of countermeasures of Sea Level Rise by change in consumer's surplus that induces from the sift in land demand function. To be concreat, the definition is used the equivalent valuaion method that is developed within the framework of general equilibrium. The practicality of this method is shown through a case study.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Mar. 1995, Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu D, 1, 127 - 136, English
- 1995, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.12,pp.739-746, 739 - 746, Japanese排出ガス制御政策からみた自動車燃料価格水準に関する考察[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 1995, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.12,pp.131-140, 131 - 140, Japanese首都機能移転の地域間便益帰着構造[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 1995, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.12,pp.283-294, Japanese自動車交通の公平な燃料価格水準[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Because environmental resouces of the park are not directly trade in the market, it has been traditionally considered difficult toquantify non-market values, that is, benefits derived from the improvement of environmental quality of the park. In this study, a new non-market valuation method is proposed, where a benefit measurement model for the park improvement works is constructed within the framwork of partial equilibrium by defining the benefits by the equivalent valuation in the utility theory and defining the travel cost of access to the park as the price level. needed by people in order to give up or accept the improvement. The practicality of this method is shown through a case study.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 1995, 土木学会論文集, No.518,IV-28,pp.135-144(518) (518), 135 - 144, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 1995, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.12,pp.141-150, 141 - 150, Japanese海面上昇の被害とその対策の便益の計測手法[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2023, 交通工学, 58, 45 - 52公共投資・交通政策の評価
- 2020, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 61A NEW METHODOLOGY OF MEASURING THE VALUE OF FREIGHT TRAVEL TIME SAVINGS
- 2018, 運輸と経済, 第78巻(第7号) (第7号), pp.84 - 87, Japanese費用便益分析と空間的応用一般均衡分析の役割分担Introduction scientific journal
- 交通工学研究会 ; [1966]-, 2017, 交通工学, Vol.52(No2) (No2), pp.66 - 71, Japanese今後の費用便益分析Introduction scientific journal
- 高速道路調査会, 2016, 高速道路と自動車, 第59巻(第2号) (第2号), pp.5 - 8, Japanese道路のストック効果は計測可能なのか？Introduction scientific journal
- 化学工業日報社, Nov. 2015, 化学経済, 62(13) (13), 72 - 77, Japanese南海トラフ巨大地震による製油所被災の経済被害評価
- 2013, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 48交通インフラ整備による地域に帰着するマクロ経済効果の予測手法に関する研究
- 交通工学研究会, Jul. 2010, Traffic engineering, 45(4) (4), 38 - 43, JapaneseEx-post analysis of expressway development and regional economic in Chugoku and Shikoku Area
- 日本交通政策研究会, Apr. 2000, 日交研シリーズ A, (280) (280), 2 - 3〜5,2-1〜18, Japanese旅客トリップを明示したSCGモデルとその応用事例 (交通社会資本が都市地域構造に及ぼす効果の研究)
- 30 Sep. 1999, 地理情報システム学会講演論文集 = Papers and proceedings of the Geographic Information Systems Association, 8, 249 - 252, JapaneseExample of Benefit Evaluation for GIS
- Contributor, 日本評論社, Mar. 2021, Japanese, ISBN: 9784535559943価値創造の考え方 : 期待を満足につなぐために
- Joint work, 中央経済社, Nov. 2018, Japaneseインフラを科学する―波及効果のエビデンスScholarly book
- Single work, コロナ社, 2018, Japanese社会資本整備の空間経済分析Scholarly book
- Joint work, International Transport Forum,OECD, 2018, EnglishPolicies to Extend the Life of Road AssetsScholarly book
- Others, 学芸出版, Mar. 2015, Japaneseようこそドボク学科へ！General book
- Others, 一般財団法人運輸政策研究機構, 2014, Japanese都市間交通と気候変動Scholarly book
- Others, Springer, 2014, EnglishIntercity Transport and Climate ChangeScholarly book
- Others, 理工図書, 2012, Japanese公共事業の思想―文化創造としての公共事業とその最前線Scholarly book
- 第70回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2024, Japanese大局的影響分析への合成コントロール法の適用―COVID-19による都道府県別宿泊者数への影響―
- 第70回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2024, Japanese費用便益分析から考える社会資本の再定義
- 第70回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2024, Japanese余暇と労働のトレードオフを取り入れた定量的空間経済モデルによる出生率の予測
- 第68回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2023イギリスにおける事業評価制度のレビューと我が国への示唆
- 第61回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2020, Japanese貨物輸送の時間価値計測のための新たな手法の提案Oral presentation
- 第61回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2020, Japanese建設産業の市場特性と雇用問題Oral presentation
- 第59回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2019, Japanese防災資本を考慮した動学マクロ経済モデルによる社会資本整備水準Oral presentation
