Researcher Profile and Settings

Affiliation

• ＜Faculty / Graduate School / Others＞

  Graduate School of Engineering / Department of Civil Engineering

• ＜Related Faculty / Graduate School / Others＞

  Faculty of Engineering / Department of Civil Engineering

Teaching

• Graduate School of Engineering / Department of Civil Engineering, 2019, Applied Microeocnomics

  Link to Kobe Univ. syllabus
• Graduate School of Engineering / Department of Civil Engineering, 2019, Public Project Evaluation

  Link to Kobe Univ. syllabus
• Faculty of Engineering / Department of Civil Engineering, 2019, Conflict Management: Theory and Practice

  Link to Kobe Univ. syllabus
• Faculty of Engineering / Department of Civil Engineering, 2019, Microeconomic theory for Civil Engineering

  Link to Kobe Univ. syllabus
• Faculty of Engineering / Department of Civil Engineering, 2019, Introduction to Civil Engineering

  Link to Kobe Univ. syllabus

Research Activities

Research Areas

• Social infrastructure (civil Engineering, architecture, disaster prevention) / Civil engineering (planning and transportation)

Published Papers

• PRICE RISKS AND THE LEAD-LAG RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FUTURES AND SPOT PRICES OF SOYBEAN, WHEAT AND CORN

  Kai Liu, Atsushi Koike, Yueying Mu

  2020, Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 8 (1), 76 - 88, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Conservation payments, off-farm employment and household welfare for farmers participating in the "Grain for Green" program in China Empirical evidence from the Loess Plateau

  Li, Li, Tsunekawa, Atsushi, MacLachlan, Ian, Li, Guicai, Koike, Atsushi, Guo, Yuanyuan

  Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors (including conservation payments) that influence household decisions to participate in off-farm work and estimate the impact of participation on household welfare under the auspices of the Grain for Green (GfG) program. Design/methodology/approach The authors used survey data from 225 farm households on the Loess Plateau and addressed the possible sample selection and endogeneity problems by employing a jointly estimated endogenous switching regression (ESR) model. Findings The findings of this paper are as follows: off-farm participation is positively related to households' educational attainment and negatively related to their land resource endowment and the presence of children; participation in off-farm work exerts positive effects on household income and per capita household income, but negative effects on farm productivity; and conservation payments show no significant impact on off-farm participation, no significant impact on any of the three household welfare indicators for off-farm non-participant households, but a significantly negative impact for off-farm participant households. Originality/value This paper makes two contributions. First, the authors address the selection bias and endogeneity problem of GfG participating households by employing the ESR method and explicitly estimating the treatment effects of off-farm participation on their household welfare. Neglecting these problems leads to biased estimates and misleading policy implications. Second, this analysis stresses the important role of government in reducing market or institutional failure and other barriers that impede farmers' efficient allocation choices instead of compensating households for conserving sloping land, shedding new light on the most effective policy options to achieve the program's goals.

  EMERALD GROUP PUBLISHING LTD, Oct. 2019, CHINA AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, 12 (1), 71 - 89, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Conservation Payments and Technical Efficiency of farm Households Participating in the Grain for Green Program on the Loess Plateau of China

  Li Li, Atsushi Tsunekawa, Yangshangyu Zuo, Atsushi Koike

  This study provides an empirical analysis of household technical efficiency and its determinant factors (especially conservation payments) in the context of the Grain for Green program. On the basis of a sample of 225 farm households on the Loess Plateau in 2007, we estimate household technical efficiency using the data envelopment analysis method. In addition to a traditional ordinary least square (OLS) analysis, quantile regression (QR) analysis is also deployed to explore the possible heterogeneous effects of conservation payments and other variables on the technical efficiency across the quantiles. The results suggest that when off-farm activities are taken into account, households have considerable potential for improving their technical efficiency; OLS analysis shows that conservation payments decrease household efficiency, and the QR analysis suggests that the negative impact is significant only for higher performance households; The presence of children, access of households to leased land markets, credit markets, and extension services all show heterogeneous impacts on household efficiency. On the basis of the findings of the study, policies suggestions to improve the program’s effectiveness are provided.

  MDPI AG, 16 Aug. 2019, Sustainability, 11 (16), 4426 - 4426, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Study on the substantiation of location equilibrium in the CUE model

  Yamamoto, Hiromichi, Koike, Atsushi, Seya, Hajime

  In the Computable Urban Economic (CUE) Model, one land-use transport interaction (LUTI) model, improving the accuracy of the Location Choice Model is important to evaluate the effects of introducing urban transportation policies. However, our previous study revealed that the substantiation of the indirect utility function by a linear expenditure system has not been verified and that location choice behaviors estimated using the logit model depends on the adjustment factor. Therefore, in this study, we first examined the logical meaning of the utility function by a linear expenditure system, and then focused on identifying major constituent factors of the adjustment factor and statistically verified the adjustment factor and urban amenities. As a result, we have identified the following facts: that the conventional indirect utility function may underestimate the effect of introducing urban transportation policies; that if effects are estimated using WLS after adding housing supply factors to the indirect utility function, the estimation accuracy will be improved; and that the major constituent factors of the adjustment factor are those expressing local characteristics of cities and wards.

  ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, Apr. 2019, JOURNAL OF URBAN MANAGEMENT, 8 (1), 89 - 108, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• 詳細地域間産業連関表推定における地域間所得移転の同定

  小池淳司, 伊原一輝

  2019, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), 75 (5), I_25 - I_32

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 建設産業におけるTFP変化の要因分析

  小池淳司, 向山潤

  2019, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), 75 (5), I_17 - I_24, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Armington elasticities in multi-regional trade for transport policy in Japan

  Keisuke SATO, KOIKE ATSUSHI

  Edward Elgar Publishing, 2018, Transportation, Knowledge and Space in Urban and Regional Economics, pp.123 - 145, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• A Heuristic Approach to the Estimation of Key Parameters for a Monthly,Recursive,Dynamic CGE Model

  Masato Yamazaki, KOIKE ATSUSHI, Yoshinori Sone

  2018, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2 (3), 283 - 301, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Transportation Investments and Productivity Analysis of a Japanese Case Study

  Atsushi Koike, Ryota Okumura

  Over the last two decades, there have been several studies on productivity related to transportation investments in not only Japan but also several foreign countries. However, these prior studies did not achieve common results as they did not use a unified format for measuring the service level of the transportation network and using the dataset. Therefore, this study classifies previous studies from six points of view. These are analytical method, functional type, explained variable, service level of the transportation network, aggregation level, and estimation method. This study examines the differences in results caused by the diversity of analytical methods. In addition, this study estimates the production function using two analytical methods with Japanese data. Then, the relationship between the productivity and transport investments is revealed. From this result, several issues are confirmed.

  EDP Sciences, 05 Apr. 2017, MATEC Web of Conferences, 103, English

  [Refereed]

  International conference proceedings

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• Short-run Economic Assessment of the Transportation Recovery Policy after an Earthquake

  Atsushi Koike, Yoshinao Miyamoto

  This paper develops a short-run economic damage assessment model. The model contains two sub models. One is the conventional traffic assignment model, which calculates traveling time under the damaged transportation infrastructure. The other is the economic damage assessment model, which determines the decrease in production level in the short run. This method facilitates the identification of critical infrastructure that could reduce the economic damage when the disaster occurs. As a case study, we applied this model to several recovery plans for transport facilities. The results suggest that the proposed comprehensive model should be considered as a prevention plan.

