Directory of Researchers

KINKYO Takuji
Graduate School of Economics / Division of Economics
Professor
Business / Economics
Last Updated :2022/01/10

Researcher Profile and Settings

Affiliation

  • <Faculty / Graduate School / Others>

    Graduate School of Economics / Division of Economics
  • <Related Faculty / Graduate School / Others>

    Faculty of Economics / Department of Economics

Teaching

Research Activities

Research Areas

  • Humanities & social sciences / Money and finance / International Finance

Awards

  • 2015 Lifescience Glogal, Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Editor's Choice, Kinkyo, T. and Hamori, S., (2014) Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Integration of the Securities Market in East Asia, Journal of REviews on Global Economics, Vol.3, pp.293-309

    KINKYO TAKUJI, HAMORI SHIGEYUKI

    Official journal

Published Papers

  • Lei. Xu, Shigeyuki Hamori, Takuji. Kinkyo

    Corresponding, Elsevier BV, Jan. 2021, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 101360 - 101360, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Elsevier BV, Nov. 2020, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101289 - 101289, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Elsevier BV, Nov. 2020, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101067 - 101067, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Wiley, 17 Aug. 2020, International Journal of Finance & Economics

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Elsevier BV, Apr. 2020, Research in International Business and Finance, 52, 101174 - 101174

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Wang Chen, Shigeyuki Hamori, Takuji Kinkyo

    Corresponding, Informa UK Limited, 11 Mar. 2020, Applied Economics Letters, 27 (5), 400 - 405

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Informa UK Limited, 23 Feb. 2020, Applied Economics Letters, 27 (4), 255 - 261, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Katsuyuki Tanaka, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    © 2019, © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This article introduces a novel technological distance measure between companies based on their patent portfolios. We describe the technological position or characteristics of companies by applying the framework of language modelling technique in information retrieval on their patent portfolios. The proposed novel approach is an asymmetric measure and better captures the technological characteristic of a company and hence is a more accurate distance measure.

    24 Oct. 2019, Applied Economics Letters, 26 (18), 1548 - 1551

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Katsuyuki Tanaka, Takuo Higashide, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    Wiley, Oct. 2019, Economic Inquiry, 57 (4), 2017 - 2034, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Wang Chen, Shigeyuki Hamori, Takuji Kinkyo

    Corresponding, Elsevier BV, Apr. 2019, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 48, 567 - 581

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Lei. Xu, Takuji. Kinkyo

    Corresponding, Informa UK Limited, 30 Mar. 2019, Applied Economics Letters, 26 (6), 465 - 472

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • zhaojie luo, Xiaojing Cai, Katsuyuki Tanaka, Tetsuya Takiguchi, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    {MDPI} {AG}, 08 Jan. 2019, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12 (1), 9 - 9, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Lei Xu, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    We propose a novel approach that combines random forests and the wavelet transform to model the prediction of currency crises. Our classification model of random forests, built using both standard predictors and wavelet predictors, and obtained from the wavelet transform, achieves a demonstrably high level of predictive accuracy. We also use variable importance measures to find that wavelet predictors are key predictors of crises. In particular, we find that real exchange rate appreciation and overvaluation, which are measured over a horizon of 16–32 months, are the most important.

    Corresponding, MDPI AG, 04 Dec. 2018, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11 (4), 86 - 86, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Zhaojie Luo, Jinhui Chen, Xiao Jing Cai, Katsuyuki Tanaka, Tetsuya Takiguchi, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    © 2018 IEEE. This paper proposes a novel approach based on a supervised Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) model that forecasts the crude oil prices with Adaptive Scales Continuous Wavelet Transform (AS-CWT). In our study, we first confirmed that the possibility of using Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) to decompose an oil price series into various components, such as the sequence of days, weeks, months and years, so that the decomposed new time series can be used as inputs for a deep-learning (DL) training model. Second, we find that applying the proposed adaptive scales in the CWT method can strengthen the dependence of inputs and provide more useful information, which can improve the forecasting performance. Finally, we use the supervised GANs model as a training model, which can provide more accurate forecasts than those of the naive forecast (NF) model and other nonlinear models, such as Neural Networks (NNs), and Deep Belief Networks (DBNs) when dealing with a limited amount of oil prices data.