- 第59回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2019, Japanese地域別公共投資によるクラウディングイン・アウト効果の計量Oral presentation
- 第52回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2015, Japanese, 土木学会土木計画学研究委員会, 秋田大学, Domestic conference産業の過剰集積がもたらす災害脆弱性と交通インフラの減災施策Oral presentation
- The 5th International Seminar on Integration of Spatial Computable General Equilibrium and Transport Modeling, Oct. 2015, English, Kobe University, International conferenceIndustrial Location and Vulnerability to Natural HazardsOral presentation
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2024 - 31 Mar. 2026東京一極集中の要因の再検証
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2023 - 31 Mar. 2026東京一極集中の要因の再検証
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2022 - 31 Mar. 2025Development of a comprehensive evaluation method for medical equalization policy本研究は，社会資本の中でも特に重要な医療の均霑化施策に着目し，権利のストック効果の計測のための包括的分析手法の構築を行うことを目的としている．医療の「均霑化」とは主に医療政策の分野で用いられる用語で，医療サービスの地域格差をなくし，全国どこでも誰もが等しく高度な医療を受ける権利を享受できるようにすることを目指しており，その中で交通整備に代表されるインフラストラクチャーの役割を明確にすることを目的としている．具体的には，需要面から①地域別将来患者数・病床数予測モデルの構築を行い小地域での医療需要の将来予測を可能にする．また供給面から②医療サービス供給モデルの構築を行い，地域における医療機関の参入・撤退要因を明らかにする．さらに，③両モデルを用いたシナリオ分析を通して，医療均霑化のための地域に応じた最適施策を提案し，社会資本が持つ権利のストック効果の定量化の方法を提案する． すでに，これらのモデル分析をすべて終え，様々な知見を得ることができた．特に，交通整備だけでは，医療の均霑化の実現は難しく，医療政策と同時に総合的に考えなければならないなどの結論が得られた．なお，最終年となるR6は各種政策提案の頑健性を確認すると同時に，公表に向けた準備を行う．
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2022 - 31 Mar. 2025Development of a comprehensive evaluation method for medical equalization policy
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2020 - 31 Mar. 2023大規模小売店舗の影響に関する総合的実証的研究
本研究は，大規模小売店舗（大型店）の出店・撤退の影響を総合的な実証分析により把握することを目的としている．具体的には [I] 統計的因果推論アプローチ，[II] 構造推定アプローチ，[III] 行動モデルアプローチの3つのアプローチを用いて，研究期間内に以下の点を明らかにするものである．[I]大型店の出店・撤退が地域に与えた因果的な影響を統計的因果推論により明らかにする．[II] 経済モデルを用いて，[I]と合わせて複数のアプローチによる大型店の出店・撤退の影響分析を行うとともに，社会的厚生に与えた影響を明らかにする． [III]. 大型店の出店・撤退メカニズムを相互作用を考慮した行動モデルの開発と適用を通じて明らかにする． 昨年度は，[I]，[II]，[III] それぞれにおいて引き続き文献レビューとデータ収集を行うとともに，[I] については統計的因果推論手法の検証と関連する実証分析，[II]，[III]については，アンケート調査に基づくモデル分析を行い，一定の成果を得た．具体的には，[I] については，「大型小売店データ」（東洋経済）と公示地価のデータセットを構築し，大規模小売店舗の出店が固定資産税に与える影響を考える上での基礎として，商業地価への影響を地方別に分析し，いくつかの有益な示唆を得た．また，その成果を論文として投稿した．[II]，[III]については，アンケート分析に基づき，地域通貨両面市場における消費者と店舗の相互作用に関するモデル開発と実証分析を行った． - 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2020 - 31 Mar. 2023EBPMに向けた交通インフラ・ストック効果計測手法の確立と事後評価への展開令和3年度の研究実績として，主に以下に示す成果を得た． １．差の差分(DD) 法による交通インフラ・ストック効果計測手法の開発と実証 我が国における高速道路整備がIC 周辺地域の雇用や事業所立地に及ぼす因果効果をランダムサンプリングと傾向スコアマッチング・差分の差分法を用いて推定した．その上で，処置群をいくつかの距離帯に分けて推定を行うことによって，効果の及ぶ空間範囲を明らかにした．さらに，従来より採用される代替的手法である，処置群の周辺地域（あるいは，周辺地域に含まれる個体）を対照群とする手法との比較を通じて，提案手法の有効性を示した．また，Synthetic control法や複数処置変数を考慮した傾向スコア法など新たな手法を適用し，交通インフラ整備の影響に関する実証分析を行なった． 2．操作変数法による高速交通ネットワーク整備政策の事後評価 三大都市（東京・大阪・名古屋）を除いた地方部の都市雇用圏を対象として，高速道路ネットワークの整備水準を示す市場アクセスと集積の経済を示す雇用者密度がそれぞれ地価に及ぼす因果効果の推定を行った．その際，欠落変数や逆の因果性によるバイアスが生じる可能性を考慮し，明治時代の市場アクセスと人口密度を操作変数とする操作変数法を採用した．推定の結果，市場アクセスと雇用者密度に関して共に有意な結果が得られたことから，高速道路ネットワークによる他都市へのアクセス性や雇用者密度が地価に正の因果効果を及ぼすことが明らかとなった．最小二乗法と操作変数法の推定値の差が比較的に小さいことから，これまでの高速道路整備が地方都市圏間で大きな偏りが生じないように満遍なく進められてきた可能性が示唆された．
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2019 - 31 Mar. 2022Optimal level of infrastructure related expenses -theoretical and empirical approach-現在，わが国の公共事業関係費は対GDP比で3.2％であり，ピーク時と比較して半減している．他方，欧米諸国との比較では，依然高い水準にある．この水準が適切であるかどうかの判断は，単純な各国比較や時系列比較だけでなく，理論的・実証的・構造的アプローチが不可欠である．理論的分析では動学マクロ経済学のフレームでインフラストラクチャーの特性を再定義し，理論的な最適性がどのような要因に依存するのかを検証する．その結果，不確実性が高いわが国では，インフラストラクチャーの社会的価値が高く，より高い水準での整備が正当化されることを証明した．実証的分析では社会資本ストック額および公共事業関係費と経済成長力に関する因果推論を実施することで，様々な面でのインフラストラクチャーの効果の計測に成功している．さらに，構造的分析では，建設産業および入札制度，地理的要因などに着目し，わが国の公共事業の費用構造に関する特異性を分析した．これら，３つの分析を総合的に判断し，最終的にはわが国の公共事業関係費の現状水準は，最適水準と比較して低いことがあきらかになった．そして，その要因をインフラの意思決定手法にあると考え，公共財としてではないインフラストラクチャーの価値としてまとめた．そこでは，これまでインフラストラクチャーがサミュエルソンが定義した公共財としての価値のみに注目していることを指摘し，宇沢弘文が定義した社会的共通資本としての価値，すなわち，国民の基本的権利を満たすものとする価値が存在し，その価値観の共有こそが重要であることを示した．次年度は，これらの知見を欧米のインフラストラクチャー評価手法と比較検討することで，わが国におけるインフラストラクチャーの評価手法の再構築を目指す．
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Tokyo Metropolitan University, 01 Apr. 2019 - 31 Mar. 2022Development of the integrated methodology to assess the economic effects of transport project and disaster prevention project市町村単位に分割された地域単位で構成される多地域経済システムを対象としたSCGE（空間的応用一般均衡）モデルの標準形を確立した．特に本研究では，モデルを構築するための基準データが十分に存在しない場合において，近年研究が進んでいる計量経済学的手法を活用することによりパラメータ推定の際に生じるバイアスを軽減させる方法論を確立した．これにより，粗い地域単位で分割された地域間交易データのみが利用可能な場合においても詳細な地域単位で構成されるSCGEモデルの基準均衡状態を再現することが可能となった．加えて，本理論を応用し，理論モデルから地域間輸送障壁を逆算する手法を提案し，過去の都市間交通整備効果の事後検証を定量的に評価する方法論を開発した． また，交通整備政策分析を目的とするSCGEモデルにおいて重要な課題となっている輸送費用のモデリング技法について，経済理論および分析結果感度の観点から，従来より提案されている複数の手法を比較検討し，それぞれの方法論の長短所を実証的に整理した． 従来の多くの手法が，国内地域間交通を対象とするモデリング技術であることを踏まえ，国際物流に資する重要な交通社会基盤である港湾整備政策の効果を適切に評価するため，港湾政策実施後の利用者の港湾選択の変化を捉え背後圏地域への経済波及効果を分析することが必要であるが，本研究では，従来の一般均衡モデルに「国際輸送経路選択」と「港湾サービス生産」を明示的に組み込んだ多地域開放経済モデルを構築した．