  EDP Sciences, 05 Apr. 2017, MATEC Web of Conferences, 103, English

  [Refereed]

  International conference proceedings

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• 震災直後の交通施設復旧施策と経済影響分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 宮本佳直, 右近崇

  2017, 土木学会論文集D3, Vol.73 (No.5), I_147 - I_161, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 交通整備水準と生産性分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 奥村亮太

  2017, 土木学会論文集D3, Vol.73 (No.5), I_195 - I_214, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Socioeconomic Evaluation of Transit Oriented Development using a Detailed Spatial Scale CUE Model in Taiwan

  Hiromichi YAMAMOTO, Jumpei SANO, Kiyoshi YAMAZAKI, Kazuki YANAGISAWA, KOIKE ATSUSHI, Morito TSUTSUMI

  2017, Asian Transport Studies, Volume 4 (Issue3), 565 - 584, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Regional Financial CGE Model for Infrastructure Investment Policy

  Koike, Atsushi, Segawa, Naoki

  In this paper, regional financial computable general equilibrium (RFCGE) model was developed. The RFCGE model is a useful tool in the evaluation of regional fiscal policies. So far, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have often been used to evaluate regional infrastructure investment policies. However, conventional CGE models do not consider financial assets, such as deposits, equities, and government bonds and decision- making mechanism of government. Therefore, applying CGE models might overestimate the benefit incidence of policies on the rural society. To confirm this theory, the RFCGE model was applied to regional infrastructure investment policy.

  E D P SCIENCES, 2017, INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON CIVIL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING 2016 (ISCEE 2016), 103, English

  [Refereed]

  International conference proceedings

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• Development of a CUE Model Considering Heterogeneous Households

  YAMAMOTO Hiromichi, KOIKE ATSUSHI, MIYAMOTO Yoshinao, TOMOKUNI Masashi

  2017, The Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Volume 12, pp1143 - 1162, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• INDUSTRIAL LOCATION AND VULNERABILITY TO NATURAL HAZARDS

  OTAZAWA TOSHIMORI, NAKAMURA Yuta, TORIO Kenta, KOIKE Atsushi

  This paper constructs a new economic geography (NEG) model incorporating a natural disaster risk and examines the interrelationship between industrial agglomeration and vulnerability of a spatial economy. We shows that the location pattern emerging as the market equilibrium is characterized by over-agglomeration
  and more vulnerable than that of social optimum. By analyzing the

  JSCE, Mar. 2016, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 72 (1), 99 - 112, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• 南海トラフ巨大地震による製油所被災の経済被害推計：多地域応用一般均衡モデルによる分析

  山崎 雅人, KOIKE ATSUSHI, 曽根 好徳

  2016, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), Vol.72 (No.5), I_111 - I_121, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 消費者の買い物行動時の選択店舗の相違が地域経済に及ぼす影響に関する研究

  宮川 愛由, 西 広樹, KOIKE ATSUSHI, 福田 崚, 佐藤 啓輔, 藤井 聡

  2016, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), Vol.72 (No.5), I_393 - I_405, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 産業の過剰集積がもたらす災 害脆弱性と交通インフラの減災施策

  織田澤 利守, 中村 優太, 鳥尾 健太, KOIKE ATSUSHI

  2016, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, 72 (1), pp.99 - 112, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• 交易・物資流動に関する既往統計と企業間取引データの特性比較

  佐藤 啓輔, 菊川 康彬, KOIKE ATSUSHI

  2016, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学, Vol.72 (No.5), I_201 - I_211, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 応用都市経済モデルにおける立地選択モデルの事後評価と発展方向

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 友國 純志, 山本 浩道

  2016, 土木学会論文集D3 (土木計画学), Vol.72 (No.5), I_695 - I_705, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 物流拠点を経由する都市間物流モデルの構築

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 片山慎太朗, 古市英士

  2015, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol. 71 (No. 5), I_553 – I_545, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 高速道路のリダンダンシー効果が地域経済に与える影響分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 定金 乾一郎, 古市英士, 片山慎太朗

  土木学会, 2015, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol. 71 (No. 5), I_201 – I_208, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Armingon Elasticities in the Multi-Regional Trade for the Transport Policy in Japan

  Atsushi Koike, Keisuke Sato

  2015, Uddevalla Symposium 2014 - Geography of Growth - The Frequency, Nature and Consequences of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Regions of Varying Density, pp507 - pp521, English

  [Refereed]

  International conference proceedings

• Calculation of Efficient CO₂ Emissions Reduction Quotas by the Nationwide Travel Demand Forecasting Model

  KOIKE Atsushi, SASAKI Yasuo, YAMASAKI Kiyoshi

  By using a travel demand forecasting model that covers both inner-city and inter-city transportations of whole of Japan, we discuss economically efficient regional CO₂ emissions reduction quotas. We calculate the CO₂ emissions reduction by introducing a fuel tax as a countermeasure against global warming at each region and illustrate the results can be applied to decide the regional quotas. In our analysis, it has been shown that the CO₂ emissions reduction per capita due to the taxation, which is equal to the region's reduction quota per capita, is bigger in rural areas than in urban areas.

  Japan Transport Research Institute, 2014, Transport Policy Studies' Review, 17 (2), 2 - 12, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• EVALUATION OF ECONOMIC DAMAGE OF GRATE EAST JAPAN EARTHQUAKE BY SCGE MODEL OF MUNICIPALITY LEVEL

  KOIKE Atsushi, SASAKI Tsuyoshi, SASAKI Yasuo, YAMASAKI Kiyoshi

  The purpose of this paper is to develop the SCGE model for finely-divided regions in order to conduct positive analysis and estimate economic impacts. In our study, the model deals with 2,342 cites in Japan and takes into account inter-regional freight transport, commuting and capital flows between each city.
  In the positive analysis, the developed model is applied to the case of Great East Japan Earthquake. The damage of the earthquake is expressed as decrease in the production efficiency of firms, which is assumed to be equivalent to the rate of capital stock decrease in the inland and coast regions in the suffered area, i.e., Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, and Ibaraki Prefecture. The result shows not only that large economic damage has occurred in these suffered areas, but also that the economic damage has affected all East Japan and industrial areas of Chubu, Kinki, Chugoku and Kyushu District.

  Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 2014, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. D3 (Infrastructure Planning and Management), 70 (5), I_151 - I_159, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 災害時のソーシャルメディアと帰宅行動の関連性分析

  榎本 甫, 桑野 将司, KOIKE ATSUSHI

  2014, 土木学会論文集D3, Vol.70 (No.1), pp.102 - 112, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• 交易に関する代替弾力性の時間安定性の検討

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, NAKA YOHEI

  土木学会, 2014, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.70 (No.5), I_161 - I_171, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 空間的応用一般均衡モデルを用いた中央アジア内陸国における道路整備の経済効果

  SATO KEISUKE, YOSHINO DAISUKE, KOIKE ATSUSHI

  土木学会, 2014, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.70 (No.5), I_229 - I_240, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 空間的応用一般均衡モデルにおける地域間交易モデルの特性分析－Armingtonアプローチと確率型空間価格均衡アプローチ－

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, SATO KEISUKE

  2014, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.70 (No.5), I_173 - I_186, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Short-and Long-Run Structural International Tourism Demand Modeling Based on the Dynamic AIDS Model:Empirical Research in Japan

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, Disuke YOSHINO

  2014, Asian Transport Studies, Volume3 (Issue1), pp.125 - 142, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 西日本における国土強靭化インフラ整備による総合的マクロ効果予測研究

  根津 佳樹, 神田佑亮, KOIKE ATSUSHI, 白水 靖郎, 藤井 聡

  2013, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.69 (No.4), I_265 - I_272, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 高速道路料金割引施策による経済効果の空間的帰着分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 右近 崇