    26 Nov. 2018, Proceedings - International Conference on Pattern Recognition, 2018-August, 830 - 835, English

    [Refereed]

    International conference proceedings

  • Katsuyuki Tanaka, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    © 2018 by the authors. This study develops a systematic framework for assessing a country's financial vulnerability using a predictive classification model of random forests. We introduce a new indicator that quantifies the potential loss in bank assets and measures a country's overall vulnerability by aggregating these indicators across the banking sector. We also visualize the degree of vulnerability by creating a Financial Hazard Map that highlights countries and regions with underlying risks in their banking sectors.

    MDPI, 11 May 2018, Sustainability (Switzerland), 10 (5), 1530, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • LSTMネットワークによる企業財務データの回帰分析

    SHIROUCHI Kohei, EGUCHI Koji, KINKYO Takuji, HAMORI Shigeyuki

    Mar. 2018, JSAI Technical Report, SIG-FIN-020, 90 - 96, Japanese

    Symposium

  • Forecasting the vulnerability of industrial economic activities: Predicting the bankruptcy of companies

    Katsuyuki Tanaka, Takuo Higashide, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    © 2017 Journal of Management Information and Decision Sciences. This study introduces a framework for forecasting the vulnerability of industrial economic activities based on the financial statements of companies. We consider the task of identifying the bankruptcy of a company as a classification problem and apply the random forest method to build a highly accurate bankruptcy prediction model. Based on the predictions of our model, we summarize the vulnerability of the economic activities of companies in different industries. We also apply the predicted probability of bankruptcy of our model as risk management of industries. Finally, we demonstrate that our bankruptcy model can predict credit default swaps to a significant degree. The high accuracy of the bankruptcy model and usage of more than 500,000 pieces of company data enable us to provide more precise and reliable forecasts of industrial economic activity.

    Allied Business Academies, 01 Dec. 2017, Journal of Management Information and Decision Science, 20 (Specialissue1), 1 - 24, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • W. Chen, S. Hamori, T. Kinkyo

    Corresponding, Informa UK Limited, 30 Mar. 2017, Applied Economics Letters, 24 (6), 422 - 426, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • 深層生成モデルによる時系列ネットワークの低次元埋め込み

    ENDO Koichiro, EGUCHI Koji, HAMORI Shigeyuki, KINKYO Takuji

    Mar. 2017, JSAI Technical Report, SIG-FIN-018, 111 - 118, Japanese

    Symposium

  • Katsuyuki Tanaka, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    Elsevier BV, Nov. 2016, Economics Letters, 148, 118 - 121, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rates

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    神戸大学経済経営学会, Sep. 2016, Journal of Economics and Business and Administration, 214 (3), 17 - 32, Japanese

    Scientific journal

  • Revisiting the Roles of Financial Access and Deepening for Growth and Reducing Inequality

    Takeshi Inoue, Takuji Kinkyo, HAMORI SHIGEYUKI

    Routledge, Feb. 2016, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol.52 (Issue 3), 722 - 723, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Wang Chen, KINKYO TAKUJI

    Corresponding, Taylor and Francis, Feb. 2016, Emerging Markets, Finance and Trade, 52 (3), 733 - 742, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo, Wang Chen

    The global financial crisis of 2007–09 has promoted a renewed interest in crossborder spillovers of financial stress shocks. Financial stress is a serious disruption to the proper functioning of financial markets that has adverse effects on real economic activity. The US subprime mortgage crisis developed into a full-blown financial crisis, spreading the financial stress quickly to the rest of the world. The underlying cause of the crisis was the combination of excessive risk taking by private sectors and the failure of public sectors to address systemic risks arising from market failures. In response to the crisis, internationally coordinated efforts have been made to increase the resilience of global financial systems by promoting a range of regulatory reforms. However, the question remains as to whether the global financial systems will become much more resilient by the ongoing reforms.

