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OTAZAWA ToshimoriGraduate School of Engineering / Department of Civil EngineeringProfessor
Research activity information
■ Award- May 2018 公益社団法人・土木学会, 平成29年度 土木学会論文賞, 社会ネットワークを通じた相互作用と混雑を考慮した最適交通料金政策の進化的遂行Official journal
- Nov. 2016 土木学会土木計画学研究委員会, 土木計画学研究委員会優秀論文賞, 社会ネットワークを通じた相互作用と混雑を考慮した最適交通料金政策の進化的遂行Japan society
- Lead, Mar. 2025, 高速道路と自動車, 68(3) (3), 15 - 21, Japanese因果効果の異質性を考慮した高速道路インターチェンジの整備効果の推定[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Elsevier BV, Jan. 2025, Economic Analysis and Policy, 85, 1238 - 1257, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Lead, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Jan. 2025, Japanese Journal of JSCE, 81(1) (1), 24-00042 - n/a, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Lead, The City Planning Institute of Japan, Oct. 2024, Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, 59(2) (2), 205 - 214, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Corresponding, Oct. 2024, Proceedings of the Conference of Japan Society of Traffic Engineers, 44, 497 - 502, Japanese[Refereed]Symposium
- This study aims to identify the determinants of population mobility. A novel method using partial least squares regression is proposed, demonstrating that it can avoid the problems of conventional methods such as multicollinearity. The estimation results reveal that the main patterns of population migration include (1) migration to spatially proximate areas, (2) migration seeking higher urban services, (3) migration to areas with more universities, and (4) migration to older urban areas with higher density. Furthermore, estimates for the young generation aged 20-24 show that, in addition to factors common to all generations, university entrance and graduation have significant impacts on population mobility in this generation. These findings can be helpful for local governments to make evidence-based urban policies.The City Planning Institute of Japan, Oct. 2022, Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, 57(3) (3), 1140 - 1147, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- This study examines the causal impact of highways on the Japanese economy, with a focus on quantifying the impact on the industrial sector. The highway network has expanded remarkably in Japan after the Second World War. The understanding of the effect of the highway investments so far is really helpful for planning the project of the highway construction in the future. Following Donaldson and Hornbeck (2016), we formulate the general equilibrium trade model and theoretically derive the relationship between “market access” and land value. We estimate the impact of market access and agglomeration economies on land values, using the data about land values in 222 Urban Employment Area (UEA). To deal with the identification issues caused by reverse causality or omitted variables, we rely on an instrumental variable (IV) approach. The results show that the land values are affected strongly by market access and population density.Lead, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2022, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 77(5) (5), I_95 - I_105, JapaneseScientific journal
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2021, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 76(5) (5), I_507 - I_514, Japanese
Most of domestic freight are carried by cars, where roads play vital roles. In assessing transportation facilities such as roads, values of time is the significant index, where time is evaluated in terms of money. The value of freight travel time savings (VFTTS) have been defined and estimated based on opportunity costs of factors or willingness-to-pay for reducing transportation time. However, these are microscopic approaches which deal with each instance. Moreover, conventional methods cannot analyze the effects of specific conditions on VFTTS, such as disruptions of the supply chains right after natural disasters. A new methodology is required to understand roles of roads and plan them properly. In this study, it is hypothesized that freight transportations affect society and the economy through logistics and supply chains. VFTTS is newly defined by using the increment of economic welfare and the decrement of total freight transportation time caused by road improvements. To calculate these variables, a standard spatial computable general equilibrium model which assumes perfect competition is used. Moreover, parameters are set exogenously to reproduce the disaster on the model, which enables us to measure VFTTS right after natural disasters. These parameters in case of emergency had been estimated in a previous study to reproduce the damage of the Great East Japan Earthquake. As the results of simulation, it has been clarified that previous studies ignored the ripple effects and underestimated VFTTS. Moreover, it has demonstrated that VFTTS would rise right after natural disasters.
[Refereed] - 2021, 土木学会論文集 D3(土木計画学)(Web), 77(2) (2)THE IMPACT OF HIGHWAYS ON REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT AND ESTABLISHMENTS’ LOCATION: EVIDENCE FROM JAPAN[Refereed]
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Apr. 2020, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 75(6) (6), I_57 - I_68, Japanese
It is required that the opinion expressed to the social capital maintenance plan such as public transportation service is based on "public judgment", but for that purpose sufficient and accurate regarding the living situation of the target area residents The information needs to be presented. The authors propose a method (decentralized information provision method) that "divides the information of all residents of the area into several people and distributes it to opinion expressers", but empirically confirm the usefulness of the method It was not done. Therefore, in this research, using this method, we presented information on the movement environment of local residents and plan alternatives, conducted a questionnaire survey asking WTP for plans, and conducted an empirical analysis. Under the set conditions, it is clear that WTP can be estimated with an error accuracy of 3 to 7%, and it is clear that this method is useful in the range that allows the error.
[Refereed] - Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Apr. 2020, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 75(6) (6), I_69 - I_82, Japanese
Residents' opinion to the infrastructure development such as local public transport service should be expressed based on 'public judgment''. For that purpose, sufficient and accurate information regarding the level of quality-of-life of the residents living in the subject area needs to be provided. The authors proposed a method (decomposition survey method) that ''divides a set of information of all residents of the area into several sub-sets and distributes them to opinion expressers''. However, empirical confirmation of its usefulness has not been done. The purpose of this study is to conduct an empirical analysis of this method. Through a questionnaire survey with information provision on the mobility of residents and alternative plans to improve it, we collect WTP data for each alternative plans and analyze it. The result shows that the range of estimation error is around 3 to 7%, that supports the usefulness of this method for practical use within a certain extent.
[Refereed] - 2020, Transportation Research Procedia, 48, 1296 - 1305[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- Improvement of ex-post evaluation is one of the important subjects for establishing a management cycle of infrastructure investment. The assessment requires to grasp causal effects of infrastructure projects based on statistical evidence, neither on a episode nor on just data. In order to properly evaluate effects brought about by infrastructure development, simple before-after comparisons are not enough, which are commonly used methodology in practice. In this paper, we outline statistical methods of causal inference that has become widely used in various research fields recently, and review the empirical literature on the effects of transportation infrastructures improvements on economic development. In addition, we discuss issues for application to transportation infrastructure development evaluation and perspectives for further research.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2019, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 75(5) (5), I_1 - I_15, Japanese[Refereed][Invited]Scientific journal
- 2019, 都市計画報告集(CD-ROM), (17) (17), 355‐359, Japaneseコミュニティの空間構造特性と住民の思考および行動様式の関係;「路地」推定ロジックの構築と検証の試み[Refereed]