  2013, 運輸政策研究, Vol.16 (No.2), pp.41 - 52, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 空間的応用一般均衡モデル「RAEM-Light」を用いた道路・港湾整備の効果分析

  佐藤 啓輔, KOIKE ATSUSHI, 川本 信秀

  2013, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.69 (No.5), I_283 - I_295, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• わが国の建設産業と技術進歩－全要素生産性を用いて－

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 和田 成夫

  2013, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.69 (No.4), I_265 - I_272, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

  Link to Kobe Univ. Repository (Kernel)
• The Spatial Economic Impacts of Road Network Development on the Tourism Industry-An Analysis Based on Estimates of Value-Added at the Municipal Level in Japan

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, Keisuke Sato

  2013, Proceedings of Uddevalla Symposium 2013, pp.425 - 441, English

  [Refereed]

  International conference proceedings

• Theoretical and Empirical Verification of the Inter-regional Trade Modeling in the Spatial CGE model for Transport Improvements

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  2013, 13th World Conference on Transportation Research Society (WCTR),RIo de Janeiro, Brazil, English

  [Refereed]

  International conference proceedings

• Spatial Incidence of Economic Benefit of Road-Network Investments: Case Studies under the Usual and Disaster Scenarios

  Atsushi Koike, Lori Tavasszy, Keisuke Sato, Toshiyuki Monma

  Road networks can be considered local public goods. Hence, if they are to be efficient social choices from an economic perspective, their spatial benefit incidence should be equal to their cost burden in each region. An analysis of benefit incidence should consider not only a usual scenario but also a disaster scenario because the redundancy effect is expected to reduce the amount of economic damage incurred during a disaster. The authors' research group has developed a spatial computable general equilibrium model (RAEM-Light) that can be applied to small spatial regions. The RAEM-Light model was used to analyze the benefit incidence in the development and maintenance stages of proposed road networks under a usual and a disaster scenario. The spatial incidence of the economic effect of road investment differs between the usual and the disaster scenarios for both the development and maintenance stages. As Japan becomes more decentralized, it will become more important to determine the optimum allocation of the road-network cost burden among local governments, taking into account differences in the spatial benefit incidence at each stage and in each scenario. However, to minimize the economic losses incurred by a disaster such as the Tohoku earthquake (March 11, 2011), more centralized decision making may be necessary, although this is not efficient social choice from an economic perspective. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000100. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

  ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS, Dec. 2012, JOURNAL OF INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS, 18 (4), 252 - 260, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 流動性の罠を考慮したDSGEモデルによる公共事業の効果に関する分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 漆谷 敏和, 樋野 誠一

  2012, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.68 (No.4 特集号論文集), I_21, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 特集「土木計画における経済均衡モデル研究の最新動向：応用一般均衡モデルと応用都市経済モデル」

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 石倉 智樹, 堤 盛人

  2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68 (No.4), 285 - 290, Japanese

  Scientific journal

• 電力供給不足による経済的影響分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 右近 崇

  2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68 (No.5), I_111, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 地域間交易の代替弾力性の推定

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 伊藤 佳祐, 中尾 拓也

  2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68 (No.5), I_55, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 地域の経済活動を考慮した水使用料金体系の検討-2都市における比較検討-

  杉本 泰亮, KOIKE ATSUSHI, 細井 由彦

  2012, 土木学会論文集G（環境）, Vol.68 (No.7), Ⅲ_175 - Ⅲ_183, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 社会・経済的産業関連表の構築による人口減少・高齢化の社会的影響分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 植原 雅子, 中尾 拓也

  2012, 第４９回環境工学研究フォーラム講演集, 199 - 201, Japanese

  Symposium

• 高速道路破断に伴う経済的影響の空間的把握－地域間産業連関表を用いた短期的影響分析－

  遠香 尚史, KOIKE ATSUSHI

  2012, 高速道路と自動車, 第55巻 (第3号), 18 - 26, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 高速道路整備による地域の人口及び経済変化に関する事後分析－固定効果モデルによるパネルデータ分析－

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 平井 健二, 佐藤 啓輔

  2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68 (No.4), 388 - 399, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 交通ネットワーク整備が観光産業の生産活動へ与える空間的影響の把握～鳥取・兵庫県の日本海地域における基礎自治体レベルの観光産業の付加価値推計をふまえた検討～

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, 佐藤 啓輔

  2012, 土木学会論文集D3, Vol.68 (No.5), I_349, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 応用都市経済モデルの課題と展望

  堤 盛人, 山崎 清, KOIKE ATSUSHI, 瀬谷 創

  2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68 (No.4), 344 - 357, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• インフレ・デフレ状況を内生化したケインズモデルによる公共投資効果の分析

  樋野 誠一, 門間 俊幸, KOIKE ATSUSHI, 中野 剛志, 藤井 聡

  2012, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.68 (No.4 特集号論文集), I_21, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• アジア高速鉄道整備の経済・環境影響の国際比較－旅客を考慮したSCGEモデルによる計量分析－

  宮下 光宏, KOIKE ATSUSHI, 上田 孝行

  2012, 土木学会論文集D3（土木計画学）, Vol.68 (No.4), 316 - 332, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 現下の経済動向を踏まえた公共投資効果に関する基礎的研究

  門間 俊幸, 樋野 誠一, 小池 淳司, 中野 剛志, 藤井 聡

  2011, 土木学会論文集Ｆ4（建設マネジメント）, Vol.67,No.4, I_327-I_338, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Impact Analysis of Water Price Reform of Zhangye, China

  Atsushi Koike, Zhongmin Xu, Kang Wang, Bunei Itoga

  2011, International Journal of GEOMATE, Vol. 1, No. 2 (Sl. No. 2), pp., English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• AI Demand Systemモデルによる交通需要弾力性推定による政策分析

  小池 淳司

  2011, 運輸政策研究, Vol.14 No.3,pp.2-8, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Efficiency and its determinant factors for smallholder farms in the Grain for Green Program on the Loess Plateau, China

  Li Li, Atsushi Tsunekawa, Mitsuru Tsubo, Atsushi Koike, Jijun Wang

  A nonparametric frontier approach, data envelopment analysis, was used to calculate technical, pure technical, cost, allocative and scale efficiencies of 112 farms participating in the Grain for Green Program on the Loess Plateau in China. The results indicate substantial cost inefficiencies. The main source of cost inefficiency was allocative inefficiency although considerable technical inefficiency also exists. Technical inefficiency resulted slightly more from scale inefficiency than from pure technical inefficiency. Scale inefficiency was mostly due to the suboptimal scale of farms. Regression analysis of explanatory variables against technical efficiency, allocative efficiency and scale efficiency suggested that LG_Agri (indicator for farm size) was the only variable that was significantly related to all three efficiency indices. Other significant variables include Remittance Ratio (indicator for rural-urban migration), Tenancy Ratio (indicator for land tenancy) and Simpson Index (indicator for land fragmentation). Our findings prompt policy suggestions that would facilitate labor mobility, provide more secure land tenure and increase land consolidation, while avoiding further withdrawal of cultivated land unless explicit measures to alleviate the potential impact on production efficiency are followed.