    Corresponding, Springer India, 01 Jan. 2015, Global Economic Cooperation: Views from G20 Countries, 211 - 226, English

    [Refereed]

    In book

  • DEMACHI KAZUE, KINKYO TAKUJI

    神戸大学経済経営学会, Sep. 2014, Journal of Economics & Business Administration, 210 (3), 55 - 67, Japanese

    Research institution

  • Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Integration of the Securities Market in East Asia

    KINKYO TAKUJI, Shigeyuki Hamori

    Lead, Lifescience Global, Aug. 2014, Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, 3, 293 - 309, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Wang Chen, Shigeyuki Hamori, Takuji Kinkyo

    Corresponding, Elsevier BV, Mar. 2014, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 29, 1 - 12

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    China has long been accused of keeping the renminbi undervalued so that its export competitiveness can be maintained (IMF, People' Republic of China: 2004 Article IV Consultation IMF Country Report 064/351, 2004 Bergsten et al., China's rise: challenges and opportunities, 2009). In response to the international pressures to increase flexibility in the exchange rate regime, the Chinese government introduced a new exchange rate regime in July 2005. Under this regime, the renminbi would be managed with reference to a basket of currencies rather than a single currency of the US dollar. However, the renminbi-dollar rate is kept within a narrow band by massive official interventions in foreign exchange markets and its central rate has been allowed to appreciate only gradually.

    Lead, Springer India, 01 Dec. 2013, Global Cooperation Among G20 Countries: Responding to the Crisis and Restoring Growth, 101 - 108, English

    [Refereed]

    In book

  • Securities Market Integration in East Asia

    Takuji Kinkyo

    Oct. 2012, Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 第206巻第4号63-78頁, Japanese

    Scientific journal

  • De facto exchange rate regimes in post-crisis Asia

    Takuji Kinkyo

    Aug. 2012, Economics Bulletin, Volume 32, Issue 3, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • 東アジアの金融協力:チェンマイ・イニシアティブの現状と課題

    KINKYO Takuji

    Mar. 2011, 世界経済評論, 3/4月号(通巻658号)Vol.55 No.2, Japanese

    Scientific journal

  • 均衡為替レートの概念と推定法

    KINKYO Takuji

    Feb. 2011, 神戸大学経済学研究年報, 第57号, Japanese

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Lead, World Scientific Publishing Co., 01 Jan. 2011, Two Asias: The Emerging Postcrisis Divide, 155 - 176, English

    [Refereed]

    In book

  • 世界金融危機の東アジア新興国経済への影響

    KINKYO Takuji

    Nov. 2010, 国民経済雑誌, 202 (5), Japanese

    Scientific journal

  • 東アジアのコーポレート・ガバナンス改革:タイ、韓国、マレーシアの事例を中心に

    KINKYO Takuji

    Feb. 2010, 神戸大学経済学研究年報, 第56号, Japanese

    Scientific journal

  • T. Kinkyo

    Oxford University Press (OUP), 10 Jan. 2007, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32 (1), 111 - 124, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Elsevier BV, Jul. 2007, World Development, 35 (7), 1120 - 1133, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Wang Chen, Zhiwen Zhang, Shigeyuki Hamori, Takuji Kinkyo

    Corresponding, Elsevier BV, Oct. 2021, International Review of Financial Analysis, 77, 101855 - 101855, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuo Higashide, Katsuyuki Tanaka, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    This study analyzes the importance of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Co-Location dataset (TSE Co-Location dataset) to forecast the realized volatility (RV) of Tokyo stock price index futures. The heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is a popular linear regression model used to forecast RV. This study expands the HAR model using the TSE Co-Location dataset, stock full-board dataset and market volume dataset based on the random forest method, which is a popular machine learning algorithm and a nonlinear model. The TSE Co-Location dataset is a new dataset. This is the only information that shows the transaction status of high-frequency traders. In contrast, the stock full-board dataset shows the status of buying and selling dominance. The market volume dataset is used as a proxy for liquidity and is recognized as important information in finance. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to use the TSE co-location dataset. The experimental results show that our model yields a higher forecast out-of-sample accuracy of RV than the HAR model. Moreover, we find that the TSE Co-Location dataset has become more important in recent years, along with the increasing importance of high-frequency trading.

    MDPI AG, 10 May 2021, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14 (5), 215 - 215, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • East Asia’s Integration: Progress Made and Implications for EU-Japan Cooperation

    Takuji Kinkyo

    Lead, Apr. 2014, Japan and the European Union in the Global Economy (Bruegel Blueprint Series Vol. XXII), English

    Symposium

  • Coordinating Regional Financial Arrangements with the IMF: Challenges to Asia and Lessons from the EU

    Takuji Kinkyo

    Lead, Jan. 2013, The Palgrave Handbook of EU-Asia Relations, English

    [Refereed]

    In book

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Elsevier BV, Nov. 2021, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 58, 101515 - 101515, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Takuji Kinkyo

    Elsevier BV, Jan. 2022, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 59, 101598 - 101598, English

    [Refereed]

    Scientific journal

  • Xu Lei, Kinkyo Takuji

    In this study, we analyze the degree of intra-regional integration in European and Asian stock markets. We first use the methods of wavelet multiple correlation (WMC)and wavelet multiple cross-correlation(WMCC)to examine the multiscale correlations of stock returns in the two regions. Then, we estimate the Diebold and Yilmaz spillover index for the stock returns and their wavelet details at each scale. The results indicate that the integration of European stock returns is stronger than that of Asian stock returns at every time horizons. They also indicate that France is the primary contributors to stock market integration in the eurozone, while Hong Kong and Singapore assume similar roles in Asia.

    Corresponding, 神戸大学経済経営学会, Jun. 2020, 国民経済雑誌 = Journal of economics & business administration, 221 (6), 21 - 34, English

    Scientific journal

MISC

  • 新興国経済 東アジアの経済統合

    KINKYO Takuji

    Mar. 2011, 神戸大学経済経営学会編『経済学ハンドブック』, 第25章, Japanese

    Introduction scientific journal

  • Predicting Currency Crises: A Novel Approach Combining Random Forests and Wavelet Transform

    Xu Lei, Kinkyo Takuji, Hamori Shigeyuki

    We propose a novel approach that combines random forests and the wavelet transform to model the prediction of currency crises. Our classification model of random forests, built using both standard predictors and wavelet predictors, and obtained from the wavelet transform, achieves a demonstrably high level of predictive accuracy. We also use variable importance measures to find that wavelet predictors are key predictors of crises. In particular, we find that real exchange rate appreciation and overvaluation, which are measured over a horizon of 16-32 months, are the most important.

    MDPI, Dec. 2018, Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 11 (4), 86 - 86, English

Books etc

  • 『変容するASEAN商業銀行』第3章「財務諸表によるASEAN商業銀行の特徴の分析」

    濱田美紀;金京拓司

    Contributor, アジア経済研究所, Mar. 2020

  • 「現代東アジア経済論」第6章「国際金融環境と東アジア経済」

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    Contributor, ミネルヴァ書房, Oct. 2017, Japanese

    Scholarly book

  • Moving up the ladder : development challenges for low and middle-income Asia

    Shigeyuki Kabe, Ryuichi Ushiyama, Takuji Kinkyo, Shigeyuki Hamori

    Joint editor, World Scientific, Apr. 2016, English, ISBN: 9789814723565

  • Financial linkages, remittances, and resource dependence in East Asia

    Takuji Kinkyo, Takeshi Inoue, Shigeyuki Hamori

    Joint editor, World Scientific, Jan. 2016, English, ISBN: 9789814713399

  • Financial globalization and regionalism in East Asia

    Takuji Kinkyo, Yoichi Matsubayashi, Shigeyuki Hamori

    Joint editor, Routledge, Nov. 2013, English, ISBN: 9780415659840

  • Global linkages and economic rebalancing in East Asia

    Takuji Kinkyo, Yoichi Matsubayashi, Shigeyuki Hamori

    Joint editor, World Scientific, May 2012, English, ISBN: 9789814412841

  • 為替レート制度選択の経済分析 : 東アジア持続的成長の条件

    金京, 拓司

    Single work, 東洋経済新報社, Sep. 2011, Japanese, ISBN: 9784492443842

Presentations

  • FIVE OBSERVATIONS ABOUT JAPAN-ROK ECONOMIC RELATIONS

    Takuji Kinkyo

    Japan-Republic of Korea Economic Relations for the Future (Asian Development Bank Institute), 01 Nov. 2019, English

    [Invited]

    Nominated symposium

  • FORECASTING THE VULNERABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: PREDICTING THE BANKRUPTCY OF COMPANIES

    HIGASHIDE TAKUO, TANAKA KATSUYUKI, KINKYO TAKUJI, HAMORI SHGEYUKI

    WEAI 14th. International Conference, Jan. 2018, English, Newcastle, Australia, International conference

    Oral presentation

  • The Effect of the 2015 Renminbi Reform on the Relationship between Onshore and Offshore Exchange Markets(討論者)

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    日本金融学会2017年度春季大会, Sep. 2017, Japanese, 鹿児島大学, Domestic conference

    Oral presentation

  • 中国・アセアン経済の行方とアジアの金融・通貨秩序(討論者)

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    日本金融学会2017年度春季大会, May 2017, Japanese, 早稲田大学, Domestic conference

    [Invited]

    Nominated symposium

  • ASEAN Banking Integration

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    Post-Crisis Restructuring of Trade and Financial Architecture: Asian and European Perspectives, Dec. 2015, English, Asian Development Bank Institute (Tokyo), International conference

    [Invited]

    Nominated symposium

  • Housing Wealth and Aggregate Fluctuation: The perspective of Large-Open economy (Discussion)

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    International Conference on Applied Econometrics in Hawaii, Nov. 2015, English, Honolulu, Hawaii, International conference

    Others

  • The Spillover Effects of Japanese Economic Shocks in the Asian Pacific Region

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    Workshop on Economic Stagnation and Deflation: Challenges for Japan in Comparative Perspective, Jul. 2015, English, SOAS, University of London, Domestic conference

    [Invited]

    Nominated symposium

  • 中国の金融(座長)

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    日本金融学会2015年度春季大会, May 2015, Japanese, 東京経済大学, Domestic conference

    Others

  • Financial Development, Inclusiveness and Openness

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    Managing Financial Integration and Inclusiveness in ASEAN, Sep. 2014, English, ADB Institute & Minstry of Finance, Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia, International conference

    [Invited]

    Nominated symposium

  • 中国におけるシャドーバンキング(討論)

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    日本金融学会2014年度春季大会, May 2014, Japanese, 日本金融学会, 慶応大学, Domestic conference

    Others

  • Macroprudential Regulations: Challenges and Implications

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    Governance and Development: Views from G20 Countries, Sep. 2013, Japanese, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India, International conference

    Oral presentation

  • Portfolio Investment Flows and Capital Controls

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    2nd. OECD-AMRO Joint Asian Regional Roundtable, Jul. 2013, English, OECD & AMRO, Singapore, International conference

    [Invited]

    Nominated symposium

  • 金満アジアの課題(討論者)

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    アジア政経学会2012年度全国大会, Oct. 2012, Japanese, 関西学院大学, Domestic conference

    Others

  • Exchange Rate Flexibility and Economic Rebalancing in China

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    Global Economic Cooperation: Views from G20 Countries, Oct. 2012, English, ICRIER, India, New Delhi, India, International conference

    Oral presentation

  • 金融危機後の北東アジアにおける金融協力(討論者)

    金京 拓司

    日本金融学会2012年度春季大会, May 2012, Japanese, 立正大学, Domestic conference

    Others

  • Exchange Rate Regimes and Financial Integration in East Asia: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implication

    KINKYO TAKUJI

    The 6th. Trilateral Workshop of CASS-KIEP-PRI, May 2012, English, 中国社会科学院, 中国 北京, International conference

    Oral presentation

  • De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes in Post-Crisis Asia

    KINKYO Takuji

    Singapore Economic Review Conference, Aug. 2011, English, Singapore Economic Review, Singapore, International conference

    Oral presentation

  • アジア通貨危機後の為替レート制度

    KINKYO Takuji

    日本金融学会2010年度秋季大会, Sep. 2010, Japanese, 日本金融学会, 神戸市, Domestic conference

    Oral presentation

  • The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on East Asia and its Implication for Regional Cooperation

    KINKYO Takuji

    京都大学経済研究所主催国際シンポジウム,“Global Shock Wave: Rethinking Asia’s Future in Light of The Worldwide Financial Crisis and Depression 2008-2010”, Sep. 2010, English, 京都大学経済研究所, 京都市, Domestic conference

    Oral presentation

  • 東アジア新興国の為替相場制度

    KINKYO Takuji

    神戸大学金融研究会, Jun. 2010, Japanese, 神戸大学金融研究会, 神戸市, Domestic conference

    Oral presentation

Association Memberships

  • JAPAN ASSOCIATION FOR ASIAN STUDIES

  • JAPAN SOCIETY OF MONETARY ECONOMICS

  • JAPANESE ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION

Research Projects