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kyoto University, 01 Apr. 2018 - 31 Mar. 2021レジリエンス投資のマクロ計量経済モデルシステムの構築と具体的強靭化方針の提案本研究は、南海トラフ地震などの巨大災害がもたらす国民経済への影響と対策の効果について、定量的な分析を可能にするシミュレーションモデルを構築し、今後実施されるべき我が国のレジリエンス強化施策の必要性や妥当性を検討するための技術的な枠組みを提供することを目的としている。 2018年度に実施したのは、主として、道路ネットワークに関する予測モデルの構築である。高速道路、国道、都道府県道、市町村道のそれぞれについて、道路の特性（耐震化の状況、電線類地中化の状況、道路周辺の土地の利用形態、等）と地震の規模等（震度及び津波浸水）に応じて、道路リンクが破断つまり利用不可になる確率を求めるモデルを構築するため、必要なデータの収集と、数パターンの分析を実施した。東日本大震災時の道路インフラの特性と被害データを用いてモデルを構築するが、被害については、特定の道路リンクが破断したか否かを示す直接的な調査データは存在しないため、震災前後の民間プローブデータから、道路リンクの破断状況を推測することとした。 分析の結果として、入手可能なデータから一定の精度で道路の破断確率を求めるモデルが構築されたと言える。既存の研究においては、交通インフラに関する実務的に利用可能な被害モデルが十分には検討されてきていないため、南海トラフ地震をはじめとする将来発生が予想される震災の被害予測に向けて有意義な前進ができたと言える。 ただし、橋梁の耐震化や電線類の地中化といったレジリエンス強化施策の効果については、効果が存在することは確認されたものの、その規模は想定したよりも小さなものであった。その原因として、東日本大震災時の耐震化や地中化の実施状況に関するデータが、十分に詳細な計測単位では得られなかったことが挙げられる。今後、より精度の高い分析に向けて、新たなデータの利用等を検討する必要がある。
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2016 - 31 Mar. 2019In order to evaluate the effect of public investment for disaster management appropriately, it is necessary to take agglomeration economies into account. In this study, we constructs a new economic geography (NEG) model incorporating a natural disaster risk and examines the interrelationship between industrial agglomeration and vulnerability of a spatial economy. We show that the location pattern emerging as the market equilibrium is characterized by over-agglomeration and is more vulnerable than that of social optimum. We also declare that disaster mitigation investment improves the utilitarian social welfare, but it does not always increase the survival rate of firms at the time of disaster. Furthermore, we identify the wider economic impacts, which are not treated in the conventional cost-benefit analysis, by decomposing the overall effects of transportation investments for disaster prevention.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2018, Principal investigatorIn order to decrease a risk in case of emergency such as traffic congestion due to catastrophic events, to build a double or triple network of highway seems effective. It clearly shows that new manufacturing factory locates in the area where the alternative route to major cities is developed. ”Redundancy Effects” in this study means that shortening of transportation time of the alternative route to major cities promotes manufacturing factory location. The purpose of this study is to estimate this effect by using fixed effect model. As a result of estimation, redundancy effects were observed in some areas. Many of these areas are far from the urban area.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2014 - 31 Mar. 2018We have introduced the commons concept, which has been actively studied in the fields of environmental studies, economics, etc., to practical planning of architecture. And since we have been working as a researcher in Otsuchi Town, Iwate prefecture, based on the collection of memory testimony by model WS which is continuing support activities in Project Otsuchi Media Commons (MLA), we aimed to construct a commons regeneration model in the disaster area. We revised our research method due to the fact that it took time to compile the massive testimony gathered as practical data and of the town changed the policy the reconstruction project and delayed plan. We made a digital archive of model workshops and testimonies made experimentally in other areas and modeled how to utilize them.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Kyoto University, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2017STUDY ON EFFECTS OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR ON REGIONAL ECONOMYAlthough it is important to understand the influence of consumer behavior on regional economy, as far as we know, no empirical research has been conducted in Japan. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the economic impact of consumer’s behavior on regional economy. We investigated two local merchants and four chain stores in Kyoto-city in order to compare the local economic return of consumption. As a result it was shown that if some shopping is done at local merchant, approximately 52% of consumption revenue will return to local economy, however if some shopping is done at chain store, the return rate will become about its half. This result suggests us about a desirable consumer behavior for regional vitalization.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2017, Principal investigatorSpatial economic analysis requires an inter-regional trade data as monetary term like Input-Output table. Although the empirical policy study requires the analysis on subdivided area, however, we only have the Input-Output table on the 9 regional data in Japan. Therefore, this research shows the characteristic comparison between statistical data on inter-regional trade/freight data and inter-enterprise data by using simple statistical methods. As a conclusion, we show the inter-regional freight census data by MLIT and inter-enterprise data by TDB is effective index to subdivide into small region. But inter-regional freight census data is only for the prefectural level, inter-enterprise data can be applied at municipality level although we have to solve some problem to apply the model. Also, we make a model to estimate Gross transport data from Net transport data. It will be help us to estimate some inter-regional trade flow on subdivided are.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2014 - 31 Mar. 2016This study aims to consider the redefinition and a new concept of next-generation infrastructure that becomes the foundation of life and national land. Interdisciplinary exchanges in the Kobe University and network formation of collaborative research in Japan and overseas have been promoted. Environmental vision of the next generation and social strategy that leads to it has been set as a common theme. Toward the research goals for the construction of sustainable environmental design studies, to promote the following four points; (1) new social infrastructure issues that appeared on the earthquake reconstruction, (2) evaluation of smart infrastructure using big data, (3) the next generation fusion research project of the resilient architecture and civil engineering structure, and construction of an international network, (4) visualization of infrastructure development, the research network development was promoted through collaboration with the private sector and the public agencies.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2012 - 31 Mar. 2015, Principal investigatorThe aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between social media information and returning home behavior in disaster. In order to analyze Twitter’s textual data, which is tweeted in the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March, 2011, this study applies text-mining approach. The results of text-mining confirm the trend of collocation’s network among terms after the Earthquake happened, and the distribution of term co-occurrence frequency. On the other hand, using the returning home data sets on 11 March, 2011 collected, this study calculate the differences of estimated population between one point and the former point. Moreover, using the two data sets, this study analyzed the relationship between both using a canonical correlation analysis. Term co-occurrence frequency in Social Media and behavior of returning home is applied to two sets of variables in canonical analysis, and the estimation results demonstrated that these two are significantly interdependent.Competitive research funding
- 日本学術振興会, 二国間交流事業（オランダとのセミナー）, 2015, Principal investigator二国間交流「第五回応用一般均衡分析と交通分析の統合に関する国際セミナー」Competitive research funding
- 日本学術振興会, 二国間交流事業（韓国との共同研究）, 2015, Principal investigator二国間交流「情報・交通社会資本整備による地域開発効果の比較分析」Competitive research funding
- 二国間交流事業（韓国との共同研究）, 2014, Principal investigator二国間交流「情報・交通社会資本整備による地域開発効果の比較分析」Competitive research funding
- 環境経済の政策研究, 2013, Principal investigator地方公共団体における地球温暖化対策実行計画等の実施に伴う環境・経済・社会への影響分析Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, 2009 - 2012Micro- and Macro-analysis of Pro-patent PoliciesWe develop a research framework encompassing microeconomic approaches, such as industrial organization, and macroeconomic approaches, such regional and international trade, to investigate economic impacts of development and uses of new technologies. Our series ofstudies examined microeconomic issues related to research and development, such as a grant-back provision, smart-meters as well as impacts of such kind of technology-related issues from a macroeconomic perspective.
- 環境経済の政策研究, 2012, Principal investigator地方公共団体における地球温暖化対策実行計画等の実施に伴う環境・経済・社会への影響分析Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Tottori University, 2009 - 2011A Study on effective provision of transportation infrastructures by interregional cooperationThis research focuses on the cooperative provision of inter-regional transport infrastructure by multiple local governments. A theoretical model is developed by employing general equilibrium modeling and non-cooperative game theory. With the model, strategic behaviors and therefore their consequent results such as a provision level of infrastructure are investigated. It is especially shown that decision timing and substitution/compliment characteristics of investment function play key roles.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), 2009 - 2011the applications of Rural Area Social Accounting Matrix in consideration of time resourcesThe aim of this research is to construct a base economic data in order to analyze social issues on rural areas. Traditional economic data is not enough to analyze these regions, because of resource on these regions is not only labor and capital but also time and social capitals. So, we proposed Rural Area Social Accounting Matrix in consideration of time resources and its applications. Use this data, we can find somefuture social issues from the numerical simulations.
- 科学研究費補助金／基盤研究(C), 2011Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Tottori University, 2008 - 2010Management and evaluation methodologies for public environmental works in small municipalities encountering opulation decreaseMethodologies of sustainable management for public environmental works in small municipalities suffering population decrease and budget deficit. Measures for them were evaluated from both sides of local government and citizens. nvironmental public works like sewerage are often financial burden of small municipalities. Therefore, measures to manage environmental public works with holistic view of municipal policies were developed. At the same time, their effects on residents' utility and fairness were evaluated.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Nanzan University, 2007 - 2008Construction of an Environmental SAM and policy analysis by using applied general equilibrium model本研究では、特定地域を対象とした詳細な環境SAMの作成手法を検討し、実際に愛知県を対象とした試作表を作成した。作成した環境SAMを用いることによって、詳細な産業部門別で環境負荷の実態が把握可能であり、産業連関表の情報を最大限に取り入れた環境SAMが提示できた。また、これを用いた地域政策の応用一般均衡分析として廃棄物問題を取り上げ、自治体によるごみ袋有料化制度の影響分析を行うためのモデル構築を行った。
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Tottori University, 2005 - 2006Environmental planning and maintenance methodology in small municipalities encountering depopulation and agingJapan is encountering population decrease and aging and has debt of 770 trillion. Local governments are in difficult situation due to the increase in people who need social welfare and budget deficit. Especially it is remarkable in small municipalities. Water supply, domestic waste water treatment and waste treatment are important jobs for a local government. These systems have been planned with the assumption of population increase until now. However we have to change our minds for depopulating age. In this research, new planning methodologies for depopulating age were examined. The overview about situation of small municipalities concerning population decrease and aging were shown and the subjects about planning and maintenance were indicated. Next, various methods to solve problems of environmental facilities due to depopulation and aging were examined. In facility developments, the choice method between concentrated system and diffused system was discussed. In maintenance method, planning about patrolling of diffused facilities and promotion method to use sewerage system were examined. The effects of sewerage system development method on municipality finance and local economy were examined. On the basis of the above practical studies, general methodologies were studied. The importance of satisfaction of each local governmental service from viewpoints of various age people and people's subconscious needs were emphasized. The methodology to consider spillover effect of projects was presented. The GIS technology for environmental control was examined.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Kobe University, 2004 - 2006Toward Sustainable Improvement in Quality of Life : Theoretical and Statistical Analysis on Policy AssessmentsWe conducted both theoretical and empirical analyses of policy assessments focusing on actual performances of economic policies. The analytical methods are economic theory, statistics, econometrics, and experimental economics. We regularly had meetings to check the processes and the results of works in progress, and finally published outputs of the researches. We form two research groups. One is a team to study environment, traffics and policy assessment, the members of which reviewed literatures of Japan and other countries about environmental and traffic problems such as garbage, industrial wastes, air pollutions, natural environment of sightseeing spots, and public transportation facilities. This group examined what kind of analytical methods and evaluation methods are suitable for these problems. Some of them carried out field surveys and hearing about the slow life and the recycling activities in the environmental policies of Italy. In addition, other members conducted cost-benefit analysis on the extension plan of the Osaka monorail, which is called "Saito project," with the choice experiment method. The other group specialized in the research of local public finance and the urban policy. They collected and analyzed data of sustainable growth of economies of remote islands and information disclosure problems of local governments. In particular, they employed questionnaire surveys to those who concern tourism of Amami Oshima Island and those who suffered from the Chuetsu earthquake. Some members also studied a tendency of convergence of income per capita based on data of the metropolitan area of Japan with Markov matrices. In the experimental economic analysis, other members showed that decentralized market mechanisms may not work out for unstable equilibria of perfect competition, or any types of equilibria of monopolistic competition. In the dynamic spatial general equilibrium analysis incorporated economies of scale, other members analyzed the influence of the traffic jam in the city part of the Netherlands from an aspect of the social economy and a living standard aspect, and investigated what influene congestions have on what type of industries.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), National University Corporation Tottori University, 2002 - 2004Developing the tool to provide the bus transportation service by communityIn rural areas, bus service is the main component of the vital life transportation service to more urbanized centers. People living in such areas are concerned with receiving and maintaining enough bus service for much better mobility. However, there is currently not a system in place to allow people living in those areas the service that they require. They do not have the appropriate knowledge of methods to implement this type of local transportation system. Because they lack the resources for such a service, they have not succeeded in implementing such a system in the past. It is difficult for one person to estimate the transportation needs of all people in the region. Even after these needs have been identified, they lack the knowledge to supply the level of service necessary, while considering the costs of implementation. These are the obstacles that need to be overcome, in order to successfully implement the transportation service. This study addresses the issues outlined above, and explores the feasibility and implementation of such a system. Most importantly, this research focuses on helping people living in these regional areas to implement and to maintain this type of system by themselves, while receiving support from the municipal governments. In this project, we developed two such systems, i.e.the "interactive software model" and the "group selection helping system." The convenience of the first system is evaluated based on the increasing level of activity exhibited by the patrons. The second system is a procedure outlining a solution allowing the regional people in implementing the system by themselves. Then, these two systems are improved and various other factors related to the implementation of such a bus service are sorted out. As well, the systems are evaluated from the view point of the supplier based on the possibility of realizing the service that the people need. We also illustrate a framework that consists of key factors of bus service, for easier understanding how the policy/condition changing influences on the system feasibility. From the results of the research, the people of these regions will now be able to achieve such a service by themselves, with a vital role played by the municipalities of these regions.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Tottori University, 2002 - 2004応用一般均衡分析を用いた社会資本整備評価における便益推定誤差に関する研究社会的要請から,社会資本整備の便益評価は,多くのプロジェクトで実施されるようになってきている.また,詳細な効果の帰着先を知る目的で,ミクロ行動理論に基づいた応用一般均衡分析による便益評価手法(帰着便益評価手法)が実施されるようになってきており,従来の需要予測に基づく消費者余剰による便益評価手法(発生便益評価手法)に変わろうとしている.しかし,応用一般均衡分析は,そのモデル構造が複雑なため,特定のパラメータの誤差が,最終的な便益評価にどれほど影響するかが明確でない.そのため,本研究では応用一般均衡モデルにおける誤差の整理とその便益評価に対する影響分析を実施することを目的としている.文献調査などの結果から,応用一般均衡モデルには以下のような3種類の誤差があると考えられる. 1)設定パラメータに含まれる誤差(例えば,代替弾力性パラメータの推定) 2)外性変数に含まれる誤差(例えば,政策変数の推定) 3)基準データセットに含まれる誤差(例えば,産業連関表の集計誤差) 本年度は,上記の誤差のうちで2),3)に関するモデル構築と実証研究を通じた推定誤差の範囲を特定し,最も重要なパラメータの特定化を行っている.その結果は,「社会資本ストック崩壊による経済的被害の空間的把握-空間的応用一般均衡分析による計量厚生分析-」(土木計画学研究・講演集),「47都道府県間産業連関表による震災被害推定のための空間的一般均衡モデル」(応用地域学会年次講演会)にて公表済みである.次年度以降,ある社会資本整備の評価を実施する場合にどのパラメータの精度に注意をすべきか,また,その場合の感度分析の指針を含めたマニュアル的な報告書をまとめる予定である.その結果は,便益評価結果の信頼性尺度とし,あるいは,評価モデルの妥当性を知る上で,大変重要であると考えられる.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Tottori University, 2003 - 2003バスサービスの規制緩和に関する国際共同研究の企画調査わが国の公共交通の歴史に残る"壮大な社会実験"とも言える乗合バス事業の規制緩和(平成14年2月施行)に対して関心を寄せている諸外国の研究者と共同研究を実施するための研究企画を行った.具体的には,共同研究を効率的に進めるための基盤形成を目的とし,以下の3つの点について検討を加えた. 第一は,"規制緩和に伴うバスサービスの変容に関わる情報のとりまとめ方についての概念整理"である.バスサービスの提供実態や影響の発現状況は地域特性や社会的環境と密接な関連を有しているため,費用関数の推定や生産性分析を予備的に行い,押さえておくべきデータ項目を抽出した. 第二は,共通の分析フレームの構築である.路線バス市場における供給側と需要側の行動は相互に影響を及ぼし合っており,規制や補助制度等が両者の行動を部分的に規定しているのだが,前述の地域特性や社会的環境とも密接な関連を有しているため,複雑な様相を見せている.そこで,関連諸要素を「利用者の活動水準曲線」「バス利用に関わる一般化費用曲線」「事業者の運賃設定曲線」等に整理するとともに,これらを相互に関連づけた分析フレームを構築し,個々の変化に対する分析の位置づけが容易に理解できるようにした. 第三は,国際共同研究を行うための研究体制の整備である.共同研究のメンバーとして予定している内外の研究者の関心は,"路線バスの規制緩和がもたらす影響の分析"という点では一致しているが,そのアプローチや着目点は必ずしも同一でない.研究組織を構成する研究者の研究アプローチと対象領域を整理し,作業の協力・分担関係を明らかにすることにより研究の推進体制を構築した. 以上により,政策が依拠する理論的基盤が教えるとおりの変容が生じたのか,それにより期待どおりの政策効果が得られたのか,を検証するための研究基盤を概ね構築しえたものと考えている.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Fuji Tokoha University, 2002 - 2003The Construction of Input-Output Table at Urban Area Level and Computable General Equilibrium Model for Urban AreaIn this study, we developed an estimation method for Input-Output table at urban level and the CGE model for urban area in the context of open economy assumption. We first developed a method in order to construct input-output table at the urban area level using non-survey technique. When input-output tables are constructed, Estimation of interregional trade coefficients is important. In this study, we proposed a method for estimation of interregional trade using simple location quotient. And also, This research constructed a three-region interregional input-output model by dividing the whole country into three regions with the concept of hierarchical structure. In addition, we constructed a computable general equilibrium model in order to evaluate urban policy. Then, based on several case studies, we have shown that it is possible to conduct policy evaluation, using this model.
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 奨励研究(A), 鳥取大学, 2000 - 2001旅客交通整備評価のための空間的一般均衡モデルの開発と応用現在,わが国では,財政赤字の増大などの社会的要請をうけて,社会資本整備評価必要性が叫ばれている.社会資本整備評価のためには定量的な客観性を有する評価手法が必要であるが,そのためには経済理論に基づいた社会資本整備手法の確立が不可欠である.土木計画学の分野では,これら社会的要請に答える形で,社会資本整備評価に応用一般均衡モデルを適応する試みがここ数年の研究課題となってきている.本研究では旅客交通整備評価のための空間的応用一般均衡モデルの開発と同時に,その実証分析に向けた応用の検討を行うことを目的としている. 一般に,空間的応用一般均衡分析による交通整備評価は物流交通整備を対象としているため,旅客交通を明示的に扱うことが不可能である.そのため,本研究では世帯が消費する自由目的の旅客交通行動と企業が消費する業務目的の旅客交通行動を応用一般均衡のフレームで整合的モデルを構築している.さらに,交通需要データ(全国旅客純流動調査)と社会経済データ(地域間産業連関表)によりモデル内の未知パラメータ推定手法を提案することで実証可能としている. 実証研究としては,わが国における整備新幹線計画,リニア中央新幹線計画,さらに,羽田空港発着枠増加などの効果を計測し,地域別の帰着便益を算出している.一方,東京首都圏における震災による交通マヒの社会経済的被害なども算出している. 以上の研究成果は,土木計画学研究発表会,応用地域学会年次大会,WCTR(世界交通会議),RSAI(世界地域学会),災害比較シンポジウムなどを通じで内外の研究者と意見を交わし,評価を受けている.さらに,査読付き論文として,土木計画学研究論文集,Proceedings of 1^
Workshop for "Comparative Study on Urban Earthquake Disaster Managementに登載された. - Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2000 - 2001Development of systems for infrastructure evaluationThis project aimed at building systems for infrastructure evaluation. In the system development, practical methodologies already developed and applied were synthesized and reorganized. In 2000, methodologies are overviewed from the point of economic evaluation and of urban policies, so that the interrelation of methodologies could be made clear. In addition, the database covering Gifu Urban Area was tested for application of the systems. The systems were reorganized to be in multi-level, at the top of which the CGE is assigned and at the bottom of which the hedonic/CVM method is. In 2001, each of the systems was first independently tested and then interactively. We verified that each worked well sufficiently to be used in practice. The database is completed so that each system can link with it, while some parts of it should be still extended.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Nagaoka University of Technology, 1999 - 2001Evaluation of TDM measures by developing microsimulation models for travel behavior and trafficA research on an activity-based travel demand model applied to the "tour concept" by using the neural network (NN) rather than the practical disaggregate logit model. A questionnaire survey was carried out for gathering activity diary data in the region of Niitsu, Niigata. Three different kinds of model, a simultaneous type, and types of sequence without feedback and with feedback, were estimated and their microsimulation models were developed to predict each person's travel. The sequence model with feedback achieved the highest Hitting Ratio among the three types. A next study employed the person-trip survey data for the metropolitan area of Nagaoka, Niigata conducted by the national government in November 1999. The empirical estimation by neural networks revealed that an activity ＆ tour were not independent but closely interrelated among a daily activity pattern. It simulated an individual discretionary travel pattern under a number of conditions assuming the introduction of TDM measures such as flexible work times or staggered work hours. The microsimulation showed its practical capability to predict the impacts of TDM measures on daily travel patterns. A study of traffic microsimulation developed an optimal control system that could compute best signal settings in real time for an isolated intersection by improving the existing adaptive signal control. A heuristic algorithm that searched gaps of platoons and selected the best signal setting among them was developed to speed up a calculating time. A heuristic method extended to two intersections with bus-preemption, and could minimize not only vehicle delay, but also passenger delay by changing parameters. The simulation system was applied to evaluate bus priority measures for HOV lanes and a bridge in Nagaoka. The effects of lane regulation, bus priority signal control, and inflow restriction signal control were evaluated by the system.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Gifu University, 1995 - 1996The Benefit Evaluation of The Flood Control WorksThe past benefit evaluation of the flood control works is nothing but object of reducing damage cost, don't seize change for state probability, that is uncertainty, land use change due to location choice action, and extend effect. In this paper, we constructed Location Equilibrium Model based on multispace general equilibrium theory under uncertainty. And we defined the benefit, expanded the concept of Equivalent Variation, Proposed Non-Contingent EV including the benefits of change for state and location choice probability, as the most rational definition for evaluation. The applicable possibility of Location Equilibrium Model, Benefit Evaluation was shown through a case study.
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 重点領域研究, 筑波大学, 1995 - 1995グリーンGNPの試みに基づくGNP計算の修正本研究では「グリーンGNP=GNP-環境維持費用-環境被害費用」と定義し、GNP計算に修正を加えることとした。環境維持費用については、国・地方公共団体による治山治水対策事業費、農地等保全管理事業費、下水道事業費、環境衛生施設整備事業費、環境保全対策事業費、および民間企業による公害防止設備投資額を計上した。環境被害費用については、大気面と水質面の環境に限定し、大気汚染の被害費用については自動車から排出される5種類の大気汚染物質(一酸化炭素,二酸化炭素,窒素酸化物,炭化水素,浮遊粒子物質)に着目して計測した。ここでは、汚染物質の被害費用の原単位と車種別燃料別自動車1台の汚染物質別排出量を用いて自動車1台の排気ガスによる被害費用を算出し、これに各年の車種別燃料別自動車台数を掛け合わせることによって求めた。水質汚濁の被害費用については、水質改善に対する住民の支払意思額が理想的水質からみた被害額であると考え、それを計測した。ここでは、名古屋市内の2カ所の都市公園において公園利用と水質改善に関する意識調査を実施して、水質改善に対する住民1人の支払意思額を算出した。また各年の支払意思額はBODの環境基準未達成率に比例するものと仮定し、それに各年の総人口を掛け合わせることによって求めた。 以上の方法で1975〜1992年の18年間のグリーンGNPを計算した。1975年では152兆円のGNPが145兆円のグリーンGNPとなり、7兆円の減少(4.6%の減少率)である。1992年では469兆円(GNP)が457兆円(グリーンGNP)となり、12兆円の減少(2.6%の減少率)である。全体の傾向としては、GNPから差し引かれる環境維持費用と環境被害費用の合計はほぼ一定であり、そのためGNPに対する割合は減少している。しかし、自動車の普及に伴って大気汚染の被害費用が着実に増加していること、また1992年以降の環境維持費用に再び増加の兆しがあることなどから、近い将来にグリーンGNPが減少傾向に転じる可能性もある。
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C), Gifu University, 1994 - 1995The air diamond estimation method that considered large-scale hub airport characteristic and route setting strategy of airlineWe enforced it about two major studies in this studies. The first is studies about the international airport traveler demand model that used balance general idea of route supply action of airport company and route selection action of passenger. In aviation traveler market, airport company takes supply action of route. This becomes supply action for airport administration subject and becomes demand action for a tourist. We modeled these relation using a general idea of equilibrium analysis. And, as example studies, I did demand analysis of international airline travel. As a result I showed that disperse of international airline traveler that concentrated on Narita Airport was possible currently. The second is access traffic analysis to an airport. In this studies, We showed transportation / course selection action of international and domestic traveler to Nagoya Airport with discrete choice model using Ministry of Transport airport traveler action investigation data on the basis of individual questionnaire investigation. We applied this model in the central part new international airport, and evaluated a substitute plan furthermore.
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 重点領域研究, 岐阜大学, 1994 - 1994グリーンGNPの計測手法に関する研究本研究では、次の方法でグリーンGNPを計算することとした。 (グリーンGNP)=(GNP)-(環境水準の維持費用)-(環境悪化の被害費用) このうち、右辺第2項については、国による公害対策・海岸保全の事業への投資額、公共企業による下水道等の事業への投資額、および民間企業による産業公害防止設備への投資額を計上した。右辺第3項については、その計測手法を平成5年度研究成果として報告しており、それを用いて環境悪化(水質汚濁・大気汚染・騒音)の被害費用の計測を試みた。具体的には、アンケート調査を実施して公園利用と環境水準の関係を求め、環境悪化に伴う公園利用の減少から住民の損失額を計算しようとしたが、大気汚染と騒音については異常と思われるような過大評価が予備調査の段階で予想されたので、水質汚濁についての調査のみに終わった。過大評価の主な理由は、環境質の代理市場として公園利用の市場のみに着目することが妥当でなかったということであり、この問題の解決が今後の課題として残される。そこで、当面、この手法による計測を諦め、大気汚染の被害費用のみについて6種類の汚染物質(一酸化炭素、二酸化炭素、窒素酸化物、硫黄酸化物、炭化水素、浮遊粒子物質)の社会的費用の原単位を用いて計測することとした。 この方法で1978〜1990年の13年間のグリーンGNPを試算した。1978年では約209兆円のGNPが約202兆円のグリーンGNPとなり、約7兆円の減少(3.3%の減少率)となった。また、1990年では約435兆円(GNP)が約424兆円(クリーンGNP)となり、約11兆円の減少(2.5%の減少率)となった。したがって、GNPから差し引かれる環境維持費用と環境被害費用は年々増加しているが、その伸びはGNPの伸びに比べて幾分緩やかであるといえる。