  WFL PUBL, Jul. 2010, JOURNAL OF FOOD AGRICULTURE & ENVIRONMENT, 8 (3-4), 772 - 778, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Assessing total factor productivity and efficiency change for farms participating in Grain for Green program in China: A case study from Ansai, Loess Plateau

  Li Li, Atsushi Tsunekawa, Mitsuru Tsubo, Atsushi Koike, Jijun Wang

  In 1999, the Grain for Green program (also known as Sloping Land Conversion program), one of the world's largest land-conservation programs, was launched in China. It emphasizes both eco-environment rehabilitation and poverty alleviation, with the ultimate goal of sustainable development. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has important implications for conservation of the environment, enhancement of wellbeing, food self-sufficiency, and the sustainability of the program. Using data from the year before and the ending year of the first phase, we did a case study in the Zhifanggou watershed on China's Loess Plateau. We used a Data-Envelopment-Analysis based on Malmquist TFP index approach to find out the changes of TFP, the sources of TFP growth, and the determinant factors at a farm level. We found that 1) TFP has been greatly improved after the implementation of the program and 2) the sole source of TFP growth is technological growth. In contrast, the technical efficiency of farms under the improved technology has decreased; 3) farms with an unfavorable initial state benefited more after the introduction of the program; and 4) land terracing and access to credit contributed significantly to TFP growth and technological growth. Land terracing is positively related to technical efficiency change, too. Extension services are positively related to technological growth, while age is negatively related to technical efficiency change. We therefore suggest a focus on terracing slopes, improving access to credit and extension services.

  WFL PUBL, Apr. 2010, JOURNAL OF FOOD AGRICULTURE & ENVIRONMENT, 8 (2), 1185 - 1192, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Effect analysis of regional development policy using a spatial numerical model of general equilibrium

  Peter Jarosi, Koike Atsushi, Mark Thissen, Attila Varga

  Feb. 2010, Kozgazdasagi Szemle, Vol.LVII, pp.165-180, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 地方の社会資本整備についての分配的公正心理に関する研究

  MONMA Toshiyuki, NAKAMURA Takao, KOIKE Atsushi, FUJII Satoshi

  2010, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.27,No.1,pp.71-80, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 防災計画のための空間被害分布分析

  KOIKE Atsushi, YAMADA Katsuya

  2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.141-148, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 道路ネットワーク整備が人口・社会構成へ及ぼす影響分析-中国地方におけるパネルデータ分析

  KOIKE Atsushi

  2009, IATSS Review, Vol.34,No.1,pp.6-14, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 港湾取扱貨物量を明示化した道路ネットワーク評価モデルの構築~応用一般均衡モデル「RAEM-Light」を用いたアプローチ~

  KOIKE Atsushi, KAWAMOTO Nobuhide, SATO Keisuke

  2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.189-196, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 港湾貨物取扱貨物量の変化が中国地方の道路ネットワーク整備効果へ与える影響-東アジアの経済成長を視野に入れた検討-

  SATO Keisuke, KOIKE Atsushi, KAWAMOTO Nobuhide

  2009, IATSS Review, Vol.34,No.1,pp.34-44, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 空間的応用一般均衡分析における地域細分化による道路整備便益の影響分析

  KOIKE Atsushi, KATAYAMA Shintaro, KAWAMOTO Nobuhide

  2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.209-218, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 空間的応用一般均衡モデル「RAEM-Light」を用いた道路ネットワーク評価~地域間公平性の視点からの実務的アプローチ~

  KOIKE Atsushi, SATO Keisuke, KAWAMOTO Nobuhide

  2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.161-168, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Spatial Equity Analysis on Expressway Network Development in Japan Empirical Approach Using the Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model RAEM-Light

  Atsushi Koike, Lori Tavasszy, Keisuke Sato

  The authors apply the RAEM-Light model to analyze the distribution of social benefits from expressway network projects from the viewpoint of spatial equity. The RAEM-Light model has some innovative features. The spatial behavior of producers and consumers is explicitly described and is endogenously determined by using econometric production and consumption functions. This model applies a slightly different concept than the traditional spatial computable general equilibrium model that does not depend on the input-output data. It is therefore well suited for analyzing detailed areas for which official input-output data are not available (i.e., its zones are subdivided into a neighborhood area level). In this paper, the authors analyze two expressway network scenarios. In Scenario 1, the regional economic impacts from the present expressway network are simulated. In this base case simulation, it is concluded that the present expressway network has a low score on spatial equity, in particular because of negative impacts on rural areas. In Scenario 2, the authors analyze the present and future expressway network case in rural areas. As compared with Scenario 1, negative impacts from the implementation of the expressway network are reduced, especially in rural areas. This comparative analysis quantified the effectiveness of the two network structures from the viewpoint of spatial equity. Theoretically and quantitatively comprehensive studies from the viewpoint of spatial equity on the effects of infrastructure development have not yet been sufficiently conducted; however, the results of the comparative analysis are promising for an economic assessment of the expressway networks from the point of spatial equity.

  NATL ACAD SCIENCES, 2009, TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD, Volume 2133, pp.46-55 (2133), 46 - 55, English

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• SCGE Model Construction and Simulation Analysis of the Agricultural Subsidy Policy in China

  Mu Yueying, Atsushi KOIKE

  2009, Journal of Quantitative & Technical Economics, Vol.26, No.1, pp.3-15, Chinese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Impact analysis on China cotton economy from cotton subsidies cancellation by developed countries: Based on the spatial computable general equilibrium model

  MU Yue-ying, XHAO Xia, KOIKE Atsushi

  2009, Systems Engineering -Theory & Practice, Vol.29, No.10, pp.13-20, Chinese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• DEA手法による公営企業の運営効率性評価-公営バス事業を事例とした評価

  HIRAI Kenji, KOIKE Atsushi, KITA Hideyuki

  2009, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.26,pp.133-140, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 準動学的SCGEモデルによる国際物流需要予測および港湾整備の便益評価

  HIGAKi Fumihiko, MIZUTANI Makoto, TSUCHIYA Kazuyuki, KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki

  2008, 運輸政策研究, Vol.10,No.4,pp.21-32, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 帰着便益分析による道路ネットワーク整備の公平性評価

  KOIKE Atsushi, SATO Keisuke, KAWAMOTO Nobuhide

  2008, 高速道路と自動車, Vol.51,No.12,pp.27-33, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• パネルデータ分析による道路ネットワーク整備の事後分析

  KOIKE Atsushi, SATO Yusuke

  2008, 高速道路と自動車, Vol.51,No.7,pp.23-30, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 独占的競争モデルによる災害の空間的応用一般均衡分析

  KOIKE Atsushi, HOSOE Nobuhiro, SHIMOMURA Ken-Ichi, Katayama Shintaro

  Oct. 2007, 国民経済雑誌, 196巻,4号,pp1-18, Japanese

  Scientific journal

• 公共事業の便益帰着と費用負担の空間構造

  KOIKE Atsushi, NISHIO Akiko

  2007, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.24,pp.51-58, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 空間的応用一般均衡モデルを用いた交通需要予測の事後評価の可能性

  KOIKE Atsushi, OHTAGAKI Akira, TSUCHIYA Kazuyuki

  2007, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.24,pp.67-74, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 新潟県中越地震における磐越道・上信越道のリダンダンシー効果

  KOIKE Atsushi, UKON Takashi

  2006, 高速道路と自動車, Vol.49,No.7,pp.17-26, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 将来社会経済シナリオ下でのSCGEモデルによる道路投資評価

  KOIKE Atsushi, UKON TAkashi, MIYASHITA Mitsuhiro, SATO Takashi

  2006, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.23,pp.59-66, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 集積の経済性を考慮した準動学SCGEモデルによる都市部交通渋滞の影響評価

  KOIKE Atsushi, KAWAMOTO Nobuhide

  2006, 土木計画学研究・論文集, pp.179-186, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 社会資本スピルオーバー効果の県間比較

  KOIKE Atsushi, NISHIO Akiko

  2006, 土木計画学研究・論文集, pp.203-209, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• スマトラ沖地震の経済被害評価

  KOIKE Atsushi, OHTAGAKI Akira

  2006, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.23,pp.273-280, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 地域間のフェイス・トゥ・フェイス・コミュニケーションによる生産性の向上を考慮したSCGEモデルの検討

  TSUCHIYA Kazuyuki, KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki

  2005, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.22,pp.111-120, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• Spatial benefit incidence analysis of airport capacity expansion: Application of SCGE model to the Haneda project

  T Ueda, A Koike, K Yamaguchi, K Tsuchiya

  In this chapter, we develop a SCGE model that covers the entire nation of Japan to clearly analyze the spillover impacts of the Haneda airport project. We then describe the spatial incidence of the project's benefits. Benefit incidence is summarized in a benefit incidence table (BIT), which clearly shows the canceling out of indirect benefits and distribution of benefits by region and economic sector. Major findings include (i) the expansion of Haneda can bring a large amount of benefit to all regions in Japan, particularly peripheral regions and (ii) consumption at trip destination increases in Hokkaido, Kanto, Kyushu, and Okinawa.