- Once a massive disaster hits a regional industrial cluster, firms in the area suffer from physical damages and the in uence of the catastrophe may spread over the whole economy. Recent experiences in Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake in 2004, the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 and Kumamoto Earthquake in 2016 have impressed us with the importance of disaster prevention and mitigation again. Since 2014, the government of Japan aims to improve national resilience and plans to strengthen infrastructures such as main roads and railways. Investment for improving earthquake-resistance of transportation facilities and/or redundancy of transportation networks is effective in mitigating physical and economic damages at the time of disaster, while it also affect industrial agglomeration patterns in the long-run. In order to evaluate the effect of public investment for disaster management appropriately, it is necessary to take agglomeration economies into account. In this paper, we construct a Footloose Entrepreneur Vertical Linkage (FEVL) Model incorporating a disaster risk and examine long-run effects of transportation investment for disaster risk reduction. Furthermore, we identify the wider economic impacts, which are not treated in the conventional cost-benefit analysis, by decomposing the overall effects of transportation investments for disaster.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2018, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 74(5) (5), I_613 - I_622, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2018, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 74(5) (5), I_483 - I_491Scientific journal
- 2018, Edward Elgar Publishing, 205 - 228, EnglishSynergy Effects of Face-to-face Interactions and Urban Spatial Structure,Tranceportation,Knowledge and Space in Urban and Regional EconomicsScientific journal
- 2018, RIEI Discussion Paper Series, 18(E) (E), 054, EnglishInter-firm Transaction Networks and Location in a CityScientific journal
- Social interactions among economic agents that underlie the formation of cities are important for economic performance. There exist communication externalities in face-to-face interactions among agents. In addition, face-to-face contacts include travel behaviours so that they are inevitably accompanied by traffic congestions. Interaction choices depend not only on physical distance but also on social distance among agents, which is often measured using social networks. We consider the problem of implementing optimal levels of interactions. The planner would like to design a toll scheme under which an social optimum is achieved in the long-run without knowledge of the structure of social networks. In this paper, a second-best toll scheme is proposed in which the planner can lead an economy to an optimum by internalizing the externalities evaluated at current traffic in each period.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2016, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 72(5) (5), I_373 - I_382, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- This paper constructs a new economic geography (NEG) model incorporating a natural disaster risk and examines the interrelationship between industrial agglomeration and vulnerability of a spatial economy. We shows that the location pattern emerging as the market equilibrium is characterized by over-agglomeration and is more vulnerable than that of social optimum. By analyzing the regional spillover effects of disaster mitigation investment for inter-regional and intra-regional transportation, this paper declares that disaster mitigation investment improves the utilitarian social welfare, but it does not always increase the survival rate of firms at the time of disaster.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2016, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 72(1) (1), 99 - 112, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Interactions between individual agents are fundamental to our society. Local interactions generate external effects such as knowledge spillovers and synergies. From the spatial aspect, face-to-face contacts are regarded as a crucial factor of the existence and the structures of cities. In this paper, we propose a social interaction model into which two kinds of strategic complementarity intrinsic to face-to-face contacts are incorporated, and examine those effects on urban spatial structure. Furthermore, we reveal that a decrease of transportation cost may lead to locational dispersion and decline the level of social interaction in a city.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2015, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 71(5) (5), I_129 - I_141, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 土木学会, Jan. 2014, 土木学会論文集B1(水工学), 70(4) (4), 1387 - 1392, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Brownfields are defined as abandoned, idled or under-used industrial and commercial sites where expansion or redevelopment is compiled by real or perceived soil contamination. Brownfields are now commonly seen in many countries and appear as a non-negligible problem also in Japan. This paper develops a matching model in land market in order to examine a mechanism of brownfields problem. Change of land types, property value and transaction structure of land are incorporated. We declare contaminated lands of low profitability or with high expense on countermeasures tend to be under-used. Furthermore, we examine the effectiveness of the present policy and discuss alternatives towards brownfield problem.The City Planning Institute of Japan, 2014, Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, 49(3) (3), 615 - 620, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Social Networks, Geography and Travel Demand: A Theoretical Modeling ApproachSocial networks affect activity-travel behavior. People and firms make trips in order to have the face-to-face communications with friends and business partners with whom they have social links. Locations in a geographical space also affect activity-travel behavior. Physical proximity enhances joint activities of agents and increase frequency of traveling each other. In this paWorld Conference on Transportation Research Society, Jul. 2013, Selected Proceedings of the 13th World Conference on Transportation Research Society, 3150, English[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 2013, Proceedings of the 16th Uddevalla Symposium, EnglishSocial Networks and Urban Spatial StructureInternational conference proceedings
- In this paper we propose a theoretical framework that incorporates both social and transportation networks into an equilibrium model of social interactions in order to examine how the level and the spatial pattern of communication between agents depend on both networks. By analyzing the model, we obtain the Nash equilibrium communication demand which is achieved as a result of the utility-maximizing behavior of the agents and analyze the relationship between topology of social networks and the equilibrium level of social interactions by a simple numerical example. Furthermore, we declare that the market equilibrium is not efficient because of the positive externality of social interactions and examine the value of the subsidy that could support the first-best allocation as an equilibrium.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2013, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 69(4) (4), 300 - 314, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Dec. 2012, JOURNAL OF HOUSING ECONOMICS, 21(4) (4), 283 - 295, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In this paper, we study a perfect foresight dynamics in the Core-Periphery(CP) model with taste heterogeneity of agents, that has multiple equilibria. We introduce stochastic fluctuations into the model and describe the state of the model by a Markov process. By solving the master equation and the value function, we show that equilibrium agglomeration patterns can be obtained as probability distributions around the stationary states of the mean dynamics and that this provides a basis for equilibrium selection in CP models.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2010, INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW, 27(0) (0), 121 - 129, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Many developed countries are undergoing decreases in population. The change in population is a key factor to determine the spatial residential pattern. For the case of increasing population, Fujita1), Wheaton2) and others examine the change in the spatial residential pattern, but no previous papers take account of decreasing population. This paper explores the change in the spatial residential pattern in a monocentric city according to the change in the population. Specifically, the paper examines when, where, and how the land is developed, renewed and returned to agricultural land. Conclusively, the paper shows several developing patterns, and clarifies which economic condition brings about such patterns.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2010, Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu D, 66(2) (2), 279 - 289, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Jun. 2008, JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS, 14(2) (2), 150 - 158, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In this paper, an asset management methodology of highway facilities, which are characterized by the multiple components of function- and structure-parts, is presented. The states of function-parts are described by the 0-1 variables designating whether the respective part is active or inactive, while those of the structure-parts are represented by the multiple rating index. In managing the multi-component facilities, the repair and rehabilitation policies of the structure parts as well as the synchronizing policies of the replace timing of functional- and structure-parts should be simultaneously investigated. In this paper the optimal synchronizing model is formulated to investigate the optimal repair and synchronizing repair policies of the respective parts and the optimal inspection and repair timing of the systems as a whole. The model presented in the paper is applied to the asset management of the anti-fire facilities on the expressways.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2008, Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu F, 64(2) (2), 200 - 217, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Populations in most developed countries, including Japan, are expected to decrease rapidly, and the rate of elderly people is increasing simultaneously. These population dynamics will affect urban land structures. This paper shows how the dynamic trends in populations affect the urban structure, using a OLG model with two zones. The model has young and old generations in a closed city. This paper presents a description of how young and old generations reside in the two zones, and how such residential pattern changes according to the population dynamics. The dynamic paths of the welfare of young and old residents are discussed.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2007, Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu D, 63(2) (2), 242 - 254, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- We propose a novel long-term migration dynamics that can overcome the equilibrium indeterminacy of Core-Periphery (CP) model a la Krugman (The Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (1991) 651-667). This goal is achieved by introducing uncertainty of economic environment into CP model with Perfect foresight migration dynamics. We show that an equilibrium path of migration dynamics can be uniquely determined in accordance with each stochastic sample path. We also reveal some properties of long-run outcomes.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2007, Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshuu D, 63(4) (4), 567 - 578, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In this paper, we propose a Dynamic Social Optimal (DSO) migration model under economic uncertainty. The proposed migration model attempts to maximize expected net present value of the sum of consumer utility by controlling amount of migration flow. We show that the optimal migration strategy takes the form of impulse control that depends on population and transportation cost. Comparing the equilibrium migration flow with the optimal one, we find that the direction of equilibrium migration flow is opposite to the direction of optimal one for medium transportation cost.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2007, INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW, 35(25) (25), 245 - 254, Japanese[Refereed]
- We propose a novel long-term migration dynamics that can overcome the equilibrium indeterminacy of Core-Periphery (CP) model a la Krugman [1991d] This goal is achieved by introducing uncertainty of economic environment into CP model with forward-looking migration dynamics. We first disclose that the equilibrium condition of migration dynamics can be represented as a NCP (Nonlinear Complementarity Problem) and then develop an efficient solution algorithm for the problem. We demonstrate from a numerical experience that an equilibrium path of migration dynamics can be uniquely determined in accordance with each stochastic sample path.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2006, INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW, 34(24) (24), 197 - 206, Japanese[Refereed]
- The pre-and re-evaluation models presented by the authors are theoretical ones and limited to be applied in practice. In this paper, a system methodology of designing simple evaluation schemes for public projects, which are tractable and consistent with theoretical models, is presented, whereby two major risk factors, benefits risk and project delay risk, are explicitly considered in order to incorporate the risk characteristics of public projects into evaluation. The paper is concluded by illustrating numerical examples to demonstrate the availability of the methodology.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2005, INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW, Vol.22, No. 1, pp.65-76(22) (22), 65 - 76, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- ROAD PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING SYSTEM APPLICATIONIn this paper, a Pavement Management Accounting System application (in brief, PMAS application) is presented to control the life cycle costs of road pavement. The aim of the PMAS application is to provide the decision makers with the planning information regarding repair strategies and the accounting information on the asset values for the efficient asset management of road pavement. By comparing alternative accounting schemes, the authors conclude that the maintenance accounting is the best accounting scheme for the efficient asset management of road pavement. The PMAS for the asset management is constructed by applying the maintenance accounting scheme. The validity of the PMAS presented in this paper is investigated through case studies conducted for Mie Prefecture in Japan.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2005, JOURNAL OF APPLIED COMPUTING IN CIVIL ENGINEERING, 14(0) (0), 259 - 268, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2005, INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON SYSTEMS, MAN AND CYBERNETICS, VOL 1-4, PROCEEDINGS, pp.634-639, 634 - 639, EnglishOptimal timing strategy for project evaluation and implementation[Refereed]International conference proceedings
- 土木学会, Oct. 2004, Proceedings of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, (772) (772), 169 - 184, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In this paper, a pre- and re-evaluation model with reference to evaluation costs is formulated to valuate the economic values of projets. Two types of option values, i. e., stopping options and timing options, are explicitly modeled by use of real option theory. The evaluation methodology is presented to determine the optimal timing of implementing new projects and that of scrapping existing projects. The optimal conditions of the model are given by Fredholm integral equations of type II. The solution algorithm to find out the optimal solution is also presented. The paper concludes by illustrating numerical examples to explain the properties of the pre- and re-evaluation systems presented in this paper.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Jan. 2004, Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu, (751) (751), 97 - 110, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- Road Pavement Management Accounting System ApplicationIn this paper, a Pavement Management Accounting System application (in brief, PMAS application) is presented to control the life cycle costs of road pavement. The aim of the PMAS application is to provide the decision makers with the planning information regarding repair strategies and the accounting information on the asset values for the efficient asset management of road pavement. By comparing alternative accounting schemes, the authors conclude that the maintenance accounting is the best accounting scheme for the efficient asset management of road pavement. The PMAS for the asset management is constructed by applying the maintenance accounting scheme. The validity of the PMAS presented in this paper is investigated through case studies conducted for Mie Prefecture in Japan.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2004, JOURNAL OF APPLIED COMPUTING IN CIVIL ENGINEERING, 13(0) (0), 125 - 134, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- In this paper, a pre-and re-evaluation model, in which the benefits risk and the project delay risk are simultaneously incorporated, is formulated to evaluate the efficiency of delayed projects at regular intervals. The model provides decision makers with information on the optimal decisions of whether the delayed projects should be continued or scrapped at each re-evaluation timing in infinite time horizon. The model is extended to discuss the benefits derived from reserving decisions at the next re-evaluation timing. This paper illustrates numerical examples to analyze how the evaluation results are controlled by the project characteristics.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2004, INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING REVIEW, Vol.21, No.1, pp.63-74(21) (21), 63 - 74, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- This paper investigates an economic methodology for project evaluation, which explicitly incorporates evaluation costs and the option value of flexibility in decisions. The traditional cost-benefit analysis is fundamentally based upon a now-or-never principle, and fails to evaluate the option values derived by reserving decisions to wait for more concrete information. In this paper, the real option model is formulated to determine the optimal evaluation and implementation timing of the project. The optimal solutions of the model can be obtained by solving the integral equation models. The solution algorithm and numerical examples are also presented.The City Planning Institute of Japan, Oct. 2003, Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, 38(3) (3), 169 - 174, Japanese[Refereed]
- The City Planning Institute of Japan, 2003, Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, 38, 29 - 29Scientific journal
- In this paper, an evaluation methodology of projects is presented, which explicitly incorporates interactions bewteen preevaluation and reevaluation. The benefits of reevaluation is to reduce the irrevesibility issues caused by the projects. The benefits of revising the foregoing decision making given the additional information which can be obtained as time goes by can be formulated as two types of real options: exiting options and timing options. The real option theory provides the basic scheme to integrate the evaluation results obtained in deferent points in time.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2003, Doboku Gakkai Ronbunshu, 2003(737) (737), 189 - 202, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- PROJECT EVALUATION WITH RISKS OF PROJECT DELAYIn this paper, an economic evaluation methodology of projects is presented, which explicitly incorporates economic loss of project delay. In many projects, the implementation timing is typically regulated by uncontrollable social and political factors. In our model, the political risks are characterized by the probabilities of project delay. The real option model is formulatedJapan Society of Civil Engineers, Committee on Construction Management, 2003, 建設マネジメント研究論文集, 10 (Web), 119 - 128, Japanese[Refereed]
- In this paper, a methodology to investigate the risk and profit sharing schemes of oversea construction works is presented. In oversea projects, many stakeholders who may have different contract practices or sense of values are involved, thus making it a challenging task to arrange an efficient risk and profit sharing structure among stakeholders. Cash flows in oversea projects are generally characterized by various risks. The contract schemes for loan and liabilities regulate risk sharing among the projects' stakeholders. In order to investigate the profitability structure, the project values and profit accruable to project companies must be evaluated against market evaluation of project risks. In this paper, a unified framework that applies financial engineering methods is presented to compare the risk and profit sharing structure among different project schemes. The methodology presented is then applied to a project implemented in A-country.Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2002, Journal of Construction Management, JSCE, Vol 9, pp. 141-150(9) (9), 141 - 150, Japanese[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 日本都市計画学会, Oct. 2001, Papers on city planning, 36, 937 - 942, JapanesePublic Guaranty-of-Liabilities and Financial Feasibility of PFI Projects[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 日本都市計画学会, Oct. 2001, Papers on city planning, 36, 925 - 930, JapaneseEvaluating Economic Loss caused by Project Delay[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2001, Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 3, 1783 - 1788, English[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 2001, Advances in River Engineering, 第7巻, pp. 417-422, JapaneseSunk Cost and Economic Evaluation of Flood Mitigation: Real Option Approach[Refereed]Scientific journal
- 東京 : 交通工学研究会 ; [1966]-, Jan. 2025, 交通工学 = Traffic engineering / 交通工学研究会 編, 60(1) (1), 66 - 73, Japanese交通工学のための統計的因果推論入門(第1回)交通工学・計画への適用に向けた統計的因果推論の手法解説—Introduction to Statistical Casual Inference for Traffic Engineering(1)A Guide to Statistical Causal Inference for Traffic Engineering and Planning
- 2024, 日本不動産学会誌, 38(2) (2), JapaneseHeterogeneous Causal Impacts of Highway on Local Employment Growth[Invited]Introduction scientific journal
- 2024, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 69VERIFICATION OF INDUCED TRAFFIC ON HIGH-STANDARD HIGHWAYS
- 2024, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 69高速道路IC整備が周辺地価に及ぼす影響の空間範囲に関する分析
- 2023, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 67ANALYSIS OF DISASTER INSURANCE MODELS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT EXTERNALITY IN DISASTER PREVENTION INVESTMENT
- 2023, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 68サブスクリプション型MaaSの経済厚生分析
- 2023, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 68Evaluation and verification of site selection plans based on analysis of population movement factors within an urban area
- 2023, 関西土木工学交流発表会概要集(Web), 2023道路混雑を考慮したMaaSのプライシングとその厚生分析
- 2023, 関西土木工学交流発表会概要集(Web), 2023因果効果の異質性を考慮した高速道路インターチェンジの整備効果の推定
- 2022, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 66交通サブスクリプションの経済厚生分析
- 2022, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 66HETEROGENEOUS IMPACTS OF HIGHWAY NETWORK IMPROVEMENT
- 2020, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 61, 52 - 3鉄道の相互直通運転が沿線地価に及ぼす影響の分析
- 2020, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 61A NEW METHODOLOGY OF MEASURING THE VALUE OF FREIGHT TRAVEL TIME SAVINGS
- 2020, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(Web), 2020公共的判断に基づく意見形成と地域社会の総意に関する分権的調査手法の提案
- 2020, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 62, 21 - 05Casual Effect Estimation of Regional High-Standard Highways Improvement Using the Data of Companies
- 2019, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 59公共的判断に基づく地域住民の総意形成のための分権的調査手法に関する実証分析
- 2019, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 59抽出方法が分権的調査手法によって得られる意見集約結果に及ぼす影響
- 2019, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2019偏りのない情報に基づく総意形成のための情報収集・提供手法に関する一考察
- 2019, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2019傾向スコアマッチング・差の差分法による高速道路IC整備効果の計測
- 2019, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2019高速道路へのアクセス向上がもたらすストック効果の計測-操作変数アプローチ
- Corresponding, 2019, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 59, No.130傾向スコアマッチング・差の差分法を用いた高速道路整備による雇用促進効果の推定
- 2019, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 60, No.23-09密集市街地の路地が街路のネットワーク特性に与える影響
- Corresponding, 2019, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 60, No.02-05高速道路へのアクセス向上がもたらすストック効果の計測-操作変数アプローチ-
- 日本都市計画学会, 2019, 都市計画, 68(337) (337), 38 - 41, JapaneseCompound Disasters and Urban Vulnerability to Natural Hazards
- (一社)日本社会精神医学会, 2019, 日本社会精神医学会雑誌, 38th(3) (3), 298 - 298, Japaneseコミュニティの空間構造特性と住民の援助希求行動との関係 自殺希少地域X町の「路地」に焦点を当てて
- 2018, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2018道路インフラ整備が製造業事業所の生産性に及ぼす影響に関する差の差分析
- 2018, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2018高速道路へのアクセスが地域の雇用や生産性に及ぼす因果効果の推定
- 2018, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 58高速道路へのアクセスが地域の雇用及び生産性に及ぼす因果効果の推定
- 2018, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 58Difference-In-Difference Analysis of the Impacts of Road Infrastructure Improvement on Location and Employment of Manufacturing Establishment
- 神戸都市問題研究所 ; 1975-, 2018, 季刊都市政策, (170) (170), 14 - 24, Japanese居住都市や日常生活圏の魅力向上に向けた方策と展望
- 2017, 第56回土木計画学研究発表会・講演集, 56集積の経済性を考慮した交通基盤整備の影響分析及び便益計測に向けた検討
- 2017, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2017河道の樹林化の経済価値:河川環境と治水安全性に対する住民選好のコンジョイント分析
- 2017, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2017災害リスクと集積の経済性を考慮した交通基盤整備の影響分析及び便益計測に向けた検討
- 2017, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2017偏りのない事実認識の共有手法に関する実証分析
- 2017, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 55企業間取引ネットワークが都市空間構造に与える影響に関する実証分析
- 2017, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 56企業間取引ネットワークが産業集積に与える影響に関する実証分析
- 2017, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 56認知可能な情報量を考慮した偏りのない事実認識の共有手法
- 2017, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 56Cost-Benefit Analysis of Transportation Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction in an Agglomeration Economies
- 芝浦工業大学連携推進部, 2017, 芝浦工業大学特別教育・研究報告集(CD-ROM), 2016, 165 - 168, Japanese河川の樹林化問題における環境価値評価の可視化理論
- 2016, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2016社会的ネットワークと都市の空間構造:ポテンシャルゲーム・アプローチ
- 2016, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 53コミュニケーションと政策の実現可能性~社会ネットワークの観点から
- 2016, 芝浦工業大学特別教育・研究報告集(CD-ROM), 2015河川の樹林化問題における環境価値評価の可視化理論
- 2016, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 53路面表示の配列操作が先頭車ドライバーの速度認識と後続車の速度変化に及ぼす影響
- 2016, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 54地域公共交通計画における偏りのない事実認識の共有手法
- 神戸都市問題研究所 ; 1975-, 2016, 季刊都市政策, (165) (165), 93 - 97, Japanese神戸市における人口増減の要因分析:「若者に選ばれるまち」の実現に向けて
- 2015, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2015単一中心都市における住宅地の成長と衰退-空間的立地パターンに着目して-
- 2015, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 52産業の過剰集積がもたらす災害脆弱性と交通インフラの減災施策
- 2015, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 52社会ネットワークに基づくコミュニケーション行動と政策分析
- 芝浦工業大学連携推進部, 2015, 芝浦工業大学特別教育・研究報告集(CD-ROM), 2014, 59 - 63, Japanese樹林化河道の類型化による河川植生管理戦略
- 2014, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2014土地市場におけるマッチングを考慮したブラウンフィールド発生構造のゲーム論的分析
- 2014, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2014対面交流がもたらす相乗的作用が都市の空間構造に及ぼす影響に関する理論分析
- 2014, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 50対面コミュニケーションの相乗効果と都市の空間構造
- 2014, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 49都市間交通ネットワークにおける事業者間の競合と協力が交通利便性にもたらす影響
- 2013, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2013都市災害時におけるソーシャルメディアを通じた社会的学習の収束過程に関する研究
- 2013, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2013企業間ネットワークに着目した都市空間構造モデルの分析
- 2013, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2013都市の空間構造が社会的ネットワーク形成及びコミュニケーション行動に与える影響の分析
- 2013, 土木学会年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 68th樹林化問題における生態環境・治水安全に関する統合的評価手法の試論
- 2013, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 48都市システムの空間構造と社会的ネットワーク形成
- 2013, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 48都市災害時における交通情報の信頼性と帰宅意思決定
- 2013, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 48企業間ネットワークに着目したオフィス企業の立地パターンに関する分析
- 2012, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2012情報のノイズに着目した都市災害時の帰宅時刻選択モデル
- 2012, 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会講演概要集(CD-ROM), 2012社会的ネットワークに基づく交通・コミュニケーション行動の理論モデル分析
- 2012, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 45社会的ネットワークに基づく交通需要の理論モデル分析
- 2012, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 45情報のノイズに着目した都市災害時の帰宅時刻選択モデル
- 2012, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 46都市災害時における帰宅交通需要の時間分散政策
- 2012, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 46社会的ネットワーク理論に基づく空間相互作用モデル
- 2011, 日交研シリーズA(Web), 526 (CD-ROM)Efficient Toll Level of Congested Expressway Networks Taking into Accounts the Marginal Cost of Toll and Fuel Tax
- 2011, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 43利他的世代重複経済における社会基盤整備と世代間外部性
- 2010, 日交研シリーズA(Web), 506 (CD-ROM)Efficiency of Length of Expressways and Ordinary Roads and Efficiency of Toll level and Road Earmarked Tax Level
- 2010, 地下水・土壌汚染とその防止対策に関する研究集会講演集(CD-ROM), 16thブラウンフィールドの発生メカニズムと抑制政策
- 2010, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 42社会的ネットワークにおける協調形成に関するゲーム理論分析:ネットワーク・トポロジーに着目して
- 2010, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 42土壌汚染による塩漬け土地問題の発生メカニズムと抑制政策
- 2009, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 40都市集積・分散ダイナミクスと確率的均衡
- 2009, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 40単一中心都市における住宅地の開発と建て替えおよび撤退の動学的空間パターン
- 15 Sep. 2008, 土木学会誌, 93(9) (9), 30, Japanese特集を終えて…
- 15 Sep. 2008, 土木学会誌, 93(9) (9), 15, Japanese企画趣旨
- 2008, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 37人口減少下の単一中心都市における住宅地の開発と撤退の空間的パターン
- 2008, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 37社会的ネットワークのゲーム論的モデルとその応用可能性
- 2008, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 37新経済成長モデルを用いたインフラ・マネジメントのマクロ経済学的考察
- 2007, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 36貿易自由化が交通インフラ整備に与える影響に関する分析
- In this paper, an asset management methodology of highway facilities, which are characterized by the multiple components of function- and structure-parts, is presented. The states of function-parts are described by the 0-1 variables designating whether the respective part is active or inactive, while those of the structure-parts are represented by the multiple rating index. In managing the multi-component facilities, the repair and rehabilitation policies of the structure parts as well as the synchronizing policies of the replace timing of functional- and structure-parts should be simultaneously investigated. In this paper the optimal synchronizing model is formulated to investigate the optimal repair and synchronizing repair policies of the respective parts and the optimal inspection and repair timing of the systems as a whole. The model presented in the paper is applied to the asset management of the anti-fire facilities on the expressways.The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2007, 日本機械学会年次大会講演論文集, 2007(Vol.2) (Vol.2), 257 - 258, Japanese[Refereed]
- 2006, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 34災害避難時における群集行動形成メカニズムのモデル化とその厚生分析
- 2006, 土木計画学研究・講演集(CD-ROM), 33不完備情報下における航空運賃変更オプション行使ゲーム
- 2002, 建設マネジメント問題に関する研究発表 討論会講演集, 20, 147 - 150遅延リスクとプロジェクト評価
- 2001, 土木学会建設マネジメント発表会講演概要集, 175 - 178海外プロジェクトにおけるリスク分担と利潤構造
- Joint work, 電気書院, Oct. 2012, Japanese, ISBN: 9784485300633確率統計学A to ZTextbook
- Joint work, Thomas Telford, 2009, EnglishOptimal Contract for PPP Project Under UncertaintyUncertainty: Hidden action and Hidden Information CaseScholarly book
- 技報堂出版, 2007Civil Enginnering 新たな国づくりに求められる若い感性
- Joint work, シグマベイズキャピタル社, 2006, Japaneseリアルオプションと経営戦略Scholarly book
- 第38回応用地域学会研究発表大会, Nov. 2024, Japanese誘発交通問題の再検証：走行台キロ と旅行速度を用いた分析Oral presentation
- 第70回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2024, JapaneseCausal forestを⽤いた⾼速道路インターチェンジ整備による⽣産性向上効果の推定Oral presentation
- 日本財政学会第81回全国大会, Oct. 2024, Japaneseインフラ政策・事業の評価体系とその課題[Invited]Nominated symposium
- 63rd Conference of European Regional Science Association, Aug. 2024, EnglishHeterogeneous Causal Impacts of Highway on Regional Economic Growth: Evidence from JapanOral presentation
- 第44回交通工学研究発表会, Aug. 2024, Japanese一般道路整備に対する交通需要の弾力性の推定： 道路交通センサスデータを用いた集計的分析
- 第60回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2019高速道路へのアクセス向上がもたらすストック効果の計測ー操作変数アプローチーOral presentation
- INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM AND TRANSPORT MODELLING, Mar. 2019, English, Kobe University Brussels European Centre, International conferenceCausal effects of highway access on regional productivity in JapanOral presentation
- 第58回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2018, Japanese, 大分大学旦野原キャンパス, Domestic conference道路インフラ整備が製造業事業所の立地や雇用の促進に及ぼす影響に関する差の差分析Oral presentation
- 第58回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2018, Japanese, 大分大学旦野原キャンパス, Domestic conference高速道路へのアクセスが地域の雇用及び生産性に及ぼす因果効果の推定Oral presentation
- 第58回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2018, Japanese, コンパルホール（大分市）, Domestic conference交通インフラ整備効果の因果推論：論点整理と展望[Invited]Invited oral presentation
- 平成30年度土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会, Jun. 2018, Japanese, 神戸大学六甲台第2キャンパス, Domestic conference道路インフラ整備が製造業事業所の生産性に及ぼす影響に関する差の差分析Oral presentation
- 平成30年度土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会, Jun. 2018, Japanese, 神戸大学六甲台第2キャンパス, Domestic conference高速道路へのアクセスが地域の雇用や生産性に及ぼす因果効果の推定Oral presentation
- 第58回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2018, Japanese, 東京工業大学大岡山キャンパス, Domestic conference企業間ネットワークの多様性が事業所の生産性に及ぼす影響に関する実証分析Oral presentation
- 第56回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2017, Japanese, 岩手大学, Domestic conference認知可能な情報量を考慮した偏りのない事実認識の共有手法Oral presentation
- 第56回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2017, Japanese, 岩手大学, Domestic conference集積の経済性を考慮した交通基盤整備の影響分析及び便益計測に向けた検討Oral presentation
- 第31回応用地域学会発表大会, Nov. 2017, Japanese, 東京大学, Domestic conference企業間取引ネットワークが立地集積に及ぼす影響に関する実証分析Oral presentation
- 第56回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2017, Japanese, 岩手大学, Domestic conference企業間取引ネットワークが産業集積に与える影響に関する実証分析Oral presentation
- 第55回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2017, Japanese, 愛媛大学, Domestic conference企業間取引ネットワークの変化が企業の生産性に及ぼす影響-都市間交通基盤整備に着目した実証分析-Oral presentation
- 第55回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2017, Japanese, 愛媛大学, Domestic conference企業間取引ネットワークが都市空間構造に与える影響に関する実証分析Oral presentation
- INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON INTEGRATION OF SPATIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM AND TRANSPORT MODELLING- Economic modeling and application for urban policy -, Mar. 2017, English, KUBEC, International conferenceThe Impacts of the Inter-firm Transaction Network Changes on Firm-level Productivity : An Empirical Analysis Focusing on Inter-regional Transportation InvestmentOral presentation
- 第54回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2016, Japanese, 長崎大学, Domestic conference社会ネットワークを通じた相互作用と混雑を考慮した最適交通料金政策の進化的遂行[Invited]Invited oral presentation
- 第53回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2016, Japanese, 土木学会, 北海道大学, Domestic conference協調ゲームとしてのコミュニケーションと都市政策の可能性Oral presentation
- 第53回土木計画学研究発表会, Jun. 2016, Japanese, 北海道大学, Domestic conferenceコミュニケーションと政策の実現可能性〜社会ネットワークの観点からOral presentation
- 平成28年度土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会, May 2016, Japanese, Domestic conference社会的ネットワークと都市の空間構造:ポテンシャルゲーム・アプローチOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究講演集, 2016, Japanese, Domestic conference地域公共交通における偏りのない事実認識の共有手法Oral presentation
- Nov. 2015, Japanese, 土木学会土木計画学研究委員会, 秋田大学, Domestic conference社会ネットワークに基づくコミュニケーション行動と政策分析Oral presentation
- 第52回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2015, Japanese, 土木学会土木計画学研究委員会, 秋田大学, Domestic conference産業の過剰集積がもたらす災害脆弱性と交通インフラの減災施策Oral presentation
- The 29th Annual Meeting of the Applied Regional Science Conference, Nov. 2015, Japanese, Applied Regional Science Conference, Keio University, This study contributes to the literature on the relationship between geographical and relation-based distances of economic agents. We aim to estimate the causal effect of firm’s position in the inter-firm transaction network on its spatial location within a city. Using micro data of inter-firm financial transactions for non-retail firms in Kure, a medium-sized Japanese city, we, Domestic conferenceInter-firm Transaction Networks and Location in a CityOral presentation
- The 5th International Seminar on Integration of Spatial Computable General Equilibrium and Transport Modeling, Oct. 2015, English, Kobe University, International conferenceIndustrial Location and Vulnerability to Natural HazardsOral presentation
- 17th Uddevalla Symposium, Jun. 2014, English, Uddevalla, Sweden, International conferenceSynergy Effects of Face-to-Face Interactions and Urban Spatial StructureOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2011, Japanese, Domestic conference利他的世代重複経済における社会基盤整備と世代間外部性Oral presentation
- Anglo-Japan Symposium on Brownfield Regeneration 2010, Dec. 2010, English, Domestic conferenceWhy Do Developers Prefer Cleanup for Contaminated Sites Remediation? - Applying Real Option Analysis to the Brownfields Problem-Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2010, Japanese, Domestic conference土壌汚染による塩漬け土地問題の発生メカニズムと抑制政策Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2010, Japanese, Domestic conference社会的ネットワークにおける協調形成に関するゲーム理論分析: ネットワーク・トポロジーに着目してOral presentation
- 第16回地下水・土壌汚染とその防止対策に関する研究集会・講演集, 2010, Japanese, Domestic conferenceブラウンフィールドの発生メカニズムと抑制政策Oral presentation
- 応用地域学会, Dec. 2009, Japanese, Domestic conference独占的競争下での消費者と企業の都市内同時立地パターン：Fujita(1988) モデルにおける均衡解の安定性解析Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2009, Japanese, Domestic conference都市集積・分散ダイナミクスと確率的均衡Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2009, Japanese, Domestic conference単一中心都市における住宅地の開発と建て替え、および撤退の動学的空間パターンOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2008, Japanese, Domestic conference人口減少下の単一中心都市における住宅地の開発と撤退の空間的パターンOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2008, Japanese, Domestic conference新経済成長モデルを用いたインフラ・マネジメントのマクロ経済学的考察Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2008, Japanese, Domestic conference社会的ネットワークのゲーム論的モデルとその応用可能性Oral presentation
- 日本応用経済学会, Jun. 2007, Japanese, Domestic conference集積経済下における地域間移住タイミング選択の均衡ダイナミクスOral presentation
- 一橋ゲーム理論ワークショップ, Mar. 2007, Japanese, Domestic conference収穫逓増下でのオプション行使戦略の均衡ダイナミクス: Core-Periphery モデルを例としてOral presentation
- Urban Economics Workshop, Mar. 2007, English, Domestic conferenceEquilibrium Dynamics of Migration Timing Decision in AgglomerationEconomiesOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2007, Japanese, Domestic conference貿易自由化が交通インフラ整備に与える影響に関する分析Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2007, Japanese, Domestic conference経済環境の不確実性を伴うCore-Periphery モデルにおける社会的最適資源配分Oral presentation
- 応用地域学会, Dec. 2006, Japanese, Domestic conference不確実な経済環境におけるCore-Periphery 均衡ダイナミクスOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2006, Japanese, Domestic conference不確実な経済環境における都市集積の均衡ダイナミクスOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2006, Japanese, Domestic conference災害避難時における群集行動形成メカニズムのモデル化とその厚生分析Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2005, Japanese, Domestic conference不確実性を考慮したPPPプロジェクトの契約設計Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2005, Japanese, Domestic conferenceインフラの競合性と減耗の経済成長経路に与える影響分析Oral presentation
- 応用地域学会, Dec. 2004, Japanese, Domestic conference動的な不確実性下における自然独占規制Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2004, Japanese, Domestic conference社会基盤システムの集計的アセットマネジメントモデルOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2004, Japanese, Domestic conference事前再評価のための簡便意思決定スキーム設計手法Oral presentation
- Journal of the City Planning Institute of Japan, 2003, English, This paper investigates an economic methodology for project evaluation, which explicitly incorporatese valuation costs and the option value of cexibility in decisions. The traditional cost-beneatan alysis is fundamentally based upon a now-or-never principle, and fails to evaluate the option valuesderived by reserving decisions to wait for more concrete information. In this paper, the real option model is formulated to determine the optimal evaluation and implementation timing of the project. The optimal solutions of the model can be obtained by solving the integral equation models. The solution algorithm and numerical examples are also presented. © 2003, The City Planning Institute of Japan. All rights reserved.The Optimal Evaluation and Implementation Timing Under Uncertainty
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2003, Japanese, Domestic conference部分的観測可能性を考慮した最適プロジェクト評価ルールOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2003, Japanese, Domestic conference遅延リスクを考慮したプロジェクトの事前・再評価問題Oral presentation
- 土木学会第58 回年次学術講演会・講演概要集, 2003, Japanese, Domestic conferenceプロジェクトの最適評価停止問題Oral presentation
- 土木学会 第20回建設マネジメント問題に関する研究発表・討論会, Nov. 2002, Japanese, 土木学会建設マネジメント研究委員会, 東京都, Domestic conference遅延リスクと事業評価Oral presentation
- 土木学会第57回年次学術講演会・講演概要集, 2002, Japanese, Domestic conference不可逆性を考慮したプロジェクトの事前・再評価モデルOral presentation
- 建設マネジメント問題に関する研究発表・討論会講演集, 2002, Japanese, Domestic conference遅延リスクと事業評価Oral presentation
- 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会・講演概要, 2002, Japanese, Domestic conference段階的整備プロジェクトの最適実施戦略に関する研究Oral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2002, Japanese, Domestic conferenceサンク費用を考慮したプロジェクトの事前・再評価モデルOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2002, Japanese, Domestic conferencePF 事業のためのインセンティブ契約モデル:オプションゲームアプローチOral presentation
- 2nd International Symposium on Transportation Infrastructure Management (ISTIM), Oct. 2001, English, International conferenceRisk and Profit Sharing in Overseas Construction WorksOral presentation
- 土木計画学研究・講演集, 2001, Japanese, Domestic conference段階的整備プロジェクトの経済便益評価: リアルオプションアプローチOral presentation
- 土木学会関西支部年次学術講演会, 2000, Japanese, Domestic conference家計災害リスクの認知構造を考慮した保険購入行動のモデル分析Oral presentation
■ Research Themes
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 01 Apr. 2024 - 31 Mar. 2027A Study of Social Norm Formation Mechanisms in Suicide Scarce Areas: A Natural Experimental Approach
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2024 - 31 Mar. 2026東京一極集中の要因の再検証
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業, 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2023 - 31 Mar. 2026東京一極集中の要因の再検証
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(C), 基盤研究(C), 統計数理研究所, 01 Apr. 2021 - 31 Mar. 2024自殺予防因子の探索およびその普及と定着の方法に関する研究本研究では自殺予防因子の普及と定着を目的に、これまでの研究を二つの方向に発展させる。ひとつは、A.成長過程で身に着ける思考や行動様式の習得プロセスの把握、もうひとつは、B. 問題の顕在化と早期介入を促す住民のコミュニケーション特性とコミュニティの空間構造特性の抽出である。また、AとBの研究成果を照らし合わせ、相互の作用とそれがコミュニティにもたらす影響についても考察する。 当研究チームは、自殺が極めて少ない地域（自殺希少地域）を対象に質的・量的研究を行ない、その結果から自殺の発生を抑制する「自殺予防因子」を抽出した。次の段階として、自殺予防因子の他地域への普及に向け、その手立てを検討する。本研究ではこれまでの研究成果をふまえ、さらに二つの方向に発展させる。ひとつは、A.成長過程で身に着ける思考や行動様式の習得プロセスの把握、もうひとつは、B. 問題の顕在化と早期介入を促す住民のコミュニケーション特性とコミュニティの空間構造特性の抽出である。また、AとBの研究成果を照らし合わせ、相互の作用とそれがコミュニティにもたらす影響についても考察する。自殺予防因子は地域社会と人の営みの中に潜むことから、心理学や精神医学をはじめ、地理学、都市工学、人間行動科学など様々な視点から本研究に取り組む。
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(B), 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2020 - 31 Mar. 2023EBPMに向けた交通インフラ・ストック効果計測手法の確立と事後評価への展開令和3年度の研究実績として，主に以下に示す成果を得た． １．差の差分(DD) 法による交通インフラ・ストック効果計測手法の開発と実証 我が国における高速道路整備がIC 周辺地域の雇用や事業所立地に及ぼす因果効果をランダムサンプリングと傾向スコアマッチング・差分の差分法を用いて推定した．その上で，処置群をいくつかの距離帯に分けて推定を行うことによって，効果の及ぶ空間範囲を明らかにした．さらに，従来より採用される代替的手法である，処置群の周辺地域（あるいは，周辺地域に含まれる個体）を対照群とする手法との比較を通じて，提案手法の有効性を示した．また，Synthetic control法や複数処置変数を考慮した傾向スコア法など新たな手法を適用し，交通インフラ整備の影響に関する実証分析を行なった． 2．操作変数法による高速交通ネットワーク整備政策の事後評価 三大都市（東京・大阪・名古屋）を除いた地方部の都市雇用圏を対象として，高速道路ネットワークの整備水準を示す市場アクセスと集積の経済を示す雇用者密度がそれぞれ地価に及ぼす因果効果の推定を行った．その際，欠落変数や逆の因果性によるバイアスが生じる可能性を考慮し，明治時代の市場アクセスと人口密度を操作変数とする操作変数法を採用した．推定の結果，市場アクセスと雇用者密度に関して共に有意な結果が得られたことから，高速道路ネットワークによる他都市へのアクセス性や雇用者密度が地価に正の因果効果を及ぼすことが明らかとなった．最小二乗法と操作変数法の推定値の差が比較的に小さいことから，これまでの高速道路整備が地方都市圏間で大きな偏りが生じないように満遍なく進められてきた可能性が示唆された．
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 基盤研究(B), 基盤研究(B), 神戸大学, 01 Apr. 2020 - 31 Mar. 2023大規模小売店舗の影響に関する総合的実証的研究
本研究は，大規模小売店舗（大型店）の出店・撤退の影響を総合的な実証分析により把握することを目的としている．具体的には [I] 統計的因果推論アプローチ，[II] 構造推定アプローチ，[III] 行動モデルアプローチの3つのアプローチを用いて，研究期間内に以下の点を明らかにするものである．[I]大型店の出店・撤退が地域に与えた因果的な影響を統計的因果推論により明らかにする．[II] 経済モデルを用いて，[I]と合わせて複数のアプローチによる大型店の出店・撤退の影響分析を行うとともに，社会的厚生に与えた影響を明らかにする． [III]. 大型店の出店・撤退メカニズムを相互作用を考慮した行動モデルの開発と適用を通じて明らかにする． 昨年度は，[I]，[II]，[III] それぞれにおいて引き続き文献レビューとデータ収集を行うとともに，[I] については統計的因果推論手法の検証と関連する実証分析，[II]，[III]については，アンケート調査に基づくモデル分析を行い，一定の成果を得た．具体的には，[I] については，「大型小売店データ」（東洋経済）と公示地価のデータセットを構築し，大規模小売店舗の出店が固定資産税に与える影響を考える上での基礎として，商業地価への影響を地方別に分析し，いくつかの有益な示唆を得た．また，その成果を論文として投稿した．[II]，[III]については，アンケート分析に基づき，地域通貨両面市場における消費者と店舗の相互作用に関するモデル開発と実証分析を行った． - Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2019 - 31 Mar. 2022Optimal level of infrastructure related expenses -theoretical and empirical approach-現在，わが国の公共事業関係費は対GDP比で3.2％であり，ピーク時と比較して半減している．他方，欧米諸国との比較では，依然高い水準にある．この水準が適切であるかどうかの判断は，単純な各国比較や時系列比較だけでなく，理論的・実証的・構造的アプローチが不可欠である．理論的分析では動学マクロ経済学のフレームでインフラストラクチャーの特性を再定義し，理論的な最適性がどのような要因に依存するのかを検証する．その結果，不確実性が高いわが国では，インフラストラクチャーの社会的価値が高く，より高い水準での整備が正当化されることを証明した．実証的分析では社会資本ストック額および公共事業関係費と経済成長力に関する因果推論を実施することで，様々な面でのインフラストラクチャーの効果の計測に成功している．さらに，構造的分析では，建設産業および入札制度，地理的要因などに着目し，わが国の公共事業の費用構造に関する特異性を分析した．これら，３つの分析を総合的に判断し，最終的にはわが国の公共事業関係費の現状水準は，最適水準と比較して低いことがあきらかになった．そして，その要因をインフラの意思決定手法にあると考え，公共財としてではないインフラストラクチャーの価値としてまとめた．そこでは，これまでインフラストラクチャーがサミュエルソンが定義した公共財としての価値のみに注目していることを指摘し，宇沢弘文が定義した社会的共通資本としての価値，すなわち，国民の基本的権利を満たすものとする価値が存在し，その価値観の共有こそが重要であることを示した．次年度は，これらの知見を欧米のインフラストラクチャー評価手法と比較検討することで，わが国におけるインフラストラクチャーの評価手法の再構築を目指す．
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2016 - 31 Mar. 2019, Principal investigatorIn order to evaluate the effect of public investment for disaster management appropriately, it is necessary to take agglomeration economies into account. In this study, we constructs a new economic geography (NEG) model incorporating a natural disaster risk and examines the interrelationship between industrial agglomeration and vulnerability of a spatial economy. We show that the location pattern emerging as the market equilibrium is characterized by over-agglomeration and is more vulnerable than that of social optimum. We also declare that disaster mitigation investment improves the utilitarian social welfare, but it does not always increase the survival rate of firms at the time of disaster. Furthermore, we identify the wider economic impacts, which are not treated in the conventional cost-benefit analysis, by decomposing the overall effects of transportation investments for disaster prevention.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2016 - 31 Mar. 2018, Principal investigatorThis study contributes to the literature on the relationship between geographical and relation-based distances of economic agents. Using micro data of inter-firm transactions in metropolitan areas of Japan, we demonstrate that the more central firms in transaction networks tend to locate at more accessible places within the city. We also investigate how the inter-firm transaction network changes, which might be triggered by transportation investment, affect the performance of firms. Regarding the whole line opening of Kyushu Shinkansen in 2011 as an external shock, we use the difference in difference propensity score matching (DID-PSM) method to estimate the effect of the increase in the number of transactions with suppliers on the productivity of firms. Results show that improvement of transportation networks tends to enhance the density of the inter-firm transaction networks. Furthermore, we find that the increase in the number of suppliers raises firm-level productivity.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2018In order to decrease a risk in case of emergency such as traffic congestion due to catastrophic events, to build a double or triple network of highway seems effective. It clearly shows that new manufacturing factory locates in the area where the alternative route to major cities is developed. ”Redundancy Effects” in this study means that shortening of transportation time of the alternative route to major cities promotes manufacturing factory location. The purpose of this study is to estimate this effect by using fixed effect model. As a result of estimation, redundancy effects were observed in some areas. Many of these areas are far from the urban area.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Saitama University, 01 Apr. 2014 - 31 Mar. 2017Analyzing market structure and mechanism design in reverse logisticsA large amount of used products is recycled by municipalities and recyclers in Japan. Municipality collects and delivers used products to a contracted recycler. Contracts are awarded to recyclers who submit the highest bid for the used products at auction. This study analyzes the used products auctions. First, we estimated the effect of spatial distances between municipalities and recyclers to the valuation of recyclers in the polyethylene terephthalate (PET) bottle auctions by applying structural estimation. Second, we developed models to examine the effect of changes in auction format and introduction of conditional subsidy on the auction with asymmetric recyclers. Third, we examined an efficient resource allocation to maximize Japanese municipalities’ revenues from PET bottle recycling auctions and the potential revenue of municipalities by formulating mixed integer programming model.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2013 - 31 Mar. 2016, Principal investigatorIn this study, we examined the interdependency between social and geographical distance, incorporating both social and transportation networks explicitly. To this end, first, we propose a theoretical framework that incorporates both social and transportation networks into an equilibrium model of social interactions in order to examine how the level and the spatial pattern of interactions between agents depend on both networks. Second, location choices and socialization (link formation in social networks) choices were examined in this framework. We showed that a decrease of transportation cost would lead to locational dispersion and decline the level of social welfare in a city. Third, we discussed evolutionary implementation of optimal toll scheme on social interactions and traffic congestion. Finally, we estimated the causal effect of agent’s position in the social network on its spatial location within a city, using micro date of inter-firm transaction network.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2012 - 31 Mar. 2015The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between social media information and returning home behavior in disaster. In order to analyze Twitter’s textual data, which is tweeted in the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March, 2011, this study applies text-mining approach. The results of text-mining confirm the trend of collocation’s network among terms after the Earthquake happened, and the distribution of term co-occurrence frequency. On the other hand, using the returning home data sets on 11 March, 2011 collected, this study calculate the differences of estimated population between one point and the former point. Moreover, using the two data sets, this study analyzed the relationship between both using a canonical correlation analysis. Term co-occurrence frequency in Social Media and behavior of returning home is applied to two sets of variables in canonical analysis, and the estimation results demonstrated that these two are significantly interdependent.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Kobe University, 2011 - 2013Modeling Formulation Mechanism of Remembered Utility in Evaluating Driving EnvironmentDriver's retrospective evaluation for the quality of traffic service (QOTS) based on macroscopic traffic conditions of a road section is not necessarily equivalent for the simple summation of driver's spot evaluation for the QOTS based on microscopic traffic conditions at each point of the section. Understanding this phenomenon requires the understanding of a mechanism through which section-basis evaluation based on driver's remembrance is formed from point-basis evaluations. This research project proposed a mechanism model for the formation of section-basis evaluation described by using "driver's remembered utility", while formulating the relation between the point-basis and section-basis evaluations as the updating process of "the degree of certitude", and formulating the structure of point-basis evaluation by using "point-basis perceived utility". Through a series of experiments, perceived evaluation of driver and estimated evaluation based on the proposed model show good fitness.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Kobe University, 2010 - 2012, Principal investigatorIn this research project, we study on social coordination in networks. First, we focus on the evolution of coordination in social networks and examine the effect of network topology on the long-run outcome. Second, we propose a theoretical framework that incorporates both social and transportation networks into an equilibrium model of social interactions in order to examine how the level and the spatial pattern of social coordination between agents depend on both networks. Our finding unveils a mechanism of coordination in social networks, which is now supposed to be a key factor of regional sustainable development.Competitive research funding
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Tohoku University, 2009 - 2011Self-organized spatial patterns of industry agglomerationTwo-location Core-Periphery (CP)models in New Economic Geography exhibit a bifurcation from a symmetric equilibrium to an asymmetric one, depending on transportation costs. This study reveals interesting bifurcation properties of the CP models in more general settings, such as a two-dimensional space and a multi-industry economy. Some of the major findings of this study are 1) Christaller's hexagonal agglomeration patterns are proven to exist as stable equilibria of the CP models on a two-dimensional lattice, 2)"Hierarchy principle" of industry agglomeration patterns holds for the multi-industry CP models, 3) the multi-industry CP models generate the population distributions that follow"central place regularities", i.e, the distribution satisfies a rank-size rule, a hierarchy principle, and a number-average size rule.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Tohoku University, 2008 - 2010transportation project finance with marginal cost of public funds(1) Optimal funding for an individual transportation project is the policy mix of toll level and subsidy such that the marginal cost (mc) of tolling equals to the mc of subsidy funds. (2) Optimal toll expressway length and its funding is the policy mix of construction length, toll level and subsidy such that the marginal benefit-net expenditure ratio, the marginal cost (mc) of tolling and the mc of subsidy funds are all equal. (3) Optimal ordinary road length and its funding is the policy mix of construction length and road related tax level such that the marginal benefit-net expenditure ratio, the marginal cost (mc) of road related tax and the mc of subsidy funds are all equal.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Tohoku University, 2008 - 2009On free trade networks and industrial locationIn this study, I propose a novel framework that can consider the formation of free trade agreements (FTA networks) and industrial location patterns. I formulate a multi-countries monopolistic competition model to specify the industrial location pattern which appears on a given FTA network, and then I examine 1) countries' incentive to sign FTA and 2) pairwise stability of FTA networks. I declare that the complete FTA network is not always the unique stable network. When transportation cost is low, trade integration makes industry excessively agglomerated in more trade open countries and less trade open countries' incentive to sign FTA decreases. Due to the effect, FTAs might be "stumbling blocks" to global free trade.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Tohoku University, 2007 - 2008Bifurcation Analysis of Agglomeration Economies in a System of Cities本研究の第一の目的は, 新経済地理学(空間経済学)分野で発展してきた都市集積理論を, 多数の都市を扱いうる理論に一般化することである. そのために, まず, 従来研究による2都市CP(Core-Periphery)モデルをN都市モデル(N>2)に拡張した. そして, その均衡解の分岐パターンおよびメカニズムを解明するための方法(群論的分岐理論と数値分岐経路追跡の併用法)を開発した. 解析の結果,多数の都市が円周上に位置するCPモデルでは,輸送・交通費用の変化に伴い,"空間的な周期倍分岐"に代表される多段階の対称性破壊分岐が起こることを明らかにした. さらに,"空間的割引行列"の概念に基づいた新たな解析的アプローチも開発した.このアプローチを用いることによって,様々な集積・分散現象の具体的な仕組みが解析的に明らかにされた. 本研究の第二の目的は, 都市集積モデルの複数均衡選択問題に対して, 現実的な原理を導入した動学モデルを構築し, その理論的な特性を明らかにすることである. 本研究では, まず, 経済状態の不確実性(確率動学的なゆらぎ)を導入した動学モデルを構築した. そして, この確率的な状態変数の導入によって, 確定的な従来モデルでは不定であった動的な均衡経路が一意的に決定されることを証明した. また, 状態変数のゆらぎにともなう均衡状態の確率分布は, 定常状態に収束することを示した. これらの結果から, 従来研究によって主張されていた「消費者集団の期待によって, 複数の均衡解間での逆転的推移が生じる」といった現象は, 確率論的に無視できることを明らかにした. さらに, 上記の動学的均衡モデルに加え, 社会的最適状態モデルを構築した. このモデルは確率的インパルス制御問題として定式化され, 変分不等式理論に基づく数値解法を開発した. 系統的な数値実験により, 最適制御ルールの特性, および均衡状態と社会的最適状態の相違が明らかにされた.
- 日本学術振興会, 科学研究費助成事業 若手研究(B), 若手研究(B), 東北大学, 2006 - 2007災害避難時における群集行動形成メカニズムのモデル化とその厚生分析災害避難時における群集行動形成メカニズムを説明するモデルの構築し,厚生分析を行った.昨年度に構築した2期間2主体モデルであるプロトタイプモデルを3期間3主体モデルへと拡張し,モデルの均衡解の特性を解明した.分析より,災害避難において人々が他者の行動を互いに観察し合う結果,非効率な状況が発生しやすいことが明らかになった.また,公的情報の精度,人々の災害リスク認知精度の向上に加えて,災害リスクの知識を豊富に持ち,率先して行動を決定することができる防災リーダーを日頃から育てる必要が高いことを示した.主要な結果については,プロトタイプモデルと同様な性質を確認できた.ただし,ここで用いたモデルは,1度きり(1ショット)のゲームを想定しているため,繰り返し災害リスクに直面する人々の行動を十分に記述できていない.特に,「避難の空振り」がその後の災害リスク認知や避難行動に及ぼす影響については考慮できていない.政府による避難情報提供のあり方については,モデルの枠組みを拡張して,深く検討を行っていく必要がある. こうしたことを踏まえ,より一般的な枠組みの下で,不確実性,外部性が存在する下での人々のオプション行使に関する意思決定(例えば,避難選択や移住選択)とその結果として起こる均衡ダイナミクスついて分析を行い,基本的な性質を解明した.これらの研究成果について,学会で発表を行い,論文として学術雑誌に掲載している.今後の課題としては,ここで得られた知見を災害避難問題へとフィードバックしていくことが残されている.
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Tohoku University, 2005 - 2007Welfare foundations of cost benefit analysis under uncertain, dynamic and multiregional economyThis study aims to explore the relationships between the definition of benefit, its measurement methods, its consistency with utility level and compensation test under uncertain, dynamic and /or multiregional economy. The main results are summarized as follows. 1. Benefit definition, its measurability and its consistency with compensation test under uncertainty: It proposes to apply the concept of Allais Surplus to the definition of benefit under uncertainty, and shows that (1) the proposed definition is consistent with both the expected utility and compensation test; (2) it is measurable by observing the individual behaviors of disaster prevention investments. 2. Benefit measurement formula for multiregional (dynamic) economy:(1) It shows that the reason that new transportation project induces further congestion deterioration is due to the existence of agglomeration economy, and that for measuring total transportation project benefits it needs to measure not only the transportation user (dis) benefits but also agglomeration benefits. (2) It shows that without small and open assumption the total benefit of local public goods can be measured by the change in land prices. (3) It improves the transportation benefit measurement formula by explicitly expressing the transportation activities as a economic sector within the framework of SCGE. 3. Macro economic evaluation of global warming mitigation policies under dynamic economy: (1) it develops the modified RICE model where Japan is treated as one region, and (2) defines benefits=GDP+WTP, cost=investment, net benefit=consumption, then (3) develops the algorism within the optimization problem framework for simulating the business as usual situation, and (4) carries out the sensitivity analysis on the pure time preference rate and elasticity of marginal utility with respect to consumption. 4. Evaluation model under dynamic and uncertain economy: (1) It develops the pre and intermediate evaluation models with explicit inclusion of stop and pause options for a public project, and (2) shows methods to measure the economic value for such options
- 科学研究費補助金, 2006都市システムにおける経済集積・分散の動学過程に関する研究Competitive research funding
- Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research, 2006A Study on Equilibrium Dynamics of Interregional Migration under Agglomeration EconomiesCompetitive research funding
- 2004社会資本整備のリスクマネジメントCompetitive research funding
- 2004Risk ManagementCompetitive research funding