  JAI-ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2005, Global Competition in Transportation Markets: Analysis and Policy Making, 13, 165 - 196, English

  [Refereed]

  International conference proceedings

• Air service development of local airports and its influence on the formation of aviation networks

  H Kita, A Koike, K Tanimoto

  This chapter focuses on strategic actions of local governments to enrich aviation services to their local airports, and analyzes the influence of these actions on the formation process of aviation networks. Air service development action gives an influence not only on the airport but also on other airports because of the existence of network externality. This study models such an interdependent and path-dependent situation as a repeated n-person non-cooperative game. Numerical analysis shows that competition between local governments using subsidies for petition flights forms a regional hub endogenously under certain conditions.

  JAI-ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2005, Global Competition in Transportation Markets: Analysis and Policy Making, 13, 233 - 249, English

  [Refereed]

  International conference proceedings

• 中国における農業関税削減政策による社会厚生効果の計量分析-空間的応用一般均衡モデルを

  Mu Yueying, KOIKE Atsushi, Kozo KASAHARA, UKON Takashi

  2004, 農林業問題研究, 第40巻・第1号,pp.97-102, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 地域産業政策評価のための応用一般均衡分析フレーム

  KOIKE Atsushi, SATO Keisuke, UKON Takashi

  2004, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.21,pp.217-224, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 社会資本ストック崩壊による経済的被害の空間的把握―空間的応用一般均衡モデルによる計量厚生分析―

  KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki, AKIYOSHI Seiji

  2004, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.21,pp.367-374, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• A Model of Spatial Computable Equilibrium Analysis and Its Use in Analyzing China Agricultural Customs Tariff Policy

  Mu Yueying, Atsushi KOIKE, Kozo KASAHARA

  2004, Quantitative and Technical Economics, Economics, Vol.21, No.8, pp.19, Chinese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 都市圏レベルの応用一般均衡モデルの開発と応用

  KOIKE Atsushi, ISHIKAWA Yoshifumi, UEDA Takayuki, KOUNO Mitsugu

  2003, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.20,pp.79-85, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 社会資本整備の世代間厚生分析―世代重複型応用一般均衡モデルの開発と応用―

  KOIKE Atsushi, IWAGAMI Kazuki, UEDA Takayuki

  2003, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.20,pp.155-162, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 道路整備による地域別帰着便益の簡易計測手法の開発

  SATO Tetsuji, KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki

  2002, 高速道路と自動車, 第45巻,第10号,pp.37-44, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 社会資本ストック整備効果計測に関する研究―生産関数アプローチと応用一般均衡分析による理論的・実証的比較―

  KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki, ITO Katsuhiko

  2002, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.19,pp.123-128, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 旅客トリップを明示したSCGEモデルの構築とその応用

  KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki, MIYASHITA Mitsuhiro

  2000, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.17,pp.237-245, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 便益帰着構成表アプローチの現状と発展方向について

  UEDA Takayuki, TAKAGI Akiyoshi, MORISUGI Hisayoshi, KOIKE Atsushi

  1999, 運輸政策研究, Vol.2,No.2,pp.2-12, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 人的資本形成から見た都市群システム分析

  KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki, MIURA Mitsutoshi

  1999, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.16,pp.217-224, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 高齢者対策としての社会資本整備の国土構造に与える影響分析

  KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki, TOMITA Takahiro

  1999, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.16,pp.201-206, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• ミクロ行動理論に基づく交通-立地モデルの開発

  KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki, KOMORI Toshifumi

  1997, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.14,pp.259-267, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 首都機能移転効果分析のための一般均衡モデルと帰着便益連関表

  KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki, MORISUGI Hisayoshi

  1996, 応用地域学研究, 第2号,pp.179-187, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 2都市モデルを用いた交通整備の評価に関する研究

  KOIKE Atsushi, UEDA Takayuki, MORISUGI Hisayoshi

  1996, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.13,pp.289-294, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 排出ガス制御政策からみた自動車燃料価格水準に関する考察

  MORISUGI Hisayoshi, OHNO Eiji, KOIKE Atsushi, SUZUKI Shinji

  1995, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.12,pp.739-746, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 首都機能移転の地域間便益帰着構造

  MORISUGI Hisayoshi, KOIKE Atsushi, SATO Hironobu

  1995, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.12,pp.131-140, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 自動車交通の公平な燃料価格水準

  MORISUGI Hisayoshi, KOIKE Atsushi, MUTOH Shinichi

  1995, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.12,pp.283-294, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 公園整備事業の便益評価-新しい非市場評価法の提案-

  MORISUGI Hisayoshi, OHNO Eiji, KOIKE Atsushi, MUTOH Shinichi

  1995, 土木学会論文集, No.518,IV-28,pp.135-144, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

• 海面上昇の被害とその対策の便益の計測手法

  MORISUGI Hisayoshi, OHNO Eiji, KOIKE Atsushi, TAKAGI Akiyoshi, TAKAHASHI Yasuhide

  1995, 土木計画学研究・論文集, Vol.12,pp.141-150, Japanese

  [Refereed]

  Scientific journal

MISC

• 費用便益分析と空間的応用一般均衡分析の役割分担

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  2018, 運輸と経済, 第78巻 (第7号), pp.84 - 87, Japanese

  Introduction scientific journal

• 今後の費用便益分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  2017, 交通工学, Vol.52 (No2), pp.66 - 71, Japanese

  Introduction scientific journal

• 道路のストック効果は計測可能なのか？

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  2016, 高速道路と自動車, 第59巻 (第2号), pp.5 - 8, Japanese

  Introduction scientific journal

Books etc

• インフラを科学する―波及効果のエビデンス

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  Joint work, 中央経済社, Nov. 2018, Japanese

  Scholarly book

• 社会資本整備の空間経済分析

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  Single work, コロナ社, 2018, Japanese

  Scholarly book

• Policies to Extend the Life of Road Assets

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  Joint work, International Transport Forum,OECD, 2018, English

  Scholarly book

• ようこそドボク学科へ！

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  Others, 学芸出版, Mar. 2015, Japanese

  General book

• 都市間交通と気候変動

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  Others, 一般財団法人運輸政策研究機構, 2014, Japanese

  Scholarly book

• Intercity Transport and Climate Change

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  Others, Springer, 2014, English

  Scholarly book

• 公共事業の思想―文化創造としての公共事業とその最前線

  KOIKE ATSUSHI

  Others, 理工図書, 2012, Japanese

  Scholarly book

Presentations

• 貨物輸送の時間価値計測のための新たな手法の提案

  小池淳司,髙村望,山崎雅人,織田沢利守

  第61回土木計画学研究発表会, 14 Jun. 2020, Japanese

  Oral presentation

• 建設産業の市場特性と雇用問題

  向山潤, 小池淳司

  第61回土木計画学研究発表会, 13 Jun. 2020, Japanese

  Oral presentation

• 防災資本を考慮した動学マクロ経済モデルによる社会資本整備水準

  坂口拓洋, 小池淳司, 瀬木俊輔

  第59回土木計画学研究発表会, 09 Jun. 2019, Japanese

  Oral presentation

• 地域別公共敏によるクラウディングイン・アウト効果の計量

  小池淳司,森真太朗

  第59回土木計画学研究発表会, 09 Jun. 2019, Japanese

  Oral presentation

• 産業の過剰集積がもたらす災害脆弱性と交通インフラの減災施策

  OTAZAWA TOSHIMORI, NAKAMURA Yuta, TORIO Kenta, KOIKE ATSUSHI

  第52回土木計画学研究発表会, Nov. 2015, Japanese, 土木学会土木計画学研究委員会, 秋田大学, Domestic conference

  Oral presentation

• Industrial Location and Vulnerability to Natural Hazards

  OTAZAWA TOSHIMORI, KOIKE ATSUSHI

  The 5th International Seminar on Integration of Spatial Computable General Equilibrium and Transport Modeling, Oct. 2015, English, Kobe University, International conference

  Oral presentation

Research Projects

• Optimal level of infrastructure related expenses -theoretical and empirical approach-

  小池 淳司, 瀬谷 創, 石倉 智樹, 織田澤 利守

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2019 - 31 Mar. 2022

• Development of the integrated methodology to assess the economic effects of transport project and disaster prevention project

  石倉 智樹, 小池 淳司, 山崎 雅人

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Tokyo Metropolitan University, 01 Apr. 2019 - 31 Mar. 2022

• レジリエンス投資のマクロ計量経済モデルシステムの構築と具体的強靭化方針の提案

  藤井 聡, 田中 皓介, 小池 淳司

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kyoto University, 01 Apr. 2018 - 31 Mar. 2021

  本研究は、南海トラフ地震などの巨大災害がもたらす国民経済への影響と対策の効果について、定量的な分析を可能にするシミュレーションモデルを構築し、今後実施されるべき我が国のレジリエンス強化施策の必要性や妥当性を検討するための技術的な枠組みを提供することを目的としている。 2018年度に実施したのは、主として、道路ネットワークに関する予測モデルの構築である。高速道路、国道、都道府県道、市町村道のそれぞれについて、道路の特性（耐震化の状況、電線類地中化の状況、道路周辺の土地の利用形態、等）と地震の規模等（震度及び津波浸水）に応じて、道路リンクが破断つまり利用不可になる確率を求めるモデルを構築するため、必要なデータの収集と、数パターンの分析を実施した。東日本大震災時の道路インフラの特性と被害データを用いてモデルを構築するが、被害については、特定の道路リンクが破断したか否かを示す直接的な調査データは存在しないため、震災前後の民間プローブデータから、道路リンクの破断状況を推測することとした。 分析の結果として、入手可能なデータから一定の精度で道路の破断確率を求めるモデルが構築されたと言える。既存の研究においては、交通インフラに関する実務的に利用可能な被害モデルが十分には検討されてきていないため、南海トラフ地震をはじめとする将来発生が予想される震災の被害予測に向けて有意義な前進ができたと言える。 ただし、橋梁の耐震化や電線類の地中化といったレジリエンス強化施策の効果については、効果が存在することは確認されたものの、その規模は想定したよりも小さなものであった。その原因として、東日本大震災時の耐震化や地中化の実施状況に関するデータが、十分に詳細な計測単位では得られなかったことが挙げられる。今後、より精度の高い分析に向けて、新たなデータの利用等を検討する必要がある。

• Wider economic impacts assessment of transportation infrastructure resilience improvement in an agglomeration economy

  織田澤 利守, 多々納 裕一, 小池 淳司

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2016 - 31 Mar. 2019

  本研究の目的は，(A)災害による 間接的被害の波及過程における産業集積の負の効果を明示的に考慮した分析枠組みを構築し，社会的厚生及び災害脆弱性の観点 から均衡産業立地構造の性質や防災・減災施策の影響について分析を行うこと，(B)災害リスクと集積の経済を同時に考慮した，防災・減災施策による「幅広い」 便益の計測法を提案すること，(C )我が国の現状を踏まえた数値事例分析に基づき，災害に強い産業立地構造の在り方について考察することである．上記の(A)及び(B)のテーマに関して，前年度に構築した中間財を考慮した産業集積モデルの分析を進めた．具体的には，都市間道路の防災投資が産業立地構造に及ぼす影響について，産業立地構造の変化を集積の経済性の水準に応じた3つのパターンに分類できることを数値分析によって示した．また，都市間道路の防災投資がもたらす便益をHarberger(1964) の便益計測式を用いて整理した上で，特定した3つのパターンについて各便益項目の符号を整理した．特に，防災投資によって危険地域への集積が進展する場合に，災害時に倒産リスクにさらされる企業が増加することによってかえって負の便益が発生する条件を明らかにした点は本研究に独自の貢献である．以上の成果をまとめた論文は学術論文集に掲載されている．また(C)のテーマについては，災害による経済被害評価の高度化に向けた空間的応用一般均衡（SCGE）モデルの適用可能性（Kajitani and Tatano,2018） や代替弾力性推定手法（Yamazaki et al.,2018）に関する検討を行い，それらの成果をまとめた論文も学術論文集に掲載されている．

  Competitive research funding

• Social economic analysis and evaluation method for dabble-network road investments.

  KOIKE Atsushi, Tavasszy Lori. A., TU Delft

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2018, Principal investigator

  In order to decrease a risk in case of emergency such as traffic congestion due to catastrophic events, to build a double or triple network of highway seems effective. It clearly shows that new manufacturing factory locates in the area where the alternative route to major cities is developed. ”Redundancy Effects” in this study means that shortening of transportation time of the alternative route to major cities promotes manufacturing factory location. The purpose of this study is to estimate this effect by using fixed effect model. As a result of estimation, redundancy effects were observed in some areas. Many of these areas are far from the urban area.

  Competitive research funding

• Study on the introduction of concept 'commons' in sustainable regional design method

  TSUKIHASHI Osamu

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2014 - 31 Mar. 2018

  We have introduced the commons concept, which has been actively studied in the fields of environmental studies, economics, etc., to practical planning of architecture. And since we have been working as a researcher in Otsuchi Town, Iwate prefecture, based on the collection of memory testimony by model WS which is continuing support activities in Project Otsuchi Media Commons (MLA), we aimed to construct a commons regeneration model in the disaster area. We revised our research method due to the fact that it took time to compile the massive testimony gathered as practical data and of the town changed the policy the reconstruction project and delayed plan. We made a digital archive of model workshops and testimonies made experimentally in other areas and modeled how to utilize them.

  Competitive research funding

• STUDY ON EFFECTS OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOR ON REGIONAL ECONOMY

  MIYAKAWA AYU, FUJII Satoshi, KOIKE Atsushi

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Kyoto University, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2017

  Although it is important to understand the influence of consumer behavior on regional economy, as far as we know, no empirical research has been conducted in Japan. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the economic impact of consumer’s behavior on regional economy. We investigated two local merchants and four chain stores in Kyoto-city in order to compare the local economic return of consumption. As a result it was shown that if some shopping is done at local merchant, approximately 52% of consumption revenue will return to local economy, however if some shopping is done at chain store, the return rate will become about its half. This result suggests us about a desirable consumer behavior for regional vitalization.

• Consistency, complementarity and integration systems between trade-flow and transport-flow data

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, Tavasszy Lori. A., Davydenko Igor. Y.

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2015 - 31 Mar. 2017, Principal investigator

  Spatial economic analysis requires an inter-regional trade data as monetary term like Input-Output table. Although the empirical policy study requires the analysis on subdivided area, however, we only have the Input-Output table on the 9 regional data in Japan. Therefore, this research shows the characteristic comparison between statistical data on inter-regional trade/freight data and inter-enterprise data by using simple statistical methods. As a conclusion, we show the inter-regional freight census data by MLIT and inter-enterprise data by TDB is effective index to subdivide into small region. But inter-regional freight census data is only for the prefectural level, inter-enterprise data can be applied at municipality level although we have to solve some problem to apply the model. Also, we make a model to estimate Gross transport data from Net transport data. It will be help us to estimate some inter-regional trade flow on subdivided are.

  Competitive research funding

• Redefinition of Infrastructure and Visualization of Social and Engineering Effects - Toward Construction of Sustainable Social Design -

  YAMAZAKI JUICHI, SUN Yuping, FUJITANI Hideo, AKUTAGAWA Shinichi, IRYO Takamasa, KOIKE Atsushi, KITA Hideyuki

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research, Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2014 - 31 Mar. 2016

  This study aims to consider the redefinition and a new concept of next-generation infrastructure that becomes the foundation of life and national land. Interdisciplinary exchanges in the Kobe University and network formation of collaborative research in Japan and overseas have been promoted. Environmental vision of the next generation and social strategy that leads to it has been set as a common theme. Toward the research goals for the construction of sustainable environmental design studies, to promote the following four points; (1) new social infrastructure issues that appeared on the earthquake reconstruction, (2) evaluation of smart infrastructure using big data, (3) the next generation fusion research project of the resilient architecture and civil engineering structure, and construction of an international network, (4) visualization of infrastructure development, the research network development was promoted through collaboration with the private sector and the public agencies.

  Competitive research funding

• ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SOCIAL MEDIA INFORMATION AND RETURNING HOME IN DISASTERS

  KOIKE ATSUSHI, IRYO Takamasa, MURATA Masaki, KUWANO Masashi, OTAZAWA Toshimori

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Kobe University, 01 Apr. 2012 - 31 Mar. 2015, Principal investigator

  The aim of this study is to clarify the relationship between social media information and returning home behavior in disaster. In order to analyze Twitter’s textual data, which is tweeted in the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March, 2011, this study applies text-mining approach. The results of text-mining confirm the trend of collocation’s network among terms after the Earthquake happened, and the distribution of term co-occurrence frequency. On the other hand, using the returning home data sets on 11 March, 2011 collected, this study calculate the differences of estimated population between one point and the former point. Moreover, using the two data sets, this study analyzed the relationship between both using a canonical correlation analysis. Term co-occurrence frequency in Social Media and behavior of returning home is applied to two sets of variables in canonical analysis, and the estimation results demonstrated that these two are significantly interdependent.

  Competitive research funding

• 二国間交流「第五回応用一般均衡分析と交通分析の統合に関する国際セミナー」

  小池 淳司

  日本学術振興会, 二国間交流事業（オランダとのセミナー）, 2015, Principal investigator

  Competitive research funding

• 二国間交流「情報・交通社会資本整備による地域開発効果の比較分析」

  小池 淳司

  日本学術振興会, 二国間交流事業（韓国との共同研究）, 2015, Principal investigator

  Competitive research funding

• 二国間交流「情報・交通社会資本整備による地域開発効果の比較分析」

  小池 淳司

  二国間交流事業（韓国との共同研究）, 2014, Principal investigator

  Competitive research funding

• 地方公共団体における地球温暖化対策実行計画等の実施に伴う環境・経済・社会への影響分析

  小池 淳司

  環境経済の政策研究, 2013, Principal investigator

  Competitive research funding

• Micro- and Macro-analysis of Pro-patent Policies

  HATANAKA Kaori, KUMAGAI Reiko, KOIKE Atsushi, HOSOE Nobuhiro, TAKARADA Yasuhiro, AKIYAMA Shuichi

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, 2009 - 2012

  We develop a research framework encompassing microeconomic approaches, such as industrial organization, and macroeconomic approaches, such regional and international trade, to investigate economic impacts of development and uses of new technologies. Our series ofstudies examined microeconomic issues related to research and development, such as a grant-back provision, smart-meters as well as impacts of such kind of technology-related issues from a macroeconomic perspective.

• 地方公共団体における地球温暖化対策実行計画等の実施に伴う環境・経済・社会への影響分析

  小池 淳司

  環境経済の政策研究, 2012, Principal investigator

  Competitive research funding

• A Study on effective provision of transportation infrastructures by interregional cooperation

  FUKUYAMA Kei, ANDO Asao, KOIKE Atsushi, NA Jong-il

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Tottori University, 2009 - 2011

  This research focuses on the cooperative provision of inter-regional transport infrastructure by multiple local governments. A theoretical model is developed by employing general equilibrium modeling and non-cooperative game theory. With the model, strategic behaviors and therefore their consequent results such as a provision level of infrastructure are investigated. It is especially shown that decision timing and substitution/compliment characteristics of investment function play key roles.

• the applications of Rural Area Social Accounting Matrix in consideration of time resources

  KOIKE Atsushi, TANIMOTO Keishi

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), 2009 - 2011

  The aim of this research is to construct a base economic data in order to analyze social issues on rural areas. Traditional economic data is not enough to analyze these regions, because of resource on these regions is not only labor and capital but also time and social capitals. So, we proposed Rural Area Social Accounting Matrix in consideration of time resources and its applications. Use this data, we can find somefuture social issues from the numerical simulations.

• 過疎地における時間概念を考慮した社会会計表の構築に関する基礎的研究

  小池 敦司

  科学研究費補助金／基盤研究(C), 2011

  Competitive research funding

• Management and evaluation methodologies for public environmental works in small municipalities encountering opulation decrease

  HOSOI Yoshihiko, TANIMOTO Keishi, MASUDA Takanori, KOIKE Atsushi

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Tottori University, 2008 - 2010

  Methodologies of sustainable management for public environmental works in small municipalities suffering population decrease and budget deficit. Measures for them were evaluated from both sides of local government and citizens. nvironmental public works like sewerage are often financial burden of small municipalities. Therefore, measures to manage environmental public works with holistic view of municipal policies were developed. At the same time, their effects on residents' utility and fairness were evaluated.

• Construction of an Environmental SAM and policy analysis by using applied general equilibrium model

  ISHIKAWA Yoshifumi, KOIKE ATSUSHI, UEDA Takayuki

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Nanzan University, 2007 - 2008

  本研究では、特定地域を対象とした詳細な環境SAMの作成手法を検討し、実際に愛知県を対象とした試作表を作成した。作成した環境SAMを用いることによって、詳細な産業部門別で環境負荷の実態が把握可能であり、産業連関表の情報を最大限に取り入れた環境SAMが提示できた。また、これを用いた地域政策の応用一般均衡分析として廃棄物問題を取り上げ、自治体によるごみ袋有料化制度の影響分析を行うためのモデル構築を行った。

• Environmental planning and maintenance methodology in small municipalities encountering depopulation and aging

  HOSOI Yoshihiko, MASUDA Takanori, KITA Hideyuki, KOIKE Atsushi, TANIMOTO Keishi

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Tottori University, 2005 - 2006

  Japan is encountering population decrease and aging and has debt of 770 trillion. Local governments are in difficult situation due to the increase in people who need social welfare and budget deficit. Especially it is remarkable in small municipalities. Water supply, domestic waste water treatment and waste treatment are important jobs for a local government. These systems have been planned with the assumption of population increase until now. However we have to change our minds for depopulating age. In this research, new planning methodologies for depopulating age were examined. The overview about situation of small municipalities concerning population decrease and aging were shown and the subjects about planning and maintenance were indicated. Next, various methods to solve problems of environmental facilities due to depopulation and aging were examined. In facility developments, the choice method between concentrated system and diffused system was discussed. In maintenance method, planning about patrolling of diffused facilities and promotion method to use sewerage system were examined. The effects of sewerage system development method on municipality finance and local economy were examined. On the basis of the above practical studies, general methodologies were studied. The importance of satisfaction of each local governmental service from viewpoints of various age people and people's subconscious needs were emphasized. The methodology to consider spillover effect of projects was presented. The GIS technology for environmental control was examined.

• Toward Sustainable Improvement in Quality of Life : Theoretical and Statistical Analysis on Policy Assessments

  SHIMOMURA Ken-ichi, SHIRAHATA Shingo, FUKUSHIGE Mototsugu, YAMAJI Hidetoshi, HASHIMOTO Yoshizo, KOIKE Atsushi

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A), Kobe University, 2004 - 2006

  We conducted both theoretical and empirical analyses of policy assessments focusing on actual performances of economic policies. The analytical methods are economic theory, statistics, econometrics, and experimental economics. We regularly had meetings to check the processes and the results of works in progress, and finally published outputs of the researches. We form two research groups. One is a team to study environment, traffics and policy assessment, the members of which reviewed literatures of Japan and other countries about environmental and traffic problems such as garbage, industrial wastes, air pollutions, natural environment of sightseeing spots, and public transportation facilities. This group examined what kind of analytical methods and evaluation methods are suitable for these problems. Some of them carried out field surveys and hearing about the slow life and the recycling activities in the environmental policies of Italy. In addition, other members conducted cost-benefit analysis on the extension plan of the Osaka monorail, which is called "Saito project," with the choice experiment method. The other group specialized in the research of local public finance and the urban policy. They collected and analyzed data of sustainable growth of economies of remote islands and information disclosure problems of local governments. In particular, they employed questionnaire surveys to those who concern tourism of Amami Oshima Island and those who suffered from the Chuetsu earthquake. Some members also studied a tendency of convergence of income per capita based on data of the metropolitan area of Japan with Markov matrices. In the experimental economic analysis, other members showed that decentralized market mechanisms may not work out for unstable equilibria of perfect competition, or any types of equilibria of monopolistic competition. In the dynamic spatial general equilibrium analysis incorporated economies of scale, other members analyzed the influence of the traffic jam in the city part of the Netherlands from an aspect of the social economy and a living standard aspect, and investigated what influene congestions have on what type of industries.

• 応用一般均衡分析を用いた社会資本整備評価における便益推定誤差に関する研究

  小池 淳司

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), Tottori University, 2002 - 2004

  社会的要請から,社会資本整備の便益評価は,多くのプロジェクトで実施されるようになってきている.また,詳細な効果の帰着先を知る目的で,ミクロ行動理論に基づいた応用一般均衡分析による便益評価手法(帰着便益評価手法)が実施されるようになってきており,従来の需要予測に基づく消費者余剰による便益評価手法(発生便益評価手法)に変わろうとしている.しかし,応用一般均衡分析は,そのモデル構造が複雑なため,特定のパラメータの誤差が,最終的な便益評価にどれほど影響するかが明確でない.そのため,本研究では応用一般均衡モデルにおける誤差の整理とその便益評価に対する影響分析を実施することを目的としている.文献調査などの結果から,応用一般均衡モデルには以下のような3種類の誤差があると考えられる. 1)設定パラメータに含まれる誤差(例えば,代替弾力性パラメータの推定) 2)外性変数に含まれる誤差(例えば,政策変数の推定) 3)基準データセットに含まれる誤差(例えば,産業連関表の集計誤差) 本年度は,上記の誤差のうちで2),3)に関するモデル構築と実証研究を通じた推定誤差の範囲を特定し,最も重要なパラメータの特定化を行っている.その結果は,「社会資本ストック崩壊による経済的被害の空間的把握-空間的応用一般均衡分析による計量厚生分析-」(土木計画学研究・講演集),「47都道府県間産業連関表による震災被害推定のための空間的一般均衡モデル」(応用地域学会年次講演会)にて公表済みである.次年度以降,ある社会資本整備の評価を実施する場合にどのパラメータの精度に注意をすべきか,また,その場合の感度分析の指針を含めたマニュアル的な報告書をまとめる予定である.その結果は,便益評価結果の信頼性尺度とし,あるいは,評価モデルの妥当性を知る上で,大変重要であると考えられる.

• バスサービスの規制緩和に関する国際共同研究の企画調査

  喜多 秀行, 中川 大, 小池 淳司, 谷本 圭志, 高野 伸栄, 小林 潔司

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Tottori University, 2003 - 2003

  わが国の公共交通の歴史に残る"壮大な社会実験"とも言える乗合バス事業の規制緩和(平成14年2月施行)に対して関心を寄せている諸外国の研究者と共同研究を実施するための研究企画を行った.具体的には,共同研究を効率的に進めるための基盤形成を目的とし,以下の3つの点について検討を加えた. 第一は,"規制緩和に伴うバスサービスの変容に関わる情報のとりまとめ方についての概念整理"である.バスサービスの提供実態や影響の発現状況は地域特性や社会的環境と密接な関連を有しているため,費用関数の推定や生産性分析を予備的に行い,押さえておくべきデータ項目を抽出した. 第二は,共通の分析フレームの構築である.路線バス市場における供給側と需要側の行動は相互に影響を及ぼし合っており,規制や補助制度等が両者の行動を部分的に規定しているのだが,前述の地域特性や社会的環境とも密接な関連を有しているため,複雑な様相を見せている.そこで,関連諸要素を「利用者の活動水準曲線」「バス利用に関わる一般化費用曲線」「事業者の運賃設定曲線」等に整理するとともに,これらを相互に関連づけた分析フレームを構築し,個々の変化に対する分析の位置づけが容易に理解できるようにした. 第三は,国際共同研究を行うための研究体制の整備である.共同研究のメンバーとして予定している内外の研究者の関心は,"路線バスの規制緩和がもたらす影響の分析"という点では一致しているが,そのアプローチや着目点は必ずしも同一でない.研究組織を構成する研究者の研究アプローチと対象領域を整理し,作業の協力・分担関係を明らかにすることにより研究の推進体制を構築した. 以上により,政策が依拠する理論的基盤が教えるとおりの変容が生じたのか,それにより期待どおりの政策効果が得られたのか,を検証するための研究基盤を概ね構築しえたものと考えている.

• The Construction of Input-Output Table at Urban Area Level and Computable General Equilibrium Model for Urban Area

  ISHIKAWA Yoshifumi, UEDA Takayuki, KOIKE Atsushi

  Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C), Fuji Tokoha University, 2002 - 2003

  In this study, we developed an estimation method for Input-Output table at urban level and the CGE model for urban area in the context of open economy assumption. We first developed a method in order to construct input-output table at the urban area level using non-survey technique. When input-output tables are constructed, Estimation of interregional trade coefficients is important. In this study, we proposed a method for estimation of interregional trade using simple location quotient. And also, This research constructed a three-region interregional input-output model by dividing the whole country into three regions with the concept of hierarchical structure. In addition, we constructed a computable general equilibrium model in order to evaluate urban policy. Then, based on several case studies, we have shown that it is possible to conduct policy evaluation, using